Member Info for Robjm66

USA got egg all over its face in Ethiopia asked for ceasefire government gave ceasefire rebels started trying to invade rest of country so USA zero credibility.
What will happen is the government will gradually roll back the rebels into Tigray then government will hold all the cards over what happens next. Already the rebel advances have been slowed to a crawl,stopped or reversed.

As for arms discussion over whether it’s iran turkey or Israel suppling or all three supplying Ethiopia with drones.

31 October deadline realistic yes…if not met? Then it has not been met…no one interested in prolonging things…everyone is pushing… just have to make sure security and documentation are in in hand.

Local investors.. Kefi welcomes new local investors.

Why not name big investors…they are not interested in noise kefi has to respect that.

What if someone backs out? Hypothetical question jump at every shadow… strong project.

Risk factors and mitigation….issues nothing to do with kefi…Consortium happy with Kefi though friction at times but strong relationships…TK will be a shoe in.

Local investors anyone signed? how much of ten million outstanding…they are not part 63 percent kefi has not closed.

Hawiah QE deadline for bankable deposit…project already bankable…Kefi taking upto gearing…seeing how good it is but it will be built…

Closing remarks….harry been criticized for taking questions…Kefi taking the brunt of being the first cab of the rank but do not worry kefi will finish it.

Leaks to papers…we do not leak…

Leak from ministry of mines? Things talked about the company before we even hear from about it our-self…anxiety and lust for development is palpable..pressure on ministry to perform..electioneering pressures…local politics… they are just trying to get a deal done…licence in good standing…a lot of noise.

Jobs..those jobs will be filled hopefully locally part of programme.

Keeping the lights on.. 300000 burn rate monthly..standby facilities from shareholders till wrapped up after all the deals.Possible exception to that Hawiah…if clear needed..standard burn rate lifted at times.

31 October if money not received company will not go bust?…no will not go bust.

Funding requirement to TK increased? All info in RNS full comparison there.
Stakeholders in TK in one room to commit…Covid complicates things but eventually probably yes first week of October meeting as a syndicate.

Why closing expected in July…closing expected in July (depending on certain conditions) now bit more capital but not quite ready to close but close.

Full funding why signing waiting? Three issues…paperwork lawyers highly advanced second getting confirmations just takes longer than you expect of should…ministry of mines learning process..third category will the country be ready ministers and country. Tigray slowed things down but situation going away rapidly…CNN anti Ethiopian reporting…last two weeks now Afghanistan.

30-45 minutes lots of questions happy to answer through web site not covered covering Hawiah bigger yes. Partners already funding their share…next step there?

Heap leach at Hawiah before TK no TK will be in operation before.. though Heap leach looks viable. News on Jubal Qutman? still stuck but will come good.

Future share price in in future and October…based on simple NPV ten or twenty times multiple in stock as projects are de-risked and come on stream.

Why did share price go down this week he can only guess better to ask sharetraders.

Do you worry about political turmoil in Ethiopia…yes if there had not been any conflict would have been done and dusted six months ago but harry confident in Ethiopians and their backing. Frustrating delays could hurt project? Kefi small company, have to deliver to consortium everything they need, its up to kefi to satisfy them. Kefi in the middle of doing something fantastic, kefi has to bend over backwards (no s******ing) for syndicate,everyone here, busy waiting documentation.

Would he do it all again…yes and no.

Security? We will get there everyone wants it to go ahead security has to be independently judged should get results in a month happening right now as a precursor to closing. Other issue calm of the country? If country was banned like Iran not going to happen but noise has disturbed people so people have to be reassured but TK seems to be coming.

Travel to Ethiopia? he is there now spends half his time there.

How long has harry been in Kefi…9 years harry talking about his time at kefi…is he enjoying job he is sick of delays but he can taste how close kefi is … team doing all it can kefi never been closer he can see Ethiopia is getting on top of things. Government building their country, a serious country. It will happen.

From my research if you look a bit further than BBC CNN Tigray rebels increasingly on the back foot. Would expect Tigray rebels to be rolled back further as Ethiopia gets fresh troops and drones and the weather improves enough to use the Air Force.

Think the west and its politicians are going to be watching Afghanistan more anyway
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“ However the bulls of this 'company' have yet to address the issue of what happens if HAA raises the cash? ” if harry raises the cash for TK share price will go up and you will have zero credibility.

Kefi responded to previous warning and licence was not taken away which meant Kefi would have got an extension. Ethiopian mining ministry or a “source” should not really be leaking a running commentary on the progress of TK or confidential negotiations.

Do not expect kefi to speculate but my guess is some political postering is going on kind of “we are getting tough with a foreign mining company to get this deal done” or could be they just used the threat to get a better deal which looks like they got.

Thanks for the good news though obvious they were not going to take the licence in contradiction to your previous posts.

we have carefully reviewed the extension of your request. It has been decided that you will be given an extension until October 31, 2021. "The extension is based on a consensus that you will be able to find work to finance the mining project during this period," the letter said.

Speaking to The Reporter, Dr. Kebede Hailu, head of the Tulu Kapi Gold Mining Limited, a company established by Ethiopian law, said the project is financially viable and can be started soon.
He said the project could be implemented if the required license from the National Bank is obtained on time and other matters that need to be addressed by other government agencies are completed soon.

