Member Info for RMM3383

Just thinking out loud.... If 1801 was to achieve PoC against Covid then it would be silly to licence it before we knew which way the lab tests were going and whilst the Government might be prepared to fund fast track clinical trials I suspect that a big Pharma would also be knocking at the gates. Any positive news that emerges from Pampisford over the next few months is going to be formative IMHO. That doesn't mean to say that I'm not going to be impatient but its got to be worth the wait!!

The Recovery Trial does seem to be getting some serious exposure today. I even caught the back end of the 1.00 News on the BBC today where there was a pretty reasonable run through of the therapeutic options being investigated. Maybe the penny has dropped?

Without wishing to plug the Covid angle the need for a holistic response (ie therapeutics, not just vaccines) has been raised by the wonderful BBC. We could be sequencing (managing) the virus for 10 years and that means being able to manage the symptoms as well as innoculate and minimise the spread. I looked at the global market for cold/flu/pneumonia remedies and its around $60bn even before Covid. If 1801 proves relevant to this sector then its a blockbuster. GLA
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-56019995

Lucan - simply reinforcing the message that vaccines are not the answer. They are only part of the answer. In the meantime we shouldn't allow the powers that be to ignore the long term killers. To reinforce the point BMS have today announced that Opdivo has made good progress and Dana Walker makes a key point IMHO - “By moving immunotherapy into earlier stages of cancer, we may have the chance to disrupt the course of the disease, reducing recurrence and leading to better outcomes for patients,” Dana Walker, VP and development program lead for genitourinary cancers, said in a statement. “Opdivo-based therapy has now shown benefit not only as an adjuvant treatment in urothelial cancer, but also in earlier-stage melanoma, esophageal and lung cancer.” In other words get in early. I feel for RonnieR and the delays to his treatment. Spread the word and disrupt the media obsession with the vaccine but lets disrupt positively by offering up a holistic solution - vaccine+therapeutics+cultural change.
https://endpts.com/bristol-myers-squibb-pulls-the-curtain-on-phiii-data-to-back-opdivo-in-the-adjuvant-setting/

No, its based on an Exosome that targets the CD-24 protein.

Yesterday I made the mistake of switching on the BBC News. One of their tame Doctors was 'explaining' the latest developments around the Covid vaccine sage and made the statement that 'the vaccine is the only way out of this situation'. Really? Now that's her opinion not fact. With over 4,000 variants already identified and others on the way there's no way a vaccine is going to be anything other than a blunderbuss shooting at a moving target. Meanwhile in Tel Aviv they've developed an inhaler that targets the cytokine storm in the lungs. Doesn't require a medical expert to administer it, reduces recovery time to 3-5 days and because it goes directly into the lungs could signifcantly reduce the transmission of the virus. It's patently obvious that we are going to have to learn to live with this virus thus 'experts' saying that the vaccine is the only solution is a false premise. Meanwhile more evidence is emerging of the long term effects of delayed treatments, particularly for cancers. 'A four week delay in treatment is associated with an increase in mortality across all common forms of cancer treatment, with longer delays being increasingly detrimental. In light of these results, policies focused on minimising system level delays in cancer treatment initiation could improve population level survival outcomes.'
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4087
At the moment the NHS is being stretched by Covid but there's virtually no flu cases. That's the good news. In another 12 months time we will almost certainly have the flu back with us (the flu vaccine developers have already flagged that with nothing to work on this year they will struggle to design a flu jab for 2021/2) along with mutant strains of Covid 19 that don't respond to vaccines. However, by then we will have a backlog of cancer cases that were either not diagnosed (because people were too scared to go to the GP/Hospital) or who had their treatment delayed with the result that they are now several stages further on than they should be. I would love 1801 to prove effective against the cytokine storm but more importantly I would love to see 1801, 1802 and 737 hit the clinic and be ready for when the cancer storm hits the NHS. We need to broaden the debate beyond the Covid Vaccine and I thought recently the politicians might be getting the message. Unfortunately with broadcasters like the BBC its a broken record approach to journalism that is undermining the broader story. Hopefully the BoD are simply getting on with it and I look forward to an update when relevant. GLA

Ceres Power - A close friend pointed me at this company. They consolidated at 10:1 in July 18. Since then they've grown conservatively until the middle of last year when they really started to put on weight. In the last 12 months they've gone from a low of £2.31 to a high of £16.26 and currently trade at £14.36. That's a multi bagger in my books - a factor of 6-7. With the right plan a consolidation is not a value destroyer. The key for me is getting out of the penny share rut and getting a market cap that moves us onto SETS.

Hi Stach - not sure about your maths but by my calculations 1bn shares would bring in £20m at 2p. That would certainly get us into the clinic. I'm not a fan of consolidations on their own as too often its followed up by a placing. However, if it was part of a bigger plan with a partner and there was the opportunity to raise both the market cap and get us out of the penny share category then I'd go for it as institutions would look at us differently and the SP should be less volatile but still open to re-rates as the drugs progress.

