Member Info for rivaldo

New 13 page note out today from Progressive Equity Research summarising the Capital Markets Day

Https://www.progressive-research.com/research/cmd-emphasises-strong-positive-momentum/

A brief extract from the summary:

"Kape has market leading privacy and software products which provide a strong offering to consumers on a global basis. Crucially, the Group has continued to trade strongly in 2020 with increased demand for its products as remote working has become the norm.

This customer proposition and the Group’s proven user acquisition model combine to produce significant growth in customer numbers, revenue and EBITDA. The growing proportion of Software as a Service (SaaS) agreements adds to the excellent revenue visibility of the Group.

The impact of the earnings enhancing acquisition of PIA can be seen in the levels of revenue and EBITDA growth, 83% and 148% respectively, in our estimates for FY20, its first full year of ownership.

In all, we believe that Kape is in a position to grow strongly organically from the base which the management team has established following a series of complementary acquisitions. It also retains the ability to make more acquisitions through which it can further accelerate its strategic delivery."

Octopus have bought another 700,000 shares and now have 9.06m shares in total, or 11.03%:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/imimobile-plc--imo-/rns/holding-s--in-company/202007061705501756S/

They've doubled their holding since the start of the year.

Looks like today's rise is due to a £50,000 buy at 72.9p - very keen, as paying well above the 72p full offer price.

Fundraising approved - and the Open Offer oversubscribed. Hope I got a decent allocation....

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/inspiration-health--ihc-/rns/results-of-general-meeting---open-offer/202007061308311528S/

The original New Buy recommendation for VLG from Growth Company Investor's June issue has a few interesting snippets:

- the factory manufactired 26 million units last year, and capacity can be increased to 40 million for just £1m capex
- capacity can increase to 70 million for £4m capex, of course bringing greater returns to scale
- higher margins should arise from the greater volume of own brand sales, whcih will comprise 50% of revenues this year, up from 33% last year
- third party manufacturing will benefit from the EU's new Medical Device Regulations, which are "stimulating significant development projects from the customer base"
- sanitising hand gel production is from a machine which cost just £125k. This paid for itself within a month, and can produce up to 8 million units per annum. An order from a UK supermarket for 1m units is already "in the bag"

Good to see that cashew faciity construction is now progressing well - and "in time to capitalise on the 2021 peak harvest season".

Hopefully the directors are being conservative in preparing the market for a Q2'21 completion date, and perhaps we'll get a pleasant surprise in Q1:

Https://www.investegate.co.uk/dekel-agri-vision--dkl-/rns/arrival-of-cashew-project-infrastructure-equipment/202007060700090544S/

TST were tipped as follows on Friday, presumably in the late afternoon, which would account for the buying - hopefully further buying to come.

Anyone got access?

Https://www.*************.com/views/49870/touchstar-shares-further-recover-on-agm-update-more-to-come

"Touchstar – shares further recover on AGM update, more to come...

By HotStockRockets | Friday 3 July 2020

Touchstar (TST) has updated including “positive trading has flowed into greatly improved cashflow” – and the shares have currently responded nearly 20% higher to 55p..."

Aw shucks Dibs61 :o))

You're not so bad yourself.......

lor_9, the narrative about KAPE was posted earlier - there is no target price, but the Naked Trader concludes - and I agree - that KAPE is:

"One, I think for me to ignore any gyrations, relax with and keep in the isa for a good stretch."

There's a very thorough - and positive - new note out from Edison here:
https://www.edisongroup.com/publication/a-platform-business-looking-to-scale/27195

And you can find a good summary of the new note here (it's on Proactive Investors in case LSE asterisks it out!):

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/923394/centralnic-s-capital-markets-day-highlights-its-growing-opportunities-says-research-house-923394.html

"CentralNic's capital markets day highlights its growing opportunities says research house

Following the event, Edison forecast CentralNic's revenue to double this year to US$203mln and to rise again to US$214mln in 2021

CentralNic Group PLC’s (LON:CNIC) capital markets day last week highlighted the opportunity for the internet domain specialist to grow both organically and through acquisition, according to Edison.

The capital markets event covered the benefits of scale, cross-selling and the integration of new businesses through a robust, automated M&A process, reported the research house.

