Member Info for RichTheNewbie

Looks like the clown is getting really desperate trying to find any negative now!

I think staying at 1800 give or take 100 dollars will be an achievement in the face of tightening etc. No sign of a taper tantrum thus far as investors think things feel very bubble'ey and it's hard to think of many safe havens.

Does look like a deliberate shake if you look at the trade feed. Multiple large sells all getting later cancelled and large buys also dropping in. Unless you believe that every single time they're doing a large trade they're "accidentally" entering it twice. If they were that incompetent they'd be fired.

Gold also doing well despite the dollar's recent rise...FUD growing.

My girlfriend was also getting a bit tubby, so she called Weight Watchers, and asked if they could said someone round.
They said "No problem. We've got loads of them."

(no apologies for digging out the old jokes whilst the market is having a paddy)

Hurtle why do you keep posting this anti-vaccination nonsense. There has been no sign of ADE in the vaccines and because of the way most of them work it was extremely unlikely anyway. Simple fact is for almost anyone you're better off being vaccinated (barring rare exceptions, usually involving being very old/unwell, or children - where it might offer them protection from serious illness, but they just haven't confirmed that in trials yet).

The lighter the better ;)

FYI and FWIW: Tamesis broker note out yesterday - target price 30p.

Having said that - just buying an index tracker will generally have seen people well over a very long period......even in a short period the FTSE100 has risen 35-40% from the pandemic lows.

However, predicting the future is never easy, and it took well over a decade for the dotcom highs to be surpassed on the FTSE or S&P. Timing is everything. If you bought the S&P now, you might find you're waiting another 15 years to make any money, or it could carry on rallying another crazy percentage more. Oh for a crystal ball ;)

By an awful lot of metrics the US is in a bubble but then you might argue it's not and just reflecting the new tech giants on that index (most of them probably justifying their value - Tesla perhaps not :p).

I own a fair chunk of stock, as the odds favour the status quo continuing. However a miner like this, that should make plenty of money in future years, even with gold anywhere vaguely near this level, is a nice potential bonus, should FUD return, and gold head north as a result.

Problem is viable, a fund returning 6 months at 24% is representative little more than a very frothy stock market that many would argue is in a bubble, let alone 64% in a year! This is actually the problem for gold - the money printing era means they can make such big gains on stocks the threat of inflation is outweighed by these gains. Institutions might claim they're spreading risk but most of them aren't really to a degree that would be meaningful if the dung hit the fan.

I think if you invest in a miner you should ultimately do so on the basis that they will make good money at the current gold prices over time and not rely on gold rising. I think this is where Shanta have an advantage over many (ignoring short term price reaction due to the unforeseen geology) and will remain, or return to being, a miner with good margins, and great exploration/expansion prospects (the key being those margins meaning they'll be fine even if gold pulled back rather than rose further in the future).

Good news isn't something for a Friday ;)

Bit of wishful thinking from Mr Scott there...the solution being make everything here!

Only problem is that would have happened already if the cost wasn't disproportionately higher to do it here. So it hasn't. It's pretty much as simple as that. Sadly, for most things, it's not a choice between make it here or over there for the same/similar cost.

The world is addicted to China's cheap goods and would get a rude awakening if they stopped using them. Forget your 5% inflation - it'd be orders of magnitude higher. Some might argue this is simply the modern "acceptable" face of slavery.

It's not a comfortable topic for anyone nor does it have an easy solution (without significant economic turmoil).

Having just got a bit further in the interview - there was actually no need for me reading into his demeanour - he just says that he thinks that :)

I've got to give Eric his due.
Not only did he try to answer my question about what exactly went on with regards the downgrade during the webinar but I suggested in the feedback that he should provide more clarity on this in interviews to clear up any doubt regarding it.
I don't know if it's in direct response to that feedback or not but he's clearly not shying away from the issue and is trying to help clear things up.
The VAT issue does sound pretty positive and as though he's pretty optimistic of more to come.
I think he understands the drop in the basic sense of a drop in production guidance would hit any company...however, from his demeanour in the interviews today/yesterday, I think he's simultaneously quite shocked at the scale of the drop and thinks the market is being crazy in terms of missing the bigger picture/value!

It's sounding a lot more like certain people have panic sold at the lows and and are trying to justify it with supposed II sellers despite no evidence of it ;)

How are you calculating the $19m? (Are you just pro-rata'ing, to use a horrible phrase, the cost up by dividing down to a lower number of ounces)

Obviously I question whether this is correct on the basis of not all costs being fixed and therefore not necessarily work out like that?

Also because in the 5 year plan RNS from yesterday the AISC for H2 2021 are as $1,272.
That's based on the production of 33,361oz for H2 2021.
The plan shows Q2 was 14,201 and Q1 14,641.
So adding these together gives a total of 62,203 (to check that it reflects the lower production level - and it does).

On a different note...I notice the update to major shareholders showed changes to four entries a week ago.
All four changes were rises in holdings, by Cannacord, Blackrock, Fidelity, and Ketan Patel.
All of them having raised their stakes by 4 to 7 million shares. With the exception of Ketan who raised his stake by about 1.5 million.
I suspect it's not II's that have been selling and in fact they're buying up the PI holdings right now.

I think we're talking in crossed purposes - what is $19m? Are you talking about revenue?
What's the $81m you're talking about?

Tony - indeed. I compare the risk reward at these prices and risk/reward at the pre-news price. It's miles better now.

It's remarkably simple to boil down: 16k oz (in total, not per period) aren't there so won't be mined (would have been this year).
So things go back to normal after this year. The company would have $5-6m less cash in its pocket. That would be the end of it with the same bright future on all assets.
However they've actually got some VAT back so instead of being $5-6m light on cash. It's probably more like $1-2m light.
So ending up a couple of million in cash lower at the end of 2021.
Imo the scale of the drop is ludicrous (although the markets are frequently entirely illogical) in comparison to the actual change in state of the company - which is actually minimal.

BeBold - don't interpret one person as speaking for everyone ;)

Yesterdays RNS didn't change enough to warrant such a drastic change of opinion. In reality not a great deal has changed other than the fact money from 15-20koz being mined later rather than the next two quarters. So ballpark $5-$6m of profit. They also got $4m of VAT back. So that puts the profit $1-2m lower than expected levels unless you were certain of the VAT coming back (which nobody could be). Also assumes no further VAT comes back this year if so the position could be better than anticipated overall! Very little else has changed.

I think HUM's fall was more justified than SHG's and weren't taking costs seriously enough (trust is hard to win back but if they deliver the numbers they should do a lot of the talking in the end). SHG's I think was more in the "sh*t happens" category, as someone said earlier, and the drop OTT.
Right - back to work!