Member Info for rivaldo

Finncap have updated - they've maintained their 425p price target and their 25.7p EPS forecast for this year, and have now increased their forecast to Jan'24 to 28.8p EPS.

That's a P/E at 262p of just 9.1.

The year end trading update is out and is very encouraging.

SUR are nicely in line with expectations of 8.1p historic EPS despite market conditions.

Above all, the order book has jumped up materially - it's now £585m, which the RNS notes compares to £503m a year ago, but perhaps more interestingly compares to £512m only six months ago.

Plus the cash pile is now above £23m - approaching 20% of the m/cap! This is well above Shore Capital's £21.2m forecast.

With 9.2p EPS forecast this year, if you strip out the cash SUR are on a current year P/E of only just over 7.

Which is crazy considering the forward visibility and SUR's green tech credentials.

Today's H1 results are fine in themselves, but now we know:

- the order book already provides full revenue cover for this year
- the coming year to Jan'24 has been upgraded by 14%, materially ahead of expectations
- the newly increased revenue target to Jan'24 is already covered a whopping 72% by the order book

And the launch of the water efficiency product into B2C is imminent - before the end of 2022.

The figures for the saving using ETP's flow control are amazing - each house could save £360 per annum following installation.

The initial contract win in India promises much, with ETP in talk with other states.

And ETP are soundly financed so perhaps there'll also be further acquisitions.

With 25.9p EPS forecast to Jan'23 ETP are on a single-digit P/E. Far too low, especially considering today's upgrades to next year.

The September update shows CPO production down again, but H1 showed that this is outweighed by higher prices, and once again CPO and in particular PKO prices are well ahead of last year - last year's PKO sales were Nil against this year's 53 tonnes, though PKC sales were Nil this September (swings and roundabouts!).

Extraction rates are excellent, and CPO production is at least improving if still lower.

Cashews seem to be progressing well now, with 10,000tn pa on the cards for next year given DKL are about to reach 75% of that level.

Happy to hold here given the transformation about to happen via cashews and the likelihood of improved CPO production in the next high season at likely higher sale prices.

WH ireland today reiterate their 9p target price and forecasts of €0.4m PBT this year rising to €4.2m PBT next year.

The latter equates to 0.5p EPS.

They note re cashews that "DKL have been carrying out a process of commissioning and testing, which appears to be progressing at pace. With production now approaching rates equivalent to c. 7,500 tonnes p.a., the cashew operation should provide a positive financial contribution in Q4 2022 and, crucially, a significant uplift in revenue and profits in FY2023".

In summary:

"Our FY23 forecast for the cashew business is premised on DKL’s target to produce 10,000 tonnes p.a. (against a nameplate capacity of 15,000 tpa, running three shifts per day), which we now believe is well supported. Once in full operation, we forecast the cashew project to contribute over €12m of revenue in FY23, with strong positive cash flows and potential for over €24m p.a. in the longer term at 25%-plus gross margins.

? Local pricing robust
Against a weaker international market, an average CPO price of €1,030/MT (local) over the month is highly positive and demonstrates the continued disconnect between
local and international pricing. Strong pricing is expected to largely offset lower FFB yields in the year and prices remain materially above our FY23 assumption of €900. The company’s strategy of selling PKO into the international market continues to pay dividends, offering a step change in margin contribution over prior periods – pricing up over 40% on August 2021.

? Palm oil volumes normalising
While the FY22 palm oil harvest has been the lowest in the company’s history, we expect that volumes will normalise in the region by next high season in FY2023. Although not reflected in our forecasts, a poor harvest may be expected to be followed by a strong production year, while recent planting in-country will support a further rise in FFB volumes longer term.

? Forecasts / Valuation
Trading on a forward EV/EBITDA of 5.5x, falling to 3.9x in FY24, and following a material de-risking to our forecasts for the cashew project over the last few months, we see significant upsides in value. We retain forecasts set on June 13th (see our initiation note : DKL Note) as well as our DCF and comparator-based fair

Mark Watson-Williams updated on CNIC on Master Investor on Friday night as follows:

"CentralNic Group (LON:CNIC) – ‘insiders’ adding to holdings

I am always glad to see ‘insiders’ buying more shares in their companies.

I note that Matthew Royde, a non-executive director of this global internet registration group, has added to his holdings and those of Kestrel Opportunities (in which he is a partner and shareholder) taking their combined holdings up to 63.17m shares, representing 21.88% of the group’s equity.

