Member Info for RichKen

So off we go!!

Thats it

The movements we are seeing over that last few days are I am afraid inevitable based on the strong rises through to our peak last week on Wednesday.

New investors who have come in since are feeling a lot of pain at the moment. But given that the company is confident in its presentations that the results will be positive. Right now all everyone can do is wait for the results to play out, this means applying the Affimers to the LFD, checking and re-checking results and then following the process and completing validations and approvals. This takes 6 to 8 weeks from receipt of the Affimers.
The results will come most likely from Adeptrix first as this is much simpler process.

The company will be focusing on the negotiations with the large partners on the pre-CISION products for virus blocking and chemotherapy development therapeutics. This will take time too. But when the news comes, the share price will be like a jack in the box and will likely spike way above any high so far seen. If it comes with confirmed orders then we will really see a substantial jump.
For new investors this may seem crazy, but actually the best would be to just keep buying into the current market. I can't see this dropping too much further. In the 120's may be possible but calling the bottom is not an easy call for anyone. But, I can tell you the smart head is not panicking but buying. Waiting for the bottom is possible but the market markers will have a number and it will bounce back and you won't be able to buy till they get to the number they want. That is their job.
Best is to buy, hold and see what happens on the news. Today's market only works for professional traders. If you are not one and you believe in the company and what they are presented with clarity then you should hold and wait.
Everyone has to make there own decisions. I am buying.
A few days ago everyone was looking at £3 to £5 per share. Nothing has changed.
Is there are massive global market for a fast Antigen test? You bet there is and it is massive.
Have a good day and keep your heads.
Cheers, RK

I don't think that would be the case as the importance of the testing requirement will be a priority. They will not be made to hold back progress. That would be defined in the previous agreements.
The transaction on the new partnership would have to be seen as a new and separate transaction to which the new partner would have to buy at the market price. That could be why the price as been driven down? I don't think so though.

The timing on the two other partnerships with Cytiva and Adeptrix is going to be determined by success and approvals. As soon as that is achieved it is vital that those projects are activated immediately for the good of the planet.

Any new partnership will join with the knowledge all existing partnerships in place and the opportunities for the business to succeed!

That is good for all of us!

Cheers, RK

From my thread earlier, I would like to share some thoughts on the potentially huge partnership for announced on the 15th May and especially this point:
"Large pharmaceutical companies, such as AstraZeneca and GSK, are now starting programmes to develop neutralising antibodies in an attempt to block the SARS-COV-2 spike protein’s interaction with ACE2. Avacta has now demonstrated that several Affimer reagents also perform this blocking function and the Company is now seeking a partner that has the resources available to develop a neutralising Affimer therapy as quickly as possible."

So, the thoughts on this partnership may well go beyond the pre-CISION Affimer technology for blocking the SARS-COV2 virus. The new partner may well want to work on the cancer therapeutic treatments too and build this into a long-term relationship. This will mean a potential cash injection to Avacta and additional capacity and support provided by the global pharmaceutical giant. The terms and legalities of this transaction will be complex and deep-reaching. This brings me to the real nitty-gritty. Will the “pharma giant” decide to take the partnership to a new level by taking a stake and buying a percentage of the shares in the business in return for a deep long-term relationship. The opportunity for both companies to be able to benefit from such an agreement would be far-reaching and may well be good for investors too.

In these times and with the opportunity for pre-CISION this is a strong possibility in my opinion. These are only thoughts but in business and company development this is a possible outcome.

I am sure many may also have thoughts on who this may unfold.

Cheers,
RK

Just added another 6400 shares to my portfolio!

Thanks MM's

Cheers RK

That is good to know PL75! Glad to bring cheer to the ear!

