Member Info for RMM3383

Hi Krone – Hope you are well and thanks for inviting me to comment. Here’s where I’m at. SAR is not a pure Covid stock but there is no escaping the fact that we are going to be heavily impacted by the pandemic and this is why I think this way. There has been a big change this week with Italy and France going into a 3rd lockdown with others to follow. Forget the political carnage over the vaccine roll out and the AZN safety nonsense the big issues are that there isn’t enough to go round, the manufacturing plants are short of capacity and raw materials and the virus continues to mutate. The virus will be with us for a long time to come, a significant proportion of the world population won’t be able to have the vaccine, for a significant number it won’t work and then there’s the anti-vaxxers. Not long ago the focus was moving towards therapeutics but then the vaccine programmes kicked in and overnight we were all saved! The travel industry went into overdrive. Only a few weeks on and big warning signs are emerging that the vaccine programme will not get us back to a normality any time soon. As I’ve said before, there will be a big market for therapeutics because I believe that Covid is going to become the new Flu and we’ll never be completely free of it. Currently this has two core ramifications for SAR. If POC proves effective it accelerates everything around TYK2. Health services the world over will not be able to hide behind Covid for much longer as waiting lists grow for Cancer, Heart Disease etc. Being able to treat Covid is just as important as being able to stop it because it is then manageable. Even if 1801 is not effective against Covid nothing has changed in terms of the urgency to get it into clinics for the target indications. However, the underlying factor that worries me (having spoken to relatives and friends in the sector) is the pressure on laboratories and the raw materials for the experiments. Both have been adversely affected by the pandemic. As a consequence I am expecting delays but weeks possibly months not years. My view, FWIW, is that we will get news on 737 first because I suspect that Stephen Dilly has been busy for the last 6 months lining up his ducks and I think it will be within weeks. I’m then expecting a comprehensive update from the SAR board on progress with the CTA for 1801 and how they are going to fund it. We may even get a progress report on the Covid POC although I think this is still a little way out but happy to be proven wrong. Without POC on Covid we’ll go into the clinic with 1801 in H2 2021 as scheduled, with POC the whole thing could accelerate dramatically. Part 2 next......

Good find - I particularly like the bit ' It’s an incredibly exciting time to be working on selective TYK2 inhibitors, and a hopeful juncture for patients with autoimmune disease as well. With luck, this year will see the decisive evidence that marks tykinibs such as deucravacitinib and Nimbus’ own clinical candidate as a distinctive new class of therapeutics.'
This year......

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-srra/sierra-oncology/news/chief-development-officer-barbara-klencke-just-bought-162-more-shares-in-sierra-oncology-inc-nasdaqsrra

https://simplywall.st/stocks/us/pharmaceuticals-biotech/nasdaq-srra/sierra-oncology/news/chief-development-officer-barbara-klencke-just-bought-162-more-shares-in-sierra-oncology-inc-nasdaqsrra
She's been there since 2015 but now clearly thinks its time to invest.

Boil - Unfortunately that's an old description as it also merntions 141 which they handed back in the middle of last year. The big news is the director buys and the options. Just a little patience required now......

Barbara Klencke bought a shed load of shares a while back so she now has a very significant holding. It can't be down to Momelot as they are still over a year away from news. Something else is in the pipeline..... GLA

Hi Potnak - could be both! We raise money, get milestones from Sierra and sign a partnership on 1801. That way we retain a lot of the equity and get 1801 to a point where the data commands big bucks for handing over a licence.

I don't put Stephen Dilly in the same category as Nick Glover and I don't rule out getting news from Sierra in the not too distant future. Covid is now having a big impact on lab space, raw materials and manufacturing processes not to mention all the problems of getting clinical trials underway. It may be an unpopular view but I think we should expect some delays in getting feedback/news from both Sierra and SAR. On top of this the Bed&ISA merchants will be filling their boots at the current price! Can't say I blame them!! GLA

Hi Del. Have a look at this:
https://bciq.biocentury.com/targets/tyrosine_kinase_2_(tyk2)
BMS, Pfizer, Nimbus and Ventyx are all active in Crohn's. I don't rule out SAR at some point.
ATB.

Hi Krone - if Sierra had no intention of taking 737 further then they wouldn't be wasting money on lawyers and patent applications. I'll draw my own conclusions from that and allow others to do likewise.