Management focused on the opportunities for the different service lines, it said, highlighting a shared service approach as management pushes for higher value-added services to drive organic growth over the next three years.

Following the event, Edison forecast CentralNic revenue to almost double this year to US$203mln and to rise again to US$214mln in 2021, while profits are tipped to reach US$18.9mln on a normalised basis this year and US$23.4mln a year later.

“CentralNic continues to trade on an FY20 EV/EBITDA of 9.1x and a P/E of 15.8x, a material discount to its peer group, with our DCF indicating further share price upside. M&A could bring CentralNic’s multiples down further,” the research note said."

I note that Desert Gold is up 17% today to CAD0.21, up from 0.17 recently. So CAPD's 6.2m shares are now worth around £770,000.

And Golden Rim has more than doubled to AUD0.014 from the recent 0.006, so CAPD's 76.9m shares are now worth £601,000.

https://tinyurl.com/y9xtnhvj

"The shares have outperformed which reflects the essential nature of the maintenance work Renew carries out in rail,
highways and telecoms. 80% of the workload has continued and CEO Paul Scott told us in mid-May that much of the
remainder, like land remediation and London Underground, is starting to come back. The Sellafield site has seen a
lockdown and will take longer to return. The interims to March also showed a positive financial performance with debt levels reduced by accelerated payments from Network Rail and VAT deferment. This is a timing benefit which will unwind next year but means year end net debt will be around £5m.

Management is ‘delighted’ with January’s acquisition of Cornell which provides an entry to the growing highways
market. Work here is very resilient and the new control period has seen the budget double to £11.9bn. This reflects the
government’s commitment to infrastructure spending which is unlikely to be diminished by covid-19. Renew has an underlying 5-6% growth rate which it augments by acquisitions and the p/e of 12.4x this year falling to 11.2x next offers good value given the relative security of its earnings. The interim dividend was passed but Scott said he “would be surprised if no final was paid."

on pages 6 and 7 - here's the part about 5G and the conclusion:
https://tinyurl.com/y9xtnhvj

"good prospects for near-term growth lie in 5G backhaul (getting data from a mobile user to the core network) which doubled last year to 10% of the division’s revenues. This will become a $300-500m market and MTI sells to four of the seven mobile infrastructure manufacturers. The company is particularly strong in street-level backhaul which is a $100m addressable market. Volumes are expected to ramp up in 5G in 2021 and margins will respond positively given the gearing from a relatively fixed R&D cost base. Antennae accounted for around 30% of revenues last year and 15% of profits."

"Valuation and outlook We spoke to Moni Borovitz in early March and again in midMay after the Q1 results release. Covid-19 does not appear to be much of a factor given the company’s geographic diversification and the nature of its customers. The Indian antennae factory was locked down for a period in March but has returned to work, while MTI has ‘essential’ status in Israel. Therefore “the second quarter will not be soft” according to Borovitz, who is “cautiously optimistic”. There is a good order book across the three divisions with Q1 revenues up 5% and operating margins ahead. On 5G infrastructure prospects, the company is seeing tenders for business coming through and makes the point that demand for bandwidth has reached record levels on the back of home working. The near term outlook for MTI looks to be more secure than it will be for many companies who will have been more affected by the pandemic. Prospects seem good across the business and the coming period should see an acceleration in antennas from the 5G investment cycle. The balance sheet looks strong and unusually for a small tech company there is a commitment to paying dividends, no doubt influenced by the family shareholding. In these uncertain times for dividends the shares make sense as an income play; but the forecast growth in earnings and dividends suggest a rerating is in order. The chart is healthy with the stock price almost back to pre-covid-19 levels, having hit 42p in February."

Cheers re the news of the Naked Trader buying back in. I was surprised he ever took profits considering the value and potential, so it's good to see him recognising that.

MWE look better and better the more I look at it.

They're on a current year ex-cash P/E of only 8.6.

And 45% of the m/cap is covered by the $8.6m cash pile plus tangible assets/receivables.

There can't be many companies offering that potent a combination of cheap multiples and secure asset backing anywhere in this current market.

Especially with exciting prospects in hot sectors like 5G and water irrigation and management.