I agree this pandemic is far from over. The reason governments are coming out of lockdown is not for our safety, it because the global economy will go into meltdown if people don't get back to work! We need food, power, water, chemicals, minerals and everything else. If you remove spokes out of the wheel it will fail and you will crash. So we have to go back to work even if there is as governments call it collateral damage. That is people dying and the virus spreading. The world cannot stop for long otherwise we have a real problem. This is why the current advice is no conclusive. The real advice is to stay at home if you can (afford too). Otherwise, go to work and be careful. Except people are complacent and this leads to the virus spreading. Everyone should wear masks but they don't, everyone should wear gloves but they don't. Everyone should keep a distance but they don't. The results will be a second wave and testing and tracing capability will be really ready for mass testing and production by the end of July. The start of the second global lockdown. The US will be in a major mess by then, let alone other parts of the world.
Our test will be in huge demand and it may be the only admission to the world if you test negative on that day.
The pressure on a treatment development like our Affimer therapeutic blocker to get into production will likely be huge.

So to sum up, people may be fickle and think we are over this. Far from it! Avacta are going to have everything in place needed to be ready. They know it, Cytiva know it and so do AZ and GSK and any other partner currently in discussions with Avacta.

Anyone thinking they have missed the opportunity to grow their investment here look likely to be incorrect. We don't have crystal balls or the ability to prophesy what is going to happen but there is no cure now and seeing how quickly it spread before lockdown. It will very likely happen again as more people are exposed.

Sorry for being a doom merchant today, but it is how I see it and investors need to stick by there understanding of Avacta's potential and fundamentals with great partnerships.

Cheers, RK

Part 2

As humans, we are impatient with each other, frustrated by restrictions, and easily complacent when we meet with our friends and families and especially with work colleagues as it is too easy to forget that we have a silent killer around us. If we don’t respect what we already know then this will become a whole lot worse. In the US we have a terrible situation which will increase the spread dramatically, so the needs are going to be much higher.
As investors in Avacta we know what is happening and we know we have a great solution, we just await confirmations.
We may see new partnerships, and this will be good too.
I hope these musings help!
Cheers, RK

Part 1
Today’s movements are not entirely out of characteristics with a developing business especially one which is about to be very successful. There are always going to be quiet news times and we knew they were coming. In fact, it has been surprising we have had additional news items which most would not have expected. So Avacta has actually been doing a very good job to the point where they know have to wait like everyone else. The only job in hand for Avacta at this point apart from ensuring they have a good supply of the correct Affimers is to develop and produce one of the key partnerships for there future. This is the one with a major pharmaceutical giant using the Affimer reagents to block the interaction between the virus’ spike protein and ACE2, a receptor on human cells that is key to the virus infection pathway which will indeed stop the virus in its tracts! This is the big partnership and for a Biotech company to get the right partnership with terms which suit both parties will be a tough challenge. If you want to know what Alastair Smith is doing at the moment, that would be my hunch. He will be working with his negotiating team and their lawyers formulating a detailed partnership agreement which will suit both parties and ensure a route to market and certification as quickly as possible. This will be something which takes time, let alone the actual development and certification to use as a virus treatment program which will definitely have a huge global impact. Assuming that we get news of this new partnership soon and it takes 6 to 8 months to market, that means now virus blocker until January to March 2021.
Now in the meantime we have our two tests.
1. BAMS with Adeptrix – this is due first as it is much easier to develop and certify. This was announced on the 1st May and the Affimers shipped on 11th May. If we say 6 weeks then 20th June would be likely the date.
2. LFA with Cytiva – This was announced on the 8th April and the Affimers were shipped on 11th May as above. If this takes 8 weeks to prototype, develop and certify which is fast, then we would see a date of around 6th July.
Investors have to understand that even with a global pandemic these developments take time.
Given we will likely be in a second lockdown by then this is going to be a massive step change and a route to a solution until reliable and safe therapeutics are ready.