Before Stephen Parker's purchased it would appear that he had no shares in MGC. In comparison at SAR he has a significant share options holding plus his wife invested her own money at a time when no news was forthcoming. With a company update due at the end of March I'd be amazed if he was allowed to trade without someone shouting 'Foul!' if the price went up or even down. Director's buying usually means a fallow period when you invest for the future rather than short term gain. My take (not advice!) is that MGC aren't going anywhere soon whereas at SAR its very much about the agenda over the next few weeks and months. For those looking for a meaningless distraction while we wait you can always make nominations for Best Actor/Actress in Public Dirty Linen Laundering and Most Ingratiating Interviewer of the Year. Plenty of options in both categories after last night! Meanwhile back on Planet Earth I have a living to earn......

https://inews.co.uk/news/health/avoid-thousands-extra-heart-attacks-strokes-ministers-warned-902334
125k Covid related deaths in the last 14 months, 166,000 deaths from Cancer in the last 12 months, 160,000 deaths from Heart Disease in the last 12 months and 66,000 deaths from just Dementia in the last 12 months. The pipeline for the big, long term killers is now looking frightening and non-diagnosis of heart disease and cancer will soon make the Covid related death rate look insignificant. The number of scans to identify heart disease is down over 40% and diagnoses of Diabetes is 25% behind the curve. The news today is filled with children going back to school (important for many) and two bleating spoiled brats complaining about how tough they've had it (completely unimportant). Hopefully the team at Pampisford are on the case to help resolve treatments for the big killers. Here's hoping for an update later this month that really grabs the headlines for all the right reasons. GLA

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-new-study-to-examine-vaccine-responses-in-patients-with-impaired-immune-systems-12233737
Interesting that those conditions excluded from the vaccine clinical trials are now coming under scrutiny in terms of vaccine effectiveness. In the trials not only were children and over 85's excluded but also those with autoimmune condition s, diabetes and hypertension. If the vaccine isn't as effective with these conditions (plus cancers) then the importance of inhibitors becomes even more relevant. Bit of a double whammy - 1801/2 could address both the conditions (autoimmune and cancer) and improve vaccine efficacy. The wait for PoC is both exciting and frustrating! GLA

https://endpts.com/merck-pulls-keytruda-in-sclc-after-accelerated-nod-is-the-fda-getting-tough-on-drugmakers-that-dont-hit-their-marks/
Might we see a combo of 737 and Keytruda? On its own neither is effective enough but together......

Some interesting comments emerging from the government advisors on Covid - vaccine efficacy showing that the way forward is emerging but that the challenge is now to find a way to live with it and that means solutions for those who don't need hospitalisation but will need treatment. POC for 1801 remains a high priority but the real value will be getting 1801 and 1802 into the clinic for their respective diseases. My expectation is that once we get into the summer months the attention of the NHS will re-focus on the big killers - cancer, heart disease etc. It's already been flagged up that the waiting lists for non-covid related treatment is eye watering and for the politicians it will be a vote winner/loser depending on how they tackle it. Getting 1801 into the clinic has to be the focus but I'd also like to see 1802 following rapidly. Hopefully we'll get an update in the next few weeks. GLA

I think someone mentioned yesterday that we had probably been marked down on the back of the media pumping the story that the vaccines are working, lockdown is about to be eased so everything is rosy, we can all book summer holidays and get back to normality. As far as I can see getting back to normality is a long way off and as to the impact on SAR its minimal. Even if the vaccines prove 100% effective (which they won't)there will still be those who can't be vaccinated. On top of that if 1801 proves effective against respiratory diseases its a big win and even without Covid 1801 and 1802 remain hot prospects so nothing has changed. Then there's 737 - nothing good or bad has changed there. FLT3 - some progress made but back on the shelf, not written off. The MM's are going to play their games, people will speculate and some will have unrealistic expectations. We were told it would be 6 months to get 1801 through PoC for Covid so expecting news after less than 3 months is unrealistic. Hold tight, ignore the pessimists (and the over optimists), DYOR and draw your own conclusions. I'm sitting on my portfolio and my hands for the forseeable future. I'm with you Andy.

As we await the Half Year Report it looks suspiciously like a tree shake to get weak holders to part with their shares. How predictable!

Fadec - I quite agree that this is a targeted drug but you can't have trials targeting multiple indications without getting into all sorts of data difficulties and rampant costs. Much has been said about a fast track for Anogenital but the 2019 findings talk specifically about SCLC. The latter is a huge market in the US and my view, FWIW, is that any partner will look at the US as a primary market. In all fairness I would love to see 737 in combo with a range of drugs against a range of indications but Sierra do not have the funds nor do I think a large pharma would support such a broad set of trials. I'd be happy with one combo going up against one indication in order to break the stalemate.

Hi Krone - I'm not surprised by Dilly's comment. Earlier this week I was looking through their 'Late Breaking' 2019 presentation and its very clear that on its own it doesn't work but as a combo its impressive and as a 2 way combo its very impressive. I suspect the deep thoughts are who the two other partners could be and what indication(s) to go for? You don't put partnerships like this together overnight.

A Tweet yesterday, RNS today, confirmation that lab tests are underway, results within 6 months (max 4 to go), option to obtain grant funding for clinical trials. If you can't read between the lines then invest elsewhere. SAR have upped the PR and there's a debate on whether this should be an RNS??? GLA LTH's.