Member Info for RichKen

That article in the Telegraph from this morning clearly underlines the need for a low-cost simple device which means that the mass population can be tested. Thanks to a good friend I have just seen this too.

The government are clearly considering that investment on regular testing of the population is the only way to keep the country running safely.

If any company has the potential to be able to work with its partners to meet this future demand it is Avacta. It makes you wonder when Alastair Smith said that orders could be in the region of 100's of millions per month that those discussions have already taken place. The current fear of the numbers increasing and a second wave are a real present danger based on what we are hearing and seeing.

Fast forward to August and we will have a much clearer picture, but from what is coming more and more into focus is those thinking that Covid19 is falling away are info a shock. If we are to safe then PPE is the key in the meantime and respecting social distancing.

With this in mind I think the current share price here will again prove to be oversold and looks to way to low to me.

Cheers, Rich (my new sign off)

If you do decide to trade a company to increase your holdings, as I have said before here and in other places, you only trade a small percentage of your holding. Only 'small' amounts. Certainly not more than £5K. You may not be able to trade that amount in terms of a sell or a buy. But, most times unless you are sure of the direction it is most likely not worth it! If the market markers spike a share price you are most likely able to buy on the rise, but not sell. When they dip the share price, you can't sell but you can often buy. That is not the time to trade you will loose and they will win!

But you need to watch and learn by your mistakes. You press buy and you press sell. Your investment portfolio's growth is dependant on your actions and your decisions
Not, anything you read here or watch in a presentation. They are your decisions.

The point of a share chat is people share thoughts and ideas and information. As readers we look, consider, validate or disregard. Then make our own decisions.

I would like to think though we are kind and considerate to each other. Please treat each other as you want to be treated.

I think I have made myself clear. I am very happy to be invested here and I may well be adding more in future!

Have a good evening!

Cheers, RK

I have to say, I am always honest when I post, I share things as I see them. I research thoroughly and share as much information as I can find in posts which try to be informative to new investors and give reminders to those who sometimes lose there way.
Avacta is a company which would have surely been off many investors radar if it was not for the Corona Virus. I would have to say it would not have been on mine. But, I am so glad I have and the technology they have clearly has the potential to completely change diagnosis and therapeutics for years to come with successful breaks. One of those came last week with a placing which was oversubscribed. You can be sure having bought in last week at £1.20 these people are not the ones selling. The only reason anyone would sell at a higher price was if they could see that the pattern in the stock price was going to drop. Very few investors trust those patterns and they can be broken with news articles positive or negative.
From the very begining posting both at Novacyt and here on the Avacta share chat, I have informed people that share prices often go up in waves and on news as we have seen often there is a spike and then a fallback. AIM shares are famous for this reaction, unless it is so significant and influential to a companies future that income from a particular company is so strong you 'must buy it'!
At the top of this page, there is a tab share charts. It is on every stock and you will see ups and downs. It is normal. Look at some of the big companies like Amazon, Tesla, AZ or GSK. They all have rises and fall backs. Even professional fund managers with all their expertise have the same. But, in the end, good companies with the right fundamentals and sentiment rise to the top. Tesla had shocking fundamentals and some would say it still does, but the momentum and Tesla fanatics see no wrong. Unlike the UK where people build something up and then shoot it down (we even have them on this chat board). In the US once they love something it can almost do no wrong. Hence Tesla last week went over $1000 per share. Who knows how far it will go. Many back it as they see it is changing the planet and it is the future. Well Avacta with its Affimer technology is just the same and it could follow the path of many of these super companies. There are many small UK companies have gone on to global success. They all had difficult days. Avacta has not had a difficult day though. Only the share price. That is because the herd investors are not savvy, they follow the crowd. Look on LSE which share price is hot, which company has the most posts, that top poster - where are they invested?

However, if you really research and you really look at what the potential earnings a company can achieve from a new or growing market, especially when it has the expertise and the right management, then you know you are on to a winner!