This morning we get news of the second director purchase this week - an NED making her maiden purchase of £20k of shares:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/renew-RNWH/share-news/Renew-Holdings-PLC-Director-PDMR-Shareholding/82787578

How much more of a steer does the market need......

Very positive update from GCI:

Https://www.growthcompany.co.uk/gci-portfolio-update-july-2020-venture-life-2593816/

"Venture Life
Healthcare
29 Jun 2020

Ticker: VLG • Sector: Healthcare • Market cap: £69m • Share price: 82p • Buy

Last month’s reiterated recommendation at 66p is going well with profit upgrades coming through as we suggested they should. A trading update confirmed the Chinese distributor agreement and the overall health of the order book. Sanitising hand gel, branded Disinplus, is seeing good demand and Venture has extended its relationship with Alliance Pharma to become a second manufacturer of its Kelo-Cote scar treatment products. This extends the scope of Venture’s existing agreement with Alliance which runs to 2026 and we discussed the success the latter is having with Kelo-Cote (product revenue up 38% last year) in May’s Digest. Taking these factors together, management is “confident that it will comfortably excess market expectations for the year”.

Revenue is now expected to grow 50% this year with earnings rising 145% to 5.4p. This puts the stock on a p/e of 15.2x which looks modest in the context of the upgrade momentum, peer group valuations, and longer term growth opportunities. Venture’s factory has substantial spare capacity that can be switched on for a modest incremental capex outlay. Longer term forecasts see 6.3p for next year and 7.2p for 2022, underpinning the value that remains on offer despite the strong move in the stock so far this year."

The Capital Markets webcast is excellent and really worth a listen.

It's emphasised that CNIC have had a very good COVID-19 - and in particular that monetisation (Team Internet) have done well as online has grown and grown.

The Team Internet acquisition appears to have been a steal, in being acquired from a distressed seller at a bargain price and bringing in a team already known to CNIC.

There's also a video interview with a Zeus Capital analyst about CNIC:
https://www.*************.net/centralnic-group-potential-for-more-acquisitions-is-vast-say-zeus-interview/

The Zeus analyst points out that organic growth this year at some 15% is well ahead of the mere 4% that they've baked into their forecasts. Which bodes well.

I've bought a few more. There's some stock around at 86.9p, but not that much.

I've just topped up here. As I noted after the recent Q1 results, and updated for the most recent forecasts:

- the latest forecast is for 3.21p EPS this year, rising to 3.67p EPS next year
- MWE has a bullet-proof Balance Sheet, with $8.6m net cash (against a £30m m/cap)
- terrific $1.3m cash generation in Q1
- $0.67c EPS in Q1, up 4% on 2019 despite the pandemic
- Q1 is always seasonally lower, so this result is a good start to the year
- COVID-19 accelerating development of 5G "in just weeks"
- Mottech continuing to grow, particularly in China

Overall, "our results and the order book supports our budget planning for 2020", which sounds pretty encouraging.

In addiion, the Balance Sheet includes against that £30m m/cap:

- the $8.6m net cash, i.e around 8p per share
- $3.2m excess debtors/receivables over account payables
- $5.2m of property and other fixed assets

So over 45% of the m/cap is backed up by tangible assets/receivables.

If you strip out just the cash pile, then at 35.5p MWE are trading on a current year P/E of just 8.6.

And this for a company with excellent prospects in:

(1) water irrigation and control
(2) 5G and mobile which are being turbocharged by COVID-19
(3) electronics distribution and consultancy, which is now enjoying faster growth due to design wins over the last 2-3 years which are now resulting in contnuing revenue streams from commercialised products and which can last over 10 years.

Great to hear in the presentation that REAT will be working with Allenby to produce forecasts in the next month.

Also:

- net cash is now "substantially higher" than the £0.3m at the half year - even before the £1.16m (net) from the fundraising
- REAT have continued to trade "very strongly" since the half year
- COVID-19 is opening up cross-selling opportunities, increasing the pace of introductions into companies which would otherwise have taken a lot longer
- companies in the FM space have in the last week been making workspaces fit for purpose, and a number of clients have been in discussions as to how to cope with a second wave of COVID-19