ninjamagic I think you have nailed all the points with respect to our POC Lateral Flow Test.
Don’t suppose you know someone who could make an Avacta commercial or promotional film ;-))
I think we will get a new partnership/s this week and I am very much hoping to here that the prototype POC test is ready for trials and validation. If it is it will be ahead of schedule.
I think a strong week is ahead!
Looking for a number 1 in the RNS box at 7:00.
Happy Monday everyone!
I expect two significant updates this week. The change in the position from today’s news will focus the world towards testing, tracking and a virus blocker. Pressure will mount over the days ahead.
Now is the time for the world to take this very seriously indeed otherwise life will never be the same again.
Governments need to act immediately.
We will see.
17:15 Germany's coronavirus reproduction rate has jumped to 2.88 — almost three times what it needs to be to contain the outbreak. The reproduction rate, or 'R' value, estimates how many people an infected person passes the virus to. Experts say a rate of less than one is needed to eliminate the disease.
Figures released by the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases on Sunday said the average four-day reproduction rate jumped from 1.79 on Saturday, to 2.88. The 7-day 'r' value, which tends to fluctuate less dramatically, increased from 1.55 on Saturday to 2.03 on Sunday.
The institute stressed that the increases were mainly due to local outbreaks in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia, where more than 1,300 workers at a meat-processing plant were recently found to have been infected.
"Further developments need to be monitored closely during the upcoming days, especially in regard to whether case numbers are increasing outside of outbreak contexts," the institute said in its daily report.
RD I have given examples before based on the POC testing look through my posting history. It’s there. My estimate of our margin is based on a profit of 70p per test.
How many tests are needed per day world wide. Assuming our selectivity and specivity is in the top band which will make it the test in the market place.
Let’s start with 100 million tests per month global sales for 12 months for POC is £70 million per month profit x 12 months = £840 Million.
Then we have the BAMS test, this may have a lower profit margin but let’s assume they are able to break into the market dominated by PCR and assume 20 million test per month at 40p profit per test. That would by £96 Million per year.
The total profit would be very close to £1 billion. These are estimates but of course sales of POC could easily increase way beyond these levels. The presentation this week suggested in excess of 25 million tests are required per day. Alastair Smith suggests sales of 100’s of millions per month! So you can see the valuation on a PE of 1 already gets to my estimate.
I don’t think any of these numbers are unreasonable.
Be interested to see your numbers....
In this research piece by our friend Myles McNaulty - https://aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2020/05/avacta-group-update-ii-part-i.pdf
You will find the following research:
‘Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus task force coordinator, in an interview on NBC News (Sunday 26 April), stated:
“We have to have a breakthrough in innovation in testing. We have to be able to detect antigen... RNA testing (PCR) will carry us certainly through the Spring... but we need to have a huge technology breakthrough and we’re working on that.”
The day afterwards, Paul Romer, a former World Bank chief economist who won the 2018 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences for modelling the US and global economies, called for a $100 billion COVID-19 testing programme, per annum (or until a vaccine has been universally administered), in the US alone. He stated that the government should be testing every person, every two weeks, and isolate anyone who tested positive.
Earlier in April, Harvard University published a report entitled Roadmap to Pandemic Resilience, which called for 5 million tests per day in the US by early June, increasing to 20 million tests per day by midsummer.
Given that the US has completed a cumulative total of circa 14 million tests this year, it is abundantly clear that there is no chance that PCR capacity – even if it were scaled up by several multiples in the coming weeks – would be sufficient to implement the desired wholesale population screening.’
Given the state of Covid19 in the US and the American continent as a whole, they are so far from achieving there set out goals and the virus continues to grow through poor government leadership, testing and isolation is the only way forward otherwise they are going to have a monumental death rate on there hands.
The potential for an Avacta POC test looks certain to sell in massive numbers.
I will just say to you that I am very positive about the future of this company as the Affimer technology has the potential to change the diagnosis platforms and the therapeutic platforms in ways never used before.
The future potential and valuation opportunities for a company leading a new treatment system for cancer reducing side effects from chemotherapy is super valuable.
There are some people who will always assume a watch or a diamond is a fake. There are many people who don’t research a business and it’s long term potential. I have done both here and I am very comfortable with my investment here.
I don’t care at all what you think because it is of no consequence to me. But I stand by my long term prediction that with successful stage 1 clinical trials completed on the AVA6000 chemotherapy pre|CISION Affimer product the company will have a valuation of circa 4 to 5 billion pounds.
If you knew anything about oncology and the value of this you would understand this. I am in no way undermining you investment it is my thoughts and I know through multiple respected experts in pharmaceuticals and oncology that this prediction is conservative. I have no connection with JR, but I do have connections with some very well respected investors across various industries as well as people expert in company valuations from my own business background.
My first buy into Avacta was well below 40p and my highest buy was just under £1.80.
The Covid19 part of the business is impossible to give an accurate valuation to as it depends on multiple aspects of success and global sales. But around £1 billion market cap would be close. If they can develop the Covid19 blocker therapeutic and bring it to market you can more than double that for multiple reasons as it means that in-body Affimer technology use is safe and this will accelerate developments of other treatments and raise the profile of the business.
Do I believe in promoting businesses I am invested in? Well you would have to be pretty dumb not to. After all why would you invest in a company you don’t believe is capable of delivering strong returns on your investment.