Avacta to me is one of those companies. It is your research and your money!
Cheers, RK

Mapp, I have not gone and I have no intention of leaving. I am well aware of the potential and the trading patterns that go in in this AIM market.
But, I am also well aware that the fundamentals and potential of this company is huge. Hence, my holding is still growing. I am planning on becoming a much richer RickKen. Selling out here will not help that strategy.
Cheers RK

On a day like today, it is impossible to fully analyse the shares bought and sold.

From the peaks of £2.10 it is very difficult for all investors to see the market fall back so dramatically. The heavier the investment, clearly the greater the on-paper loss.

I can tell you that through a small amount of selling earlier and a buyback late in the day, I have managed to scrape some positive from today.

But, I have to say to all, this story is not half told! I fully expect a strong recovery and good news to come in on multiple points. You all know what those are if you have watched the recent presentations.

My targets remain and I have not lost any sight on where they are. It is hard to say dont panic. But I am not and will be very happy to hold into a string future.

So if you bought in because you believe in the future of the company you are in the same place as me. We are nowhere near the destination.

Cheers, RK

Just for one moment will you all think about the impact on the share price once the first clinical human trials are completed and seen as a success on any of the below! I am sorry but I must say this the share price will be ten times what it is today. The market for targeted cancer treatments with little side effects and impoved life expectancy is worth billions to everyone.

Time to focus a bit here ladies and gentlemen!

It always staggers me that Avacta has so much potential in this particular area.

The first is AVA6000 Pro-doxorubicin, Doxorubicin has been a standard of care treatment for advanced soft tissue sarcoma (ASTS) for 40 years. Treatment is currently limited to six cycles due to cumulative cardio-toxicity. However, the global market for this generic drug is still $1bn. AVA6000 Market Opportunity for three opportunities ASTS, breast and ovarian cancer, with peak sales for a safer and more efficacious form of dox in the US/EU alone is estimated to be $1.5bn pa with a 5-10% royalty to Avacta plus development milestones in the near term. This is an incredible prospect!

But then the opportunities to use the recent funds to develop the additional pipeline of pre|CISION pro-drugs, some of which have already been synthesized, with an addressable market of many $billions per year.
Including these drugs but not limited to:
• preCISION Velcade
• preCISION Paclitaxel
• preCISION Oxaliplatin
• preCISION Gemcitabine
• preCISION Capecitabine
• preCISION PARP inhibitor
• preCISION PD-1 Inhibitor
• preCISION AKT inhibitor
• preCISION Balixafortide

The combination of Avacta’s two proprietary platforms to deliver chemotherapy and immunotherapy in a single drug molecule has two key points:

The "warhead"
Released in the tumour by the preCISION linker chemistry.
• Selected to kill tumour cells and create an inflammatory event that recruits the immune system.
• Potential for a pipeline of TMACs using different immuno-active warheads

Then the Affimer Immunotherapy:
• Supports the immune attack on the tumour by blocking the signal the tumour uses to evade the immune system.
• Potential of a pipeline of immunotherapy and targeting Affimers including bispecifics

If the trials are successful with AVA6000 the developments in these other treatments will surely be accelerated. Within 2 to 3 years we could see the results of these developments being used in Oncology clinics around world saving lives.

The funding from income from the Covid19 testing using our Antigen LFD and BAMS projects using the Affimers will accelerate this further.

More details here: https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Placing-Presentation-June-2020-1.pdf
Surely investors can see the value here!

