August production news & broker update12 Sep 2022 14:13
The August numbers themselves are pretty poor, to say the least.
But it's promising to actually see some optimism about CPO production in the narrative, which is the first such good news there's been for a while.
And cashews are at last starting to come together:
"we should be in a position to report a significant uplift in production capacity at the time of next month's report"
When the following sentence is true the this company will - finally - be transformed:
"We are entering an exciting phase of reaching our objective of operating an enlarged Company with two material revenue streams from 2023 onwards."
WH Ireland retain their 9p valuation today, and summarise:
"Today’s announcement from Dekel marks a significant milestone for the company’s cashew operation. While not unexpected, the news that all key items of equipment have now arrived at the cashew plant and are in the process of being commissioned is highly encouraging and further de-risks project expectations. Following a short period of installation and testing, the company expect that cashew production in October will see a step-change in daily output, which should support positive cashgeneration from the cashew business as early as Q4-22E. On the palm oil front, fresh fruit bunch (FBB) quantities remain depressed compared to strong prior year comparators; however, the company notes early indications in September that volumes may be trending upwards and we expect yields to normalise into next season. Palm oil pricing locally remains near all-time highs despite weakness in global markets, with DKL’s average selling price increasing month on month to €1,050 per tonne.
Overall, the next few months is set to be highly positive for DKL, with the cashew project now close to entering full production, CPO and PKO prices remaining strongly supportive, and the potential for an increase in FFB yields into the next high season. DKL’s two, fully-invested and profitable processing projects should shortly provide positive cash flows, supporting the company’s plans to reduce levels of debt and explore dividend payments in due course."
"Forecasts / Valuation
Trading on a forward EV/EBITDA of 5.5x, falling to 3.9x in FY24, and following a material de-risking to our forecasts for the cashew project over the last few months, we see significant upsides in value. We retain forecasts set on June 13th (see our initiation note : DKL Note) as well as our DCF and comparator-based fair value assessment of 9p"