Member Info for RIDER75

Spoud when you decide on what is undervalued and what is not, you should have a look on the balance sheet, and p/l report.

I dont want to decide on that, just a remark....

Out of curiosity, have you look at those numbers ever? :-)

With all my doubts, we should be priced presently at about 5-10 % of the total claims, based on other cases (minus obligations, and liabilities, plus other assets, minus potential loss making in the coming period).

It occured to me that if the state owned oil company is the defendent (or codefendant) its quite easier to execute seizure of their assets compared to the case when only the state stands in that position. Such firms provably have bank accounts abroad, and makes financial transactions regularly, and many limitations dont apply to them , which apply to govenrment and state assets seizure abroad (commercial vs diplomatic aim, etc).

(Its not coincidence, that on case of Crystallex (Conoco, GRZ, RML, etc) case, the decission on alter ego status between state of VZ and state oil company was crucial, and BUR is also eager to involve YPF into the YPF case against Arg again.)

Br

LWHL, if you realized your profit on BUR, you.jave a nice chance.. at around 10 gbp rhats a great start again. 2025 might really be BUR -s year, I belive.

My plan that the bulk of my profit from these high risk, high potential speculative arbitration investments (RML, Greenx, Montero, PAT, Equatorial, maybe Greenland Min), and finally and hopefully even from Zenith will go into BURford Capital somewhere in the next year.

:-)

Br

No way that the sum will arrive in a few weeks... :-)

Stick to the RNS is greatm A thread was here, with a subject: they won 500m...

I appraise all.posts that helps a balanced view. After my intuitiv buy.

Sorry for the awful lot of mistyping.

Unfortunately , thats my trademark.

Sorry for that.

Winning an arbitration doeant mean you get the sum the next day to your accounts.

Also , getting to point where -in case of not immediate payment - you can seize the assets of the other party. That may be a quite long procedure. At may take longer to actually take the 9m usd. Of course it has a market, and a market value. Which is as of today far from the actual 9m...

I dont know the exact profit / loss this year, but according to the annual report, last year they made 40m CAD minus.

I wonder how many of you bought in without any basic knowledge or experience of these sort of cases, considering chances of net winning nwxt time, probility of not getting peid after winning, or not immediately. How many of you know what liabilities, obligations has the company. Etc.

Funny I bought just afzer the announcement on the ruling, with a great luck, without do the minimal basic due duligence, and did it well, but I try to figure out the probabilities.

Not only considering and dreaming the best case scenario.

Honestly how many of you had a look at the firms financial numbera?

Dont you think that dragging the case and avoiding any early settlement could cause some stress on the company, due to its loss making status?

LWHL, first I came across such thery was with Burford Capital, the litigation financier, and their cc 38 % share of the record 16 bn usd award. They have investors from Saud Arabaia, stockholders in the company, and as far as we know, state funds in their funds. One theory was that any claim to be bougjt by the saudis may worth them as a leverage toward Argentinas energy-, gas-, lithium-, and food industries. That was just a theory.

I read the other from Marcin Michalek on X. He followes several arbitration cases. After Trumps weird sentences on Panama and Greenland (economic and strategic geopolitical importance etc.) He highlighted that there are huge potential claims against them (in case of Greenland Greenlamd Minerals and Energy, now Energy Transition Minerals , the claim is 11 bn USD)) arbitration process on its way, and once a ruling decides against them (Greenlaand akd Denmark) it may be tempting for a foreign power, to grab and buy tha claim, and use it for its geopplitical goals. ....

SV maybe they repect their laws and treaties just as much as you respect some in this board with your insulting style (not at all), but their economic interests in medium term would be hurt by doing that. If they dont wamt their economy to be isolated, and develop their country, they need to comply. Besides, several sort of enforcement methods may burdene their everyday international business activities.

All these things can drags on for longer, as we saw in other places, interests payment levied on such obligations may accumulate rather painfully also.

Hopefully they will seek some sort of settlement

That said I am convinced many here expect far too modest discount.

An early settlement and actual payment of 20-30 % would be excellent finally.

For.many reasons I have become rel active on a few boards. My experience again is that not any board can maintain its genuine original kind professional tone, as wider audience come after stock related news .Maybe BUR board is an exception. Here some idiot have already come, but Zenith is getting realy low levels from all aspects.

As I plan with PAT for longer term, and eager to grt to valuable thought, if some of you chamhes the platform, please let me know to follow you.