Cheers, RK

So do I, I have been building a holding here on the dips over the last few weeks. Started at £1.58. Then £1.12. How nice to have a company that you can buy when you want to as it uses SETS. It gives many more options.
I see this company having a huge future.
Cheers RK

Being an Antigen test is always going to be a market differentiator and that is why Alastair Smith said it was the only way he wanted Avacta to go.
With respect to the market, I don’t think this is to late at all. There is huge pressure around the world to open up. So they will try. But there remains no cure, no vaccine. If anyone has tried wearing a mask for several hours it is not at all comfortable. The only way to make travel safe and comfortable is to introduce this test until the virus is totally under control and no risk.
Anyone thinking we are too late, I cannot agree. The global situation is terrible. If it carries on we will have more people dying than previous wars if we see the global picture.
A lot of news to come on every level!
Cheers RK

What is an ITM Electrolyser?
https://youtu.be/eku0GuSKiIc
This will give an insight to the product and its scale.
https://youtu.be/eku0GuSKiIc
I hope this helps newcomers to ITM Power.
Cheers RK

The new plant will be ready in Q4 this year:
https://youtu.be/zWiFJ5NKz0c
That will bring huge production opportunities.
Cheers RK

From this week:
The potential role that hydrogen can play in achieving ambitious emissions targets for industry was formally recognised with the announcement of an exciting new venture in the gas industry, ITM Linde Electrolysis (ILE).

A joint venture company between ITM Power and Linde Engineering, ILE will focus on providing global green gas solutions at industrial scale – 10MW and up – using ITM Power’s modular PEM electrolysis technology and Linde’s world class EPC expertise to deliver turnkey solutions to customers.

ILE pulls together world-leading hydrogen expertise, with Andreas Rupieper, Head of Group R&D and Portfolio Management at Linde, appointed as Managing Director of the company.

Since its incorporation in January, ILE has made significant progress with an operational centre established in Dresden, Germany and several full-time business development appointments made.

ILE leverages access to the capabilities of both parent organisations and offers an extremely strong value proposition which spans the full project life cycle from feasibility to plant realisation.

Uniting Linde’s EPC capabilities, hydrogen processing and application technologies expertise with ITM Power’s proprietary PEM electrolyser technology means ILE can provide fully optimised turnkey packages.

ITM Power provided a trading update this week in which it said that ILE is already engaged in numerous proposals for the deployment of large-scale electrolysis equipment.

ILE has won its first feasibility study for the installation of a 100MW plant at an oil refinery and also a major Front End Engineering Design (FEED) study for an additional 100MW plant.

Close collaboration with Linde Engineering has been transformational for ITM Power. The availability of engineering capacity, market experience, technical expertise and the Linde supply chain has enabled ITM Power to accelerate development in multiple areas.

Of particular relevance is the ability to accelerate compliance work for the deployment of products and systems in a greater number of international territories.

“A key reason behind the collaboration with Linde Engineering was to enable ITM Power to focus solely on its core competence – the manufacture of electrolysis equipment – as opposed to EPC activities,” ITM Power said in its trading update.

“Both the bidding of projects and their execution benefit from a redistribution of efforts which ultimately makes ITM Power more efficient.”

“The synergies between the two companies have made for swift collaboration and have generated enthusiasm within the team.”

Research house First Berlin pointed out in February that ITM's high order backlog and rising tender opportunity pipeline has put the company on course to break even by 2022.

Over the next three years, the research house is forecasting ITM’s revenues to rise to £28.7mln from £3.3mln in 2018, which should pave the way for ITM to break-even at the underlying earnings (EBIT) level in 2022.

First Berlin said it had concluded that ITM Power looks set to be a prime beneficiary of rising demand for green/low carbon hydrogen.

It noted that the Hydrogen Council expects demand to grow around tenfold from 2015 to 2050, which corresponds to compound annual growth of almost 7%.

“Hydrogen is an excellent all-round fuel and suitable for all three energy applications: power, heat, and mobility,” First Berlin pointed out.

“Furthermore, it is needed as feedstock in the chemicals and refining industries,” it added.

This company certainly looks to have a strong future!