They are the biggest holders in the group’s equity. Together they have made big purchases of stock three times over the last two weeks.

In the next fortnight we should be getting the Q3 Trading Update from the group, which analysts have predicted will see revenues rise over 50% for the full year while profits could increase 84% plus. The results will be published in November.

That all means that Royde and Kestrel have a very tight window for their dealings.

The group has a 98% annual recurring revenue rate, as well as a compound annual growth rate of 72% over the last five years.

It has a total global spread and its ‘money machine’ is accounted for in dollars, thereby giving it even more attractions for the market to eventually latch on to in its assessments of CentralNic Group’s value.

No wonder Royde and Kestrel are ‘goers-on’ for the shares.

I do not need to repeat my enthusiasm for this group’s shares – which I consider are significantly undervalued at the current 120p.

I expect them to rise through their previous peak of 154p a share within months.

Remember Zeus Capital currently values the shares at over 210p each – that leaves a lot of price upside for fresh buying."

Another £52,500 of shares bought back - encouraging to see the usually prudent Landers buying at 1,050p:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/89252864

Hardman have produced a new research note today taking the new funding into account.

The Growth scenario model is interesting, particularly the last paragraph:

Https://hardmanandco.com/research/corporate-research/the-large-growth-is-now-self-financing/

"Growth scenario model

Encouraged by this long-term, internally funded, sustainable high growth, we model
specific numbers, to give an indication of how the share price discounts the future.

? Our central scenario sees EPS above the current share price (a P/E below 1.0x)
five years after Factory One is full. We model the first factory to be full in 2025.
? If we discount back the EPS in column 5 in the table below, at 15% p.a., then
the P/E at which SCE stands, at its 41p share price, is 3.3x. The P/E at which
SCE stands for that future year, at its 41p share price, without discounting back,
is 0.88x. And growth year-in/year-out is modelled at 38%.

The model commences “year zero” with Factory One full. Our formal profit estimates
run to 2024. We would anticipate “year zero” to follow on rapidly. Our central model assumption is 2025, or 2026, seeing full £75m sales achieved.

Core conservative scenario

To be conservative, our model inflates the true anticipated cost of each factory at
36% – so that the cost is modelled at £1 for each £1 sales, whereas it should be
73p. Costs include capital equipment and working capital. The model uses gross
margins slightly below where we anticipate them standing.

Note the EPS progression, highlighted below, all generated from internal cash resources. The EPS that we model being achieved eight years (year five from the full Factory One) from now (46.3p) is above the current share price."

Kestrel are still buying - they're now up to 21.89% of CNIC. Hopefully they'll continue buying all the way up to 29.99% :o))

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/centralnic-CNIC/share-news/CentralNic-Group-PLC-Directors-Dealings/89243288

Good to see an almost £20,000 buy just now at 168p, 1p above the 167p published offer price. Hopefully a good sign.

Numis have issued an update note - they say Buy with a 900p target.

They've raised their forecast for the year just ended by 4%, and now see 56.6p historic EPS. So not far off a single-digit historic P/E.

There's also a 16.8p dividend.

They've left their forecasts for this year unchanged at present - I assume these will be adjusted after the full prelims.

Finally, they see a £2.3m year end cash pile rising to £20.4m next year, though this is slightly ambiguous as they also say:

"Note that we leave Sep-23E net cash unchanged at c.£35m due to assumed phasing of capex. We think the Group's strong balance sheet offers scope for further accretive and capability-enhancing M&A, consistent with the strategy."

This week's impressive presentation by SCE can now be seen here:

Https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8sjJvdG6SWw

You might be interested in MWM from Master Investor's take on KAPE post-placing which I've just come across:

"Kape Technologies (LON:KAPE) – heading to 400p?

Following the massive ExpressVPN acquisition late last year, this digital security and privacy software business enjoyed a strong first half to end June this year, with sales up 216.6% at $302.4m ($95.5m), of which $268.0m ($59.1m) were recurring revenues.

EBITDA was 209.7% better at $88.9m ($28.7m), with EBITDA earnings of 34.1c (9.0c) per share. Cash flow was 517% improved at $90.1m ($14.6m).

Kape expects to deliver on its growth targets, to focus on organic growth engines, as well as continue to execute on its successful in-organic strategy assessing selected M&A targets to accelerate that growth.

The group is now expected to generate revenues of between $610-624m and EBITDA of between $166-172m for the year to end December 2022.