People easily forget, we have no cure for Covid19, we have no 100% effective treatments and we have a world population that are complacent. The governments around the world can’t afford to allow their economies to fail. So people are going back to work and forgetting the new rules.
A second wave is certain and Avacta with their tests and the therapeutic virus blocker hold the keys here.
This is still likely to be the investment in 2020. I am going nowhere.
Keep your heads.
Cheers RK

For me this is just an adjustment taking the heat out of the rise. The potential bottom is likely to be around £1.45.
Nothing has changed for me and I have added more through the drop.
More thoughts later, but I have the same belief in our tests and blocking therapeutics being a success as before.
Cheers RK

That's interesting! Look what Avacta has:
https://avacta.com/alastair-smith-video-presentation-sars-cov-2-neutralising-affimer-reagents/
Cheers, RK

Trek, I agree it is essential for all investors to use there ISA allowances first, that, of course, is you can add £20K each into the account, and that can grow as much as it can down to the investments you chose. The great this is when you decide to withdraw any sum it is tax-free! So those with large ISA's (worth a lot of money are in a tax-free situation later in life when they decide to sell some to live or buy something.
If you invest in a SIPP every month, for every £100 the tax man gives you another £25. It is possible to add up to £40K per year into a SIPP with the top up from taxman that is £50k per year. But, when you retire you have to apply income tax at the current rates to withdrawals. There are also two crystallisation dates, where any amount over the current lifetime limit where a tax lump sum is payable to the revenue! Paying large amounts of tax for those with successful investment portfolios will be painful. The two dates are the day you retire or decide to crystalise your SIPP (from the 55th Birthday) and you 75th birthday. But the good thing is you can with draw 25% as a tax-free lump sum. So there are some great investment vehicles to help us, investors. just remember you cant withdraw from a SIPP until your retire (earliest 55th or 57th Birthday depending on your age).
So the coming years are going to be interesting. The implications of this virus on the world population both from a civilisation (our relationships with each other) point of view and an economic point of view are going to be deep a wide without intervention through readily available treatments and testing.
The world's priority will be how to create income and where our food comes from, where our water comes from and how we generate energy from our planet at low cost with low impact. Old forms of investment platforms will change as priorities our change. Savvy investors will be thinking about this over the weeks ahead. I predict a second wave and a second lock down as people are not thinking and the world is under pressure to get life back. Time for people to be smart and think this through.
Investments like Avacta are part of the solution and for many will be a springboard, but we need to keep our eyes open and look at what will be needed. Food, water, packaging, low-cost energy, low-cost transport, new forms of virtual entertainment and medical requirements. These are the key future points.
I see other priorities too but that is not for a public share chat as politics and faith are not part of this.
These are just musings, but it is time to think!
I think another Avacta top-up is needed tomorrow! something is coming soon here and it will have a huge impact.
Have a great evening!
Cheers, RK

RD, I had a pension with Aviva, I transferred it into a SIPP and have managed it ever since. Over 5 years it has grown by 1000%. If I had left it with Aviva I would be around 33% up.
This pensions are such a con and the charges are so high!
Makes you think. If we have a second wave the global market will have a much deeper and longer drop. Being able to be in the right sectors at times like those is going to be critical. People want safe places to hold there money and many fund managers are stuck in the rules of there funds. That is bad news. So folks now is the time to be smart.
Gold is one area, oil is not an area. But Healthcare and Biotechs are the new tech stocks and the right ones will go ballistic.
If we take AXA Framlington Healthcare fund, it has increased 20% in 6 weeks. Balanced amongst the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world.
Avacta has increased over 200%!
Food for thought!
Cheers RK

Liecesterboy, I guess your point is would someone really put in such a large amount in one company. A lot of people clearly would not. But most people invest on a whim or they are risk-averse. If you were about to retire or you needed the money very soon it would be a serious risk. But, with serious research people do invest millions of pounds in single companies and they can make a huge amount of money. Ask Warren Buffett! He has invested millions of dollars many times in companies and held on till they reached the value he saw in the fundamentals. That is why he is a multi-billionaire. Bushveld Minerals went from 1.3p to 48p in less than 2 years. It came back alot since then, but people who pilled in from 1.8p to 5p and decided to sell out in the 40p plus area will have mad huge money. That stock still has huge potential to recover when the steel and energy market gets going again.
I would be amazed if there were not many investors already with holdings in 6 or even 7 figures invested in Avacta. With the upside potential, it could well yield exceptional returns. When you look the others right now it offers a very good potential, the world markets are very shaky right now and many businesses are very cautious with forecasts and if we have a second spike around the world leading to another long lockdown those buisinesses will be had hit. Avacta has the potential to make the best of this oppertunity and with the right partner for the pre-CISION Affimer blocking treatment for Covid19 they would be set to gain a huge global market.
Given people and governments are playing roulette with lives as we are no further forward in terms of a vaccine or treatment from where we were in March if we don't see a huge spike coming again it would be very supprising.
The only reason we are all going back to work and lockdowns are being eased as the number of people in the hospital is less than expected, not because the virus is under control! People forget very easily.
So having a large percentage of a holding like Avacta may not be for everyone, but I am sure right now it doesn't look such a bad place to be. There will be other investments which are also strong too, but here we talk Avacta.
Until there is a vaccine or cure, both highly unlikely then testing and blocking the virus are going to remain a huge business opportunity.
Avacta remains a very large part of my portfolio today and I have added more this lunchtime!
Cheers,
RK

