RE: RNS : results will beat expectations.....29 Jun 2021 14:49
Good to see CSSG getting some attention on Stockopedia, with a new review by Jack Brumby in his market update yesterday. He concludes:
"Robust Trading
Both divisions have traded well since the start of the year and the impact of Covid-19 has been more than offset by strong performances elsewhere in the group. The board now anticipates a better result than previously expected, with FY EBITDA of at least £1.85m (2020: £1.75m). Taking the group’s net cash figure of £5.5m below and using that for the EV calculation, that looks like striking value on the face of it (EV/EBITDA of c3.85x).
Croma Systems (which includes the lockdown-affected locksmith stores) is expected to deliver an increases in sales and profits against the prior year.
Croma Vigilant, the largest division, is also expected to perform well against the prior year. This division has benefitted from the increased need for manned guarding and Proception services.
Balance sheet – no debt (excluding lease liabilities) with net cash of £5.5m. That’s highly significant given the market cap, as is the level of annual revenue.
Conclusion
Trading momentum is positive and if this is a viable business, then the shares are likely mispriced at current levels on account of the material net cash holding. Croma has struggled to increase net profits in line with revenue growth though.
Despite that, the group looks strongly cash generative so perhaps profits are understated.
With such a small market cap, corporate governance and depth of management are key considerations. Is there enough quality at the top to get Croma up to the next level in terms of scale? A quick look at indeed shows some mixed reviews from employees. By itself, not enough to come to any kind of conclusion, but it’s enough to suggest this is an area to investigate further. As noted above, it’s good to see some institutions present.
There’s probably potential here, but also clear risks primarily around liquidity – if there is ever a profit warning and you want to get out, it’s going to be tricky. This must partially explain the cheap valuation."