There has been strong demand for the enlarged group’s privacy and security products, coming from new customer growth and from increased upselling within the group’s client lists.

Analyst Caspar Erskine at Singer Capital Markets rates the shares as a Buy, with a price objective of 450p.

He is looking for the next year to end December 2023 to show revenues of $688.3m and EBITDA of $192.6m, kicking adjusted pre-tax profits up from an estimated $126.5m for this year to $165.3m next year, hoisting earnings estimates from 31.8c to 41.3c per share.

On the back of these results the group’s shares lifted to 297p in reaction, a 37p increase on the day.

Then yesterday morning the company announced that it was handling an institutional and private investor Placing to raise between $110m to $200m, by way of the issue of new shares at 265p each, with the funds being used to enhance its capabilities to ‘accelerate its growth through acquisitions.’

Billionaire founder Teddy Sagi’s IOM-based Unikmind Ltd, with 53.7% of the equity, is taking up $110m worth at the price – I just love this guy and the way he handles his business – certainly never to be underestimated.

The shares fell 21.p to 272.5p on the back of the Placing news – at which price I reckon that they are an absolute knockout not to be missed."

Shore Capital have issued an update note today after the contract win, with a 90p fair value target price.

They forecast 4.1c EPS this year, i.e 3.6p EPS.

The 3c dividend equates to 2.64p, which at 49p is a pretty meaty 5.4% yield.

Shore also forecast a $10.9m year end cash pile, i.e £9.6m or 10.9p per share.

Which means MWE are trading on an ex-cash P/E of only 10.7 for the year about to end.

Shore conclude:

"Conservative group forecasts: MTI has a very strong financial platform and seeks to grow sales both organically and through acquisitions, with any new business likely to be incremental to margins/profits, in due course. Ahead of Q3 results expected next month we would highlight that all three divisions have growth drivers in place to improve both revenues and profits. As flagged by the CEO, Moni Borovitz, the contract win for the Antenna division announced today has the
potential to develop into significant recurring revenue. Trading in defence-related activities is likely to be both robust and growing in the coming years, in our view.

Outlook and valuation: As highlighted above, MTI will continue to seek to deliver revenue growth, both organically and through acquisitions in each of its divisions.

In our view, Mottech is particularly well placed in the medium term to potentially see stronger demand than we forecast for its water management and control software. The Antenna division is expected to benefit from the rollout of 5G across the world and as demonstrated by today's news increased defence spending. Indeed,assuming Israel remains at the forefront of global technology development, we expect Summit/PSK to see continued good demand for its products and services as evidenced by the record contract win for the Israeli Ministry of Defence announced on 18 July 2022.

We initiated coverage with a 90p fair value on the basis of a DCF analysis, which is corroborated by MTI achieving an FY22F EV/EBITDA multiple of 13.7x (the average of our peer group)."

Shore Capital have today issued a new 11 page note on SUR, calling the valuation "compelling" on a P/E for the current year of just 8.8.

Of course even that P/E reduces markedly if you strip out the forecast £21.2m cash pile - over 15% of the m/cap.

It's interesting that they're confident enough to issue this just prior to the year end trading statement.

They've raised their forecast for this year to 30/9/23 to 9.2p EPS due to the cut in corporation tax to 19%.

There was also apparently a very nice paragraph in Kwasi's mini-Budget which I was unaware of and Shore Capital point out has been largely ignored/not seen in the furore about everything else, which should benefit SUR nicely:

"£1.5bn boost to energy efficiency drive

Although somewhat overshadowed by the furore following Chancellor Kwasi Karteng's Groeth Plan, or mini-budget of 23 September, the Government announced funding of up to £1.5bn to improve the energy efficiency of around 130,000 social housing and low-income properties in England. The Help to Heat funding is being made available through the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund and Home Upgrade Grant schemes and is expected to save households £400 - £700 pa from their energy bills.

It will fund the installation of measures such as external wall and loft insulation, energy efficient doors and windows, heat pumps and solar panels, with multiple measures often being installed in a single home to improve the energy performance. Local authorities and social housing providers will be able to submit bids for funding and will deliver upgrades from early next year until March 2025. This builds on the more than 30,000 homes already being upgraded under the Social Housing Decarbonisation Fund and Home Upgrade Grant schemes."

