RE: Excellent H1 numbers today - Cenkos upgrade to BUY1 Dec 2020 12:28
Here's the summary of Cenkos' upgrade to Buy:
"Firing Up
The Group’s cash generation and profitability remained robust in H1/21A despite the onset of COVID-19. This enabled the Group to pay down a further £8.2m of term loan principal, resulting in net debt declining 44.6% to £34.9m. In light of improving visibility in industrial electricity demand we release prudent FY21E and FY22E forecasts. We believe OPG is undervalued, trading at a c50% discount to its peer Group. We move our recommendation from Under Review to Buy.
?H1/21A Financial Performance.
The Group’s profitability remained robust despite the onset of COVID materially impacting trading in H1/21A. Government enforced lockdowns caused a reduction in industrial electricity demand. In response OPG reduced plant load factors and in turn generation (H1/21A 831m kWh vs H1/20A 1,440m kWh). This reduction combined with a 1% decline in tariff to 5.60Rs/kWh caused revenue to decline 54% to £36.1m. Adjusted EBITDA, including a one-off £9.6m collection of accrued contractual claims, increased 16% to £19.4m. This in conjunction with lower coal and freight costs supported the Group’s margin profile. As a result, EPS increased 48.2% to 2.9p per share.
?Deleveraging Strategy.
OPG has continued to deliver its deleveraging strategy, paying down a further £8.2m of term loan principal. The Group also refinanced a portion of its debt with non-convertible debentures (NCD), pushing repayments out to June 2022. As a result, net debt has reduced by 44.6% to £34.9m, comprised of £21.1m NCDs, £21.8m term loans, £1.4m working capital loans and £9.4m in cash. We expect the Group to fully repay its term loans by Q2/24, increasing free cash flow to equity and, in time, enabling cash distribution to shareholders via dividends.
?Forecast Re-initiation.
We release prudent FY21E and FY22E forecasts in light of ongoing macroeconomic aberrations in India. We expect revenue of £93.6m in FY21E and £112.2m in FY22E. Importantly, due to a one-off £9.6m collection of accrued contractual claims, EBITDA increases 6% YoY to £33.0m and in line with lower tariffsand marginally higher input costs, declines to £24.7m in FY22E. As a result, we expect adjusted diluted EPS of 3.4p and 1.8p in FY21E and FY22E, respectively.
?Investment Case.
We believe OPG trades below its fair value. The market continues to undervalue its improved capital structure, its highly profitable cash generative business model and the long-term structural dynamics for sustainable growth in the power generation sector. We believe the Group offers value to investors whilst trading at a c50% discount to its peer group (please see valuation section on page 7). We move our recommendation from Under Review to Buy"