Cheers RK

Maltby2002, I think that is the case for many business people. We waste so much time traveling and online meetings and conference calls are proving very effective. Meetings also become more focused. That means generally more effective. It is also much more cost effective.
So good all round.
Cheers, RK

O&W. Thanks for the feedback. I understand fully your points but as in every market it depends on who the tests are sold, who is marketing it and what the final costs are, as well as availability in the geographic location. In these respects we just don’t know how the two tests will stack up. Given the number of MS in the world and the number of suppliers I still think Avacta have a chance of a good market share and that will drive income. That is good for all.
I say this with no disrespect to the effort and suitability for GenDrive to succeed as well.
Cheers RK

The opportunities for accurate testing in the lab using mass spectrometers is surly very big. We only have to look at the success and sales figures achieved by Novacyt across the globe for PCR testing. But imagine if it turns out that the BAMS Affimer test is even more accurate in terms of sensitivity resulting in more accurate results. This will become the key testing mechanism especially if it is cost effective and requires lower investment in countries with more challenging financial resources, let alone the 1st world countries. Accuracy and cost are key selling points to every health service on the planet.

But, then imagine if our humble LFD test turns out to be as accurate thanks to Affimer selection and the work on making the Cytiva LFD work more effectively. That small and simple device could replace everything. It is possible.

Alastair Smith has stated sales of this device could be in the 100,000,000's (Hundreds of millions) per month (his words not mine). Our margins could be reduced to make them available to the masses once production capacity is in place, but the income to the business could be very strong indeed. That is why it is critical to get this right.

Clearly the sooner the better, but if we can have both in the field in August, it will still be hugely helpful. We need to be ready for the autumn and winter. No treatment and no vaccine clearly points to a need.

Let's hope everything fits into place.

Cheers, RK

It always staggers me that Avacta have so much potential on this particular area.

The first is AVA6000 Pro-doxorubicin, Doxorubicin has been a standard of care treatment for advanced soft tissue sarcoma (ASTS) for 40 years. Treatment is currently limited to six cycles due to cumulative cardio-toxicity. However, the global market for this generic drug is still $1bn. AVA6000 Market Opportunity for three opportunities ASTS, breast and ovarian cancer, with peak sales for a safer and more efficacious form of dox in the US/EU alone is estimated to be $1.5bn pa with a 5-10% royalty to Avacta plus development milestones in near term. This is an incredible prospect!

But then the opportunities to use the recent funds to develop the additional pipeline of pre|CISION pro-drugs, some of which have already been synthesized, with an addressable market of many $billions per year.
Including these drugs but not limited to:
• preCISION Velcade
• preCISION Paclitaxel
• preCISION Oxaliplatin
• preCISION Gemcitabine
• preCISION Capecitabine
• preCISION PARP inhibitor
• preCISION PD-1 Inhibitor
• preCISION AKT inhibitor
• preCISION Balixafortide

The combination of Avacta’s two proprietary platforms to deliver a chemotherapy and an immunotherapy in a single drug molecule has two key points:

The "warhead"
Released in the tumour by the preCISION linker chemistry.
• Selected to kill tumour cells and create an inflammatory event that recruits the immune system.
• Potential for a pipeline of TMACs using different immuno-active warheads

Then the Affimer Immunotherapy:
• Supports the immune attack on the tumour by blocking the signal the tumour uses to evade the immune system.
• Potential of a pipeline of immunotherapy and targeting Affimers including bispecifics

If the trials are succesful with AVA6000 the developments in these other treatments will surely be accelerated. Within 2 to 3 years we could see the results of these developments being used in Oncology clinics around world saving lives.

The funding from income from the Covid19 testing using our Antigen LFD and BAMS projects using the Affimers will accelerate this further.

More details here: https://avacta.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Placing-Presentation-June-2020-1.pdf
Surely investors can see the value here!