Nice £500k+ contract win for the antenna division in the defence sector - but the true importance lies in the comment that "there is the potential for this to evolve into a significant long-term order":

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/mti-wireless-edge-MWE/share-news/MTI-Wireless-Edge-Limited-Contract-Win/89232591

Shore Capital's update note sees today's contract as "encouraging on a number of fronts":

- it "could open further opportunites across its (the MOD's) vast estate"
- it's an example of how the two merged entities operate more effectively together"
- it takes SUR "further up the value chain", as "both a consultant and principal contractor" for decarbonisation solutions

Excellent new article on K3c by hastings (the Private Punter), including a chat with the CEO and CFO:

Https://martinflitton1.wixsite.com/privatepunter/post/k3capital-on-track-5-10-22

Https://www.scsw.co.uk/article.php?id=9496

"Shearwater
129p Epic code: SWG

The cluster of cyber security specialists listed on AIM that once had high flying share prices are now all dead in the water, with the exception of Shearwater (SWG; 129p), which after three upgrades has just produced a very decent set of results: sales up 13% to £35.9m (all organic), pretax profit up 24% to £3m and eps up 10% at 11p. Net cash is £5.6m.

The company is a product of the shell revitalisation skills of chairman David Williams who has launched several shells over the years: this one was a gold miner until 2017 before he made it a buy and build in the cyber space. Williams’ problem early on was too high a central cost base as he put a team in place and a rag bag of four businesses then followed but the fifth one, Brookcourt, has allowed it to prosper. Brookcourt’s founder, Phil Higgins, now heads up the group.

In FY22, the Software side accounted for 9% of group sales. The mainstay is Secure Envoy, a “Privileged Access Management” product, which was bought for £20m. As Higgins explains, a PAM helps secure, control, manage and monitor access. Within a company, for instance, most individuals only need to have access to their own online information whereas the “privileged account” holders – i.e. those working in an organisation’s IT infrastructure - need access to other areas also. A PAM solution takes passwords of privileged accounts and puts them inside a secure vault to reduce the risk of those passwords being stolen. Once they log on to the vault (say, using facial recognition) they are authenticated.

Higgins’ plan is to offer customers “the whole enchilada” and last year was all about re-engineering the suite, which will enable its existing identity access management and data loss products to sit on a single platform and be sold with other software, which may be bought. This development activity saw software sales fall by 23% to £3.3m.

Meanwhile, Shearwater’s Services arm, with sales of £32.6m, is lower margin and not massively scalable. It relies on 20 consultants (gross margin 10-15%) who provide high level consulting for architecture design of a system and engage in penetration testing (£5.6m sales). Architecture design uses bought-in third party software (this bit grew sales 70% to £10.6m) with Managed services, where consultants manage the various systems, flat at £16.4m.

One keynote is that Brookcourt has a high customer concentration - when it was acquired, one financial services business and one telco were c.88% of the then £21m sales - and although they have diluted, you can see the effect continuing with the telco recently garlanding Brookcourt with a contract worth £21m over five years. Broker Cenkos forecasts eps rising to 13.6p this year and 14.3p next. The broker sets a 200p target, which on FY24 forecasts is 8x adjusted EV/EBITDA versus the 10x at which Brookcourt was acquired. One to watch."

A further 5,000 shares just bought back at 1010p.

That's 95,000 shares bought back in the last week, i.e approaching £1m's worth and around 3.7% of the total in issue at the interims.

That's a lot more than I thought they'd be able to repurchase, and a good use of part of the £20.4m cash pile:

Https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/volvere-VLE/share-news/Volvere-PLC-Transaction-in-Own-Shares/89217919

More good coverage of Shore Capital's Buy recommendation here

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/994401/accesso-underpinned-by-cash-inflows-says-broker-994401.html

"Accesso underpinned by cash inflows, says broker

Accesso Technology Group PLC (AIM:ACSO, OTC:LOQPF)’s recent interim results highlighted strong double-digit growth along with improved profitability, underlining the share price potential going forward, said Shore Capital.

The broker noted that the virtual queuing and ticketing group had not seen any negative movement in its marketplace, with revenue forecasts raised for the year though costs will also be higher.

"We upgrade our revenue by 2% to US$135m, however improvement in cash EBITDA is offset by acquisition-related costs and therefore remains at US$19mln, 14% margin.

“Going forward we believe ACSO could continue to build on existing exposure, in particular targeting ski resorts and cross-selling the product set technology is encouraging in our view, and whilst mindful of the uncertainty macro factors, we continue to expect solid cash generation over our forecast period."

Buy with a £9 fair value target, says the broker."