What is your story, or are you a bit doggy?
Enjoy your Sunday!
Avacta is a Biotech company with two operating segments, the Therapeutics operations based at Avacta’s Cambridge site (pre|CISION™ ) and the Diagnostics operations ( Affimer® ) in Wetherby.
Avacta has two key areas - Affimer® technology a uniquely developed technology which is used as a diagnostic to find virus’s based on a human protein called Stefin A. The Affimer® platform is Avacta’s proprietary therapeutic platform with its intellectual property covered by several patent families.
Affimer® technology projects with LG Chem just on licensing can be worth up to $310 million.
ADC project backed by Astra Zeneca for PBD Warheads - loaded affirmer drugs $500 million.
A joint venture in South Korea with Daewoong a leading Korean pharma company, to develop the next generation of cell and gene therapies, incorporating Affimer proteins to enhance the immune-modulatory effects. Avacta holds 45% of the business but the finance is provided by venture capitalists where the market potential is still too large to actually pinpoint as there are NDA's in place so the market information can't be shared. Huge potential!
The huge project with Affimer® technology with Moderna which again will give drug deliveries for mRNA delivery is still progressing. Huge potential!
Affimer® technology to detect Covid19 using Antigen tests the partners are Cytiva (LFD) and Adeptrix (BOMS) with distribution through 4 Mass Spectrometer suppliers
There are existing 5 other Affirmer evaluations progressing, 17 other projects already delivered for evaluation, and a further 7 development projects initiated!
Avacta’s pre|CISION™ technology can be utilised in a drug conjugate linker or to generate chemotherapy pro-drugs that are only activated in the tumour.
When added to a chemotoxin, the pre|CISION™ substrate prevents the chemotoxin from entering cells and therefore renders it inert until the substrate is cleaved in the tumour microenvironment. Using this pro-drug approach, the systemic exposure to the chemotoxin is dramatically reduced, and the safety and therapeutic window of these powerful anti-cancer treatments are improved.
pre|CISION™ partnerships which are looking to start with opportunities in AST, Breast and Ovarian cancer the EU/ US market potential is around $1.5 billion.
Research Opportunities for the reader:
Broker Note: https://www.docdroid.net/efF886d/avacta-full-note-060520-pdf
The last Presentation:
https://youtu.be/DzoxXCB4or0 - from 1hr 33min 50 seconds
Latest technology from Avacta: https://avacta.com/alastair-smith-video-presentation-sars-cov-2-neutralising-affimer-reagents/
A good read from a well-known researcher is found here:
Still the best investment decision in 2020!
Where will we be in the future if Avacta fail? Well on Covid19 testing I don’t actually see a fail. The question is what will the actual numbers be in sales and where will the virus be in 1, 2, 3, 6 and 12 months. That is the real question. My worst case scenario is that the companies many other partnerships have a 40% success rate and Avacta build new tests for other diseases and we end up with a market cap of around £1 billion in 12 months time circa £4.20 to £5.20. That is my worst case scenario.
But I am far more hopeful and I see a significant premium on that valuation given all we know currently and the opportunities before us.
This will remain a strong buy until stage 1 cancer therapeutics have been completed. Then it will either be a hold or such a strong buy we get bought out for circa £4 to £5 billion because that will be the minimum value of out up and patent.
Oilman1984, I have no experience of Jonesrichard before this board, and I know Sirius Minerals as a project has huge potential but as a company it had huge debt and the valuation of the business was frankly ridiculous which is why I did not invest.
Avacta is completely different in that as a Biotech company with a truly unique platform which is patented, it has the ability to build up on multiple levels prove its technology and in markets which are highly lucrative. This is not fertiliser, it is live changing technology which will save lives and health companies billions. With that believe it or not will come what today seem like crazy valuations. Believe me I thought the same before serious research into this market.
IF, this company delivers on its promise, it has the likely potential to have a very serious valuation based on successful Covid19 testing and the incredible opportunity in pre|CISION therapeutics.
So valuations with a share price above £20 are real and highly likely.
Research this market globally and you will see.
PL75, the equipment and solutions for plastic recycling is one of many products I have in my business portfolio and there are many projects live in the UK which can offer perfect solutions for mixed plastic recycling as well as more focused polymer groups.
The key to recycling of medical products where normality is incineration is re-extrusion due to the melt temperature as it destroys the bacteria.
Potential for post consumer uses is huge. Provided they are collected.
Ajok, the whole point of a share chat forum is to bounce out ideas.
We could say that Avacta are just dreaming and have zero chance in success and we should sell up immediately and put a bet on who big the global debt will be at the end of 2020. Now that will be a very big number.
As you are clearly a pessimist and want to challenge every concept of potential success, you might want to consider selling up and choosing a sure thing like.... Ah, nothing is a sure thing anymore.
Life and investment is about levels of risk / reward.
The only thing you can be sure of is death and tax, and we will all be paying plenty of the later in the years ahead.
I would put Avacta’s chance of success with the Covid19 testing at 95% sure they will be successful and on the inbody pre|CISION at 50% as it has never been tried on humans.
Just my thoughts and all are welcome.
About 15%. Would be my answer. To that question on Covid19 testing.
The key question is what percentage of the current market cap and share price does our current value against successful stage 1 clinical trials on the pre|CISION chemotherapy therapeutics - about 5% is the answer to that question.
Success in both will lead to a buyout of Avacta in