1. Subject to final procurement confirmations this month, TKGM capital requirement is c.$US356M
2. Mining contractor to provide US$56M mining fleet and Senior Lenders to provide US$140M, leaving US$160M to be provided as Equity-Risk-Capital
3. Equity-Risk Capital to be provided by Government US$29M and Local Private Investors US$10M into TKGM alongside KEFI Group for c. US$121M
4. KEFI Group’s c. US$121M planned in the following manner:
a. Subordinated non-convertible, offtake-linked US$50M
b. Subordinated convertible into KEFI at VWAP in 3 years US$20M
c. Mining development costs payable in KEFI shares in 2 years US$22M
d. Internal cash generation during commissioning and final equity to be subscribed when all syndicate has signed up, US$29M

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/958467/kefi-gold--copper-presents-their-mining-opportunities-in-ethiopia-and-saudi-arabia-958467.html

“meant that certain locally-owned parties were able to commit faster than a foreign-owned investor and also better support social licencing.“ More money is actually going to Ethiopians and we are well past the date given in a previous article about mining licence that was superseded anyway by the recent article showing Ethiopian support.

Hawiah is being used as Kefi leverage to help with TK funding hence the conversion of shares two and three years down the track from backers that actually know something about mining. Market in general actually has not recognised the progress in Saudi so potential hardily pumped up if anything it’s understated.

Apples and oranges really but,..

Katoro Gold says the Tanzania project is early stage and we all know that mining projects take time.

The South African project is not a mine but reprocessing of tailings so in theory should be more straightforward the project status is mid – Definitive Feasibility. However was held up by political unrest. Do not not know enough about the company or the project to say much more than that.

Kefi lot more news flow and interaction with investors. TK hopefully just around the corner from getting the go ahead and Hawiah progressing really fast. I would say more long term potential here as kefi could crack two new mining markets.

An encouraging case is emerging for a potential +30,000 oz gold heap-leach open-cut operation of oxide material whilst the main Hawiah Project is being developed. This scenario of mining and leaching near-surface gold mineralisation will be evaluated in parallel with the updated MRE.

we have yet to locate the 'feeder zone' to the massive sulphide lodes, which represents a separate and potentially much larger-scale target.

clear potential for expansion of resources with further drilling below the currently drilled depth of 350m of this structurally consistent tabular structure.
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Nearly finished this phase of drilling then just waiting for lab results it’s huge and likely to get bigger with the potential of finding the feeder zone and open a depth.

So big now looking at open-leech in advance of the main mine which should mean less money to be raised and that it will be generating money earlier.

From Kefi Website Q and A section.

Why does the % TKGM that KEFI expects to own change from time to time?
The various factors that we need to balance are as follows:

we provide guidance as we progress, rather than to say nothing until it is done;
raising the bulk of $356 million with minimal equity dilution by forming a syndicate of a dozen parties means there are moving parts pending closing; and
the recent instability in Ethiopia meant that certain locally-owned parties were able to commit faster than a foreign-owned investor and also better support social licencing.

Should get more detail at the mining down under conference Kefi did produce a video before.

Kefi also down as a sponsor.

Https://www.africadownunderconference.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2021/08/Africa-Down-Under-2021_Conference-Programme_v2.pdf

Wednesday 1 September 2021

Session Three:
15:10 Harry Anagnostaras-Adams, Executive Chairman, KEFI Gold and Copper (15

Scipio the share of Kefi shares that get converted in two and three years down the track has actually dropped from 59 million to 42 million. By then kefi will be a totally different animal as hawiah and Saudi would have come into play. The deal is structured the way it is as the company knows Hawiah is bigger than TK and will get even bigger and it will start to get recognised after TK gets over the line.

There is some progress and fine tuning but biggest uplift in shareprice will come when everyone signs on the dotted line now expected in October. The increased amount of funding does show confidence that this will get done though.

The Global Mining Finance Specialist is an active investor in Africa and elsewhere and will, upon closing, have the right to appoint a Director to TKGM as well as other monitoring and oversight rights;
·    Local Subsidiary of International Group: this organisation has a long-standing presence in Ethiopia and sees this is an opportunity to reinvest accumulated local profits into an important new sector for the country Its rights to convert subordinated loans into shares of KEFI after 3 years (after a year of production) is designed to avoid KEFI dilution at pre-production share prices

Cost-overrun facility: If the planned cost overrun facility remains unutilised upon Project completion (successful commencement of production as judged by Senior Lenders), it is proposed that those funds may be utilised to fund the initial mine development to the +5 g/t underground deposit.

Capital expenditure estimates for the open pit now cater for anticipated cost-inflation of approximately 10% overall

Tulu Kapi full funding package of US$356 million Assembled

Advanced conditional approvals, which have already been received, account for c.63% of the US$356 million aggregated funding sources and the remaining c.37% (c.US$131 million) is expected to come from existing identified parties working alongside those who have already resolved their conditional approval.

We are finalising outstanding documentation for all parties to allow the funds to flow for full Project development from October this year.
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Looking at the figures there is a lot more head room, while they are getting less from local subsidiaries they are getting more from federal and regional governments and off-taker. Also less of the amount is being converted into Kefi shares further down the track which for an overall increased amount is an achievement.

It’s a pain that everyone looks to be signing now in October but only a week away from September however the 70 percent Kefi share looks set now suggesting that this date should be firmer.

Not aimed at Kefi two obvious issues the recent rise in inflation in the country (like everywhere else) affecting loans and to avoid TFLF supporters selling off their assets to avoid confiscation and finance their side in the conflict.

Had rampant corruption under the TPLF one of the reasons gold revenue has jumped so much the disruption of smuggling and a lot of money going into back pockets before.

https://nz.news.yahoo.com/banks-ordered-temporarily-suspend-lending-111457910.html

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-02/ethiopia-gold-exports-surge-after-crackdown-on-smuggling

https://newbusinessethiopia.com/mining/ethiopia-gold-export-generates-600-million/

http://www.madote.com/2016/06/martin-plaut-caught-using-albanian.html