Deucravacitinib - A pure TYK2 that does not target JAK1, 2 or 3. Good safety profile although at higher doses nasopharyngitis is a notable side effect but not a black box warning.
https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/interest-tyk2-might-soon-tick

Potnak - You are correct. Alliance Trust is down as an Instituional Holder when in fact its private investors with SIPPs.
https://markets.ft.com/data/equities/tearsheet/profile?s=SAR:LSE

Hi Krone - thanks for posting the link. What struck me was how specific Tim was about our TYK2/JAK1 molecules versus the generation 1 molecules that also inhibit JAK2 and JAK3. We appear to have clear differentiation. Also I liked the relevance to Covid and Pneumonia. PR seems to be mounting and timescales more specific. GLA

In the wake of GameStop a useful article from Forbes on how the market is manipulated. Worth a read:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johntobey/2021/02/01/stock-market-manipulation/?sh=4117042f7eb2

Hi BoilB - The more I read the more important the JAK/STAT pathway becomes. However, I can also see that when targeting the pathway the inhibitor needs to be very specific otherwise the side effects could be extreme. I think this may be why the first generation drugs have acquired the 'warnings' and why Tim and John are focused on getting the formulation as clean as possible.

One of the symptoms for Long Covid is (as a few poster will know) is 'Brain Fog'. With Lupus one of the symptoms is 'headaches, confusion and memory loss'. Then there is Alzheimers/Dementia with the much publicised memory issues. Looking at a paper published over 10 years ag (https://www.jneurosci.org/content/30/20/6873) there does appear to be a link between TYK2/STAT3 signalling and brain function. Much of recent research has focused on the Cytokine Storm and how TYK2 might help alleviate these symptoms. However, there may well be a broader connection. Should TYK2 (and our 1801) prove effective against the cytokine storm it might also prove effective against the brain fog of long Covid. That would then take us into the realms of Dementia. I'm not saying that this is a silver bullet cure but as part of the arsenal to treat Dementia it could be a significant player. The global market for Dementia is currently >$1tn and growing. Whilst I still feel 1801 PoC for Covid is an adjunct for what the drug could do there's a growing case that this class of inhibitors needs to be tested against a broad selection of indications. If PoC gets us into the clinic faster then it really would open up the possiblities for both 1801 and 1802 and variants thereof. I can now see even more reason why we should hang on to these molecules and their patents until someone with very deep pockets is prepared to pay a market value. GLA LTH's

Just had to take a break from Stout sampling. It’s not the predicted 5%, it’s a damned sight stronger that. Enjoy your evg folks!! Ps Thoth - Have you tried the Flaming Hot Wotsits? Slightly worried that the dog also likes them....

Sod the sex and drugs. My sons brewed 50 pints of stout and made his own sausages. I suspect that tomorrow I will be fit for nothing but watching youtube. Keep posting the links please Thoth!

Baserite - I fear that you miss my underlying theme which is that I have no respect for any politicians nor do I support the rubbish that the media pedal on their behalf or to their own end. My experience of Westminster, Brussels and elsewhere is that if you have a problem the last thing you should do is involve politicians. This is why we have slow progress with environmental issues, economics and now health. I'm afraid its a fact of life that when there is a queue someone is at the front and someone at the back. I suspect that while the EU are throwing brickbats around that AZN are moving heaven and earth quite simply because money is involved. As to British Exceptionalism I assume you are referring to the level of deaths associated with Covid in the UK? Try as I may, and I've had a lifetime in statistics, I cannot reconcile how the likes of other countries are reporting their infection and death rates with how we are reporting in the UK. Its a bloodbath the world over and whilst Johnson has not covered himself in glory I'm not too sure I'd hold up any global leader and say 'that's how we should do it'. Johnny Foreigner is not the enemy but red tape, politics and poor journalism are. My apologies if I've offended your sensibilities but I've been secretly hoping that this pandemic might actually speed up a cure for long term killers like cancer by demonstrating that with a combined effort we can actually accelerate the science. Unfortunately I fear that my hopes will be dashed by those in 'higher positions'. In the meantime I'll return to my (global) market models. GLA

Building on the political ineptitude I'm sort of rather enjoying the AZN/EU spat over the vaccine. The EU are now demanding that the UK make up the shortfall in 'promised' vaccines to the EU. That they were 3 months behind the UK in ordering the vaccine, that they promised E300m to support its development but have yet to pay up combined with the fact that they haven't even approved the vaccine is a summary of just how over endowed with red tap and self promoting policies Brussels is. And now we have the Germans declaring they wouldn't give it to over 65's anyway because the clinical trials data isn't robust enough. Presumably they wont give the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines to anyone with diabetes or hypertension either as the clinical trials for both versions excluded both conditions. Lets hear it for the politicians who party while Rome burns.

Probably not the best recommendation! I seem to recall that Bingham was accused of not declaring a conflict of interest plus a bit of 'pocket lining'.

BoilB - Good find and extract. We are now 12 months into understanding the nuances of the virus and the multiple routes that will be needed to successfully manage it. I noticed this morning an article titled 'Vaccines steal the headlines but our path out of the pandemic will also need test and trace'. To which I mentally added 'and therapeutics'. It was a sensible prompt that far too much attention is focused on the vaccine when a more holistic approach is required. But then politicians have never been renowned for joined up thinking.