The world is trying hard to come out of lockdown, and it is going to be an experiment to see what happens with the virus. If only they had waited a few more weeks for the mass testing opportunity.
Our test will come and from a point of view of the world situation it can’t come soon enough. People need to be careful not to be complacent at this time.
Our test when it comes will make the world a safer place.
I really hope we get news on the partnership for the virus blocker using Affimers this week. That is our next huge step in my opinion.
Hope you all have a great and safe week.
Cheers RK

This gives the full insight!
https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5e985bc231da814c9fc6a477/5e9d8891f43115b1470001c7
Cheers RK

Thanks Richob! My good lady was really touched.
Much appreciated.
Cheers RK

The Introduction:
Avacta is a Biotech company with two operating segments, the Therapeutics operations based at Avacta’s Cambridge site (pre|CISION™ ) and the Diagnostics operations ( Affimer® ) in Wetherby.

The Expertise!
Avacta has two key areas - Affimer® technology a uniquely developed technology which is used as a diagnostic to find virus’s based on a human protein called Stefin A. The Affimer® platform is Avacta’s proprietary therapeutic platform with its intellectual property covered by several patent families.

Projects:
Affimer® technology projects with LG Chem just on licensing can be worth up to $310 million.
ADC project backed by Astra Zeneca for PBD Warheads - loaded affirmer drugs $500 million.
A joint venture in South Korea with Daewoong a leading Korean pharma company, to develop the next generation of cell and gene therapies, incorporating Affimer proteins to enhance the immune-modulatory effects. Avacta holds 45% of the business but the finance is provided by venture capitalists where the market potential is still too large to actually pinpoint as there are NDA's in place so the market information can't be shared. Huge potential!
The huge project with Affimer® technology with Moderna which again will give drug deliveries for mRNA delivery is still progressing. Huge potential!

Affimer® technology to detect Covid19 using Antigen tests the partners are Cytiva (LFD) and Adeptrix (BOMS) with distribution through 4 Mass Spectrometer suppliers
There are existing 5 other Affirmer evaluations progressing, 17 other projects already delivered for evaluation, and a further 7 development projects initiated!

The Expertise:
Avacta’s pre|CISION™ technology can be utilised in a drug conjugate linker or to generate chemotherapy pro-drugs that are only activated in the tumour.
When added to a chemotoxin, the pre|CISION™ substrate prevents the chemotoxin from entering cells and therefore renders it inert until the substrate is cleaved in the tumour microenvironment. Using this pro-drug approach, the systemic exposure to the chemotoxin is dramatically reduced, and the safety and therapeutic window of these powerful anti-cancer treatments are improved.

The projects:
pre|CISION™ partnerships which are looking to start with opportunities in AST, Breast and Ovarian cancer the EU/ US market potential is around $1.5 billion.

Research Opportunities for the reader:

Broker Note: https://www.docdroid.net/efF886d/avacta-full-note-060520-pdf

Company Presentation: https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5e985bc231da814c9fc6a477/5e9d8891f43115b1470001c7
Latest technology from Avacta: https://avacta.com/alastair-smith-video-presentation-sars-cov-2-neutralising-affimer-reagents/

A good read from a well-known researcher is found here:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/avacta-group-update-ii-part-i.pdf

Still the best investment decision in 2020!
Cheers RK