The great thing with Vanchem having 3 Kilns, it gives options to Bushveld in the next 3 to 5 years, to run the ore at the most effective location and options to keep output up when one plant is on maintenance.
The greenfield will be funded out of a mix of income and debt (you are always best to use someone else's money to fund large capital projects), and keep the cash strong unless borrowing becomes expensive! I don't think we will see the Greenfield site being operative till 2024. So we need to be patient for that one, plus they have off-take options for ore (from Mokopane) directly to China to add another income stream if required!
Ophidian, your point about a greenfield site being built at Mokopane is included in the original scoping document -http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/201602040458050.pdf a report you will have read from cover to cover at some point I am sure. Both you and BBN. I found it months ago a fascinating document.
Right now we have the target of 10,000 mtV as nameplate capacity for Vametco and Vanchem, which in todays market will give us around 10% of the worlds Vanadium. However, as we well aware the market demand from VRFB will increase this. So we can be sure by the end of 2022, we will need to be expanding and this is where the new "Greenfield Mokopane" site will be ideal. I would expect this to be initially targeting 5,000 mtV (I guess completion in 2023/4) but with the capacity to increase further to 10,000 mtV. This would give us somewhere between 16,800 mtV and 20,000 mtV per annum being mined and processed with potential for Vanadium electrolyte for 2 to 2.5GWh - this is likely to be bringing in a huge revenue, being mixed between Nitovan for the steel mills, V205 for steel and electrolyte as well as vanadium chemicals for other growing industries. We will have Bushveld Energy selling electrolyte, assembling VRFB, Bushveld Energy Projects enabling Renewable projects across African and India and a strong income from the Vanadium Electrolyte industry as well as a share of income from acquired VRFB manufacturers?
This should give us a very strong income, good profits leading to a very good annual dividend. The SP could easily be in the range of £3 to £5 with a dividend of around 4 to 5% - the equivalent of 15 to 25p per share. These figures may look odd and exaggerated to some, but seeing the progress and the global need for stationary energy storage, there is still no reason in my mind these achievements are not all possible. Of course, there may be many aspects that we are unaware of today which may accelerate these forecasts further.
These points again underline the reason why this investment is truly a standout. A 3 to 5 years plan is highlighted by Fortune in the interview today, but Mikhail is clearly looking to 2027 and beyond - so why not have a 10-year plan or even a 15-year plan?
These are ideas and I am not saying we will see a huge rise in SP straight away, but we will soon see I am sure the real value of the business today being realised.
The last 5 minutes have some mega openings especially BMN taking positions in VRFB manufacturers! The enabling projects and leading project leadership. Mikhail expects the need for Vanadium in VRFB to be 55,000 tonnes per year by 2027.
YTSS, you are right but that imminent sound very imminent to me. FM sound very very excited, and the link to Vanchem is underlined very clearly. There is no doubt it is going to be confirmed very soon. I would not be surprised to see this coming out at the same time as Vanchem purchase being completed!
People keep asking what are SP drivers, well those two together have phenomenal upside potential!
Fortune also mentions towards the end that the revenue on the Bushveld Energy business will be 5 to 10 times that of the mining business. He also made clear that in future dividends will be paid from free cash as they are generation good income from the mine.
Wul, the RNS you are looking for was on the 31st July:
· The Environmental Impact Assessment ("EIA") for the proposed plant in East London, South Africa has passed the public participation stage and is on track to be completed this year.
· The first batch of electrolyte was successfully produced using Vametco's feedstock, with the samples being sent to vanadium battery companies for testing.
Vanadium electrolyte rental model
· Implementation of the first rental contract was announced with Avalon Battery Corporation and its customer, Sandbar, in the United States.
Eskom VRFB project
· The Vanadium Redox Flow Battery ("VRFB") installed with Eskom was commissioned and continues to operate.
Vametco based Solar Mini-Grid Project
· Commenced a number of activities including an Environmental Assessment, a grid connection and geotechnical studies. Procurement for the project will commence in the third quarter of 2019.
All points very positive and will lead to huge upside for BE.