Cheers, RK

I think Gambitxjs is 100% correct our company is so over sold at this time and given the potential increase in vanadium prices as well as our increase in output in 2020, Bushveld Minerals is a very strong buy. In today’s world it is sitting very much under the radar, with so many companies at very low valuations caused by the Covid19 situation. However, just a few key news articles will set this a light and we should finally get on the road to an appreciable value.
I still think Bushveld remains on people’s watch lists. Let’s remember that there are a lot who bought in during 2018 and saw huge potential. That has not gone away, only the sentiment. Get the sentiment back and this will recover strongly.
I remain invested here and will do with a firm understanding that this company has such huge upside potential it should be a real long term asset to any investment portfolio right now.
This board has a vast number of highly respected experts in the vanadium market and is a great insight into what is happening and what is highly likely to happen.
Cheers RK

With respect to the Cytiva partnership, I am very confident that this will be a success. I think we would all like this test to have been ready 5 or 6 weeks ago, but as Alastair Smith has said many times it is better to have a test with is accurate and has the best specificity in the world which people and healthcare officials can rely on. He has made points many times in recent presentations that many other tests have not been reliable enough. Ours needs to be the most reliable and available to the masses. This will be good for users and investors a like. If it is this good it can sell in numbers, his words, of hundreds of millions per month. I dont need to underline the consequences of that to investors.

Cheers, RK

The Introduction:
Avacta is a Biotech company with two operating segments, the Therapeutics operations based at Avacta’s Cambridge site (pre|CISION™ ) and the Diagnostics operations ( Affimer® ) in Wetherby.

The Expertise!
Avacta has two key areas - Affimer® technology a uniquely developed technology which is used as a diagnostic to find virus’s based on a human protein called Stefin A. The Affimer® platform is Avacta’s proprietary therapeutic platform with its intellectual property covered by several patent families.

Projects:
Affimer® technology projects with LG Chem just on licensing can be worth up to $310 million.
ADC project backed by Astra Zeneca for PBD Warheads - loaded affirmer drugs $500 million.
A joint venture in South Korea with Daewoong a leading Korean pharma company, to develop the next generation of cell and gene therapies, incorporating Affimer proteins to enhance the immune-modulatory effects. Avacta holds 45% of the business but the finance is provided by venture capitalists where the market potential is still too large to actually pinpoint as there are NDA's in place so the market information can't be shared. Huge potential!
The huge project with Affimer® technology with Moderna which again will give drug deliveries for mRNA delivery is still progressing. Huge potential!

Affimer® technology to detect Covid19 using Antigen tests the partners are Cytiva (LFD) and Adeptrix (BOMS) with distribution through 4 Mass Spectrometer suppliers
There are existing 5 other Affirmer evaluations progressing, 17 other projects already delivered for evaluation, and a further 7 development projects initiated!

The Expertise:
Avacta’s pre|CISION™ technology can be utilised in a drug conjugate linker or to generate chemotherapy pro-drugs that are only activated in the tumour.
When added to a chemotoxin, the pre|CISION™ substrate prevents the chemotoxin from entering cells and therefore renders it inert until the substrate is cleaved in the tumour microenvironment. Using this pro-drug approach, the systemic exposure to the chemotoxin is dramatically reduced, and the safety and therapeutic window of these powerful anti-cancer treatments are improved.

The projects:
pre|CISION™ partnerships which are looking to start with opportunities in AST, Breast and Ovarian cancer the EU/ US market potential is around $1.5 billion.

Research Opportunities for the reader:

Broker Note: https://www.docdroid.net/efF886d/avacta-full-note-060520-pdf

This weeks Presentation:
https://youtu.be/DzoxXCB4or0 - from 1hr 33min 50 seconds

Latest technology from Avacta: https://avacta.com/alastair-smith-video-presentation-sars-cov-2-neutralising-affimer-reagents/

A good read from a well-known researcher is found here:
https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/avacta-group-update-ii-part-i.pdf

Still the best investment decision in 2020!
Cheers RK

All my buys at the moment are long term holds.
These are all within my pension pot. I am happy to hold these for 2 to 3 years.
Cheers RK