Br

Ouch. You just dont know enough about this sort of stories, I suppose.

Its almost the sake to buy 10-20-30 % lower or higher. This stocks price is literally almost zero presently. Shouldnt deal with it as a normal stocl or company where 20-30 % might equal to several years dividend.

Here 3.or 6 or 5 .5 or 4 . The same.

There isnt apeaaling here Maybe annulment procedure, which haf been quite rare, but recently has been used as a quasi appeal. It is needed to prove that the arbittration proxess was flawed, arbitrators were not independent and impartial, etc really hard to prove, and low success rate. (The mentioned GBU is one case I think this.was the case. At leadt I am convinced by the arguments and fscts of the request.)

In some jurisdictions the idea of not being impartial indepemdent or incorrect.is almost an insult.... so really very low success rate.

Tactically may be wrong also, due to interests rate on the award.

Right, but all investors should consider the chances of a win, or both great sum, and then the chances and timeframe of really getting paid, etc.

An early settlrment is the best for us, that could save us from the hardship of the last phase. (Huge rise.on SP, but thr potential remaining is also additionally huge, realizr oe not, partly or wholly, etc. Had the similar experiance with RML -Russoro mining. Not that easy. To wait till the grand finale. (Other experoence altough with a small was GBU. The total ultimate surprise...)

I know literally nothing of Tunesians compliamce with arbitrations rulings, what their track record.

Capability of payment is one thing ( guess they have enough financial resources), and intention is other. BUR -YPF case is what I follow, Arg had problems with both, altough their history is not bad, Venezuela against Crystallex, RML, GRZ etc is an example maybe both also.

I cannot overestimate the significance of an early settlement that is also fulfilled (read on Sundance and Equatorial resources, Sundance reached an agreement on settlement but couldnt got paid, thus went on with the arbitration.).

I see.

Can we somehow validate this 130m settlement proposal (other than lady of aim post? )

Br

I meant the alread holders dont have any decision making point (on sale) till febr, or any early settlement .

Settlement proposals fall in the ramge of 25-30-max 50 % rather then 80 %....

Even after court decisions, as with annulment procedures and other ways, the final payment obligations may postponed meaningfully. So before court decisions, dont expect 50-80 % settlement

I would be glad wirh 20-30 % on the coming momths.

You are tottaly right Gal.

I had huge gains withdeawn from other stocks, and must have some self discipline, to maintain some self imposed limits, and diversification. On spite of the great enthusiasm for PAT, as the most promising.

In Hungary we had gov bonds with 18-19 % yield while inflation was 3-4... next year will be the decision time, some for stocks additionally, some for flats or appartments, etc...

And the bulk of my profits would go to.BURford, as their real potential would be seen somewhere at the h2 -q4 next year

Till then, I really enjoy these sort of stories.

Usual retracement to cc half of the last or last few hike, then some sideways, maybe slow moving downward, (then I will buy some more again), then comes the next sharp movement upwards.

Even those will get familiar with the stock, who see todays or this month moves only on top lists.

A dont think anyone should make any decision till february, the earliest.

One more thought.

There may be moral considerations, and thus many difference may be between cases. When for environmental reasons a country changes its laws, not letting any harmful investment to materialize, is acceptable for me. Bot thats not a KO criteria for me to buy shares in commection with a case stem from such changes.

True expropriations are the best, due to both moral, and chances of a auccesful claim.

Greenland, GBU belongs to the first group. IDA, MON, Grrenx and PAT (emd GRZ and Russoro) belong to the second.

My only restricted area are weapon manufacturers. I would or will never invest into any of them. Thats sure

I am happy with my " portfolio" , or selection of stocks of litigation cases. PAT position is cc the same ammount as the others all together....

As Marcin shared his views on Trumps weird remarks regarding Greenland and Panama, and it occured to me that as if Greenland Mineeals and Energy (now Energy Transition Minerals) has BurforsdCapital as litigation financiier, I plan to have a small shot there also. 27 m cap, 11 bn (!) Claim... not sure on the chances, but their case went on for years, and maybe geopolitocs will have some effect on any potential of an early settlement, or they may sell their claim, even on a few % would be highly beneficial...)

Sorry for sharing thoughts on other than PAT, but I believe this can work like this. I wouldnt get to many cases without someone, somewhere mentioning on any board.

Br