I absolutely would add the increased production at Vametco Pdub.
I do think though that the opportunities at Vanchem to get 3 kilns running is a massive job to be completed. If Vametco can run effectively at the 3400 mtV level with optimised efficiencies which they are getting closure too as level it is very positive too.
Roosters - I would prefer they use that 6 million to complete works on Vametco and Vanchem so they are ready to supply the VRFB world as it expands.
If people want to see the SP move upwards the only way is to share the Bushveld story and encourage people who can see where this could go to buy in to it. Nothing is a sure thing, but this company over the last 3 years has beat the market and set itself apart from many businesses in SA too.
For my the key drivers as asked by F100:
- completion of Vanchem
- Mokopane licence
- completion of Electrolyte plant at BE
- JSE listing and change to the UK listing to the main market if possible.
- multiple BE supply contracts
- joint venture with a renewables energy company in Africa for solar or wind to accelerate implication of mini-grid projects
All potentially SP drivers.
But the key is bringing in investors who share the vision of the BOD and investors like you and me!
CC is being pedantic! I am sure Pdub meant to type 0.900p which was the price at the close of business last Friday, not 9p. Easy typo to make!
The rest of Pdub's post stands and is clearly endorsed by the community here. Pdub is a much-respected contributor to this board. If there was an award for a Lifetime outstanding contributor to the Bushveld community he would get such an award. It is also why he is the most respected contributor on LSE!
Thanks, Pdub. I think both of us have over the years given balance in our thoughts on the future in terms of the risks multiple times. There is no such investment that gives a one-way upward trend. Not gold or even diamonds, prices vary. But a successful business will grow if it has a management with motivation, astute business acremen, good products, a material in demand and can see a way forward in a market which is opening up and can educate people in that market place with reasoned and justifiable arguments. Bushveld Minerals has all these in place. We may not progress in terms of 'achieved value' as quickly as we may want, but we are doing so and will continue to do so and it is important to share how this can be bourne out. So people can understand what this company is doing and the market is performing in. That is after all the purpose of a share chat forum for investors. I think this board does it better than any other I have ever read.
Onwards and upwards! Have a great day all!
When I started this thread earlier, it was clearly to highlight that as a business Bushveld Minerals are doing exceptionally well and there profit and lack of debt, makes this right now one of the most investable companies around, not only just established but with a clear plan to maket growth which is very strong compared to most businesses which can see steady growth year on year. Bushveld have made huge progress since March 2017, in terms of acquisitions and mine optimisation as well as a clear plan to open open up their market potential as well as make clear a way to grow the vertical integration which has the potential to multiply the growth and income multiple times of the next 3 to 5 years, which likely good dividends as well. I have to say I really cannot see this company staying listed on AIM for too much longer. I have no idea if they will move, but they need to change the mechanism if and when they list on JSE and that it would not surprise me would be the time to move onto the FTSE. With a strong marketing campaign amongst the investment world backed up by solid growth the story will get out and then many new large investors are likely to come on board. We are not an SXX with massive debt, we are a profitable business with a growing market and this will wake people up.
There is no doubt that the last 8 months has been disappointing for many investors and I am sure no one could have foreseen the drop in SP, but with the solid foundation and our income we should recover at some point in the not too distant future very quickly, and any losses investors are sitting one will not only be crystallised, but seen as a thing in the past and we will be back to the massively happy board we had last October and November when people were coming in here new on a daily basis. We should remember that nothing has changed in terms of the business, in fact, it has improved dramatically! So we are solid investment.
Hopefully a new chancellor and a new team focused on climate change and UK energy, will see the need to change the VAT on renewable energy projects and increase tax on coal, and then increase tax on replacement gas and oil boilers to incentivise and bring the focus on replacing home heating to either using renewable electricity suppliers, air sourced heat pumps and new builds encourage the use of ground source heating systems mixed with solar roofs and home energy storage. There is a lot to do here and if people really want change to reduce carbon emissions then the incentives have to be strong backed up with 5 or 10 years finance packages to make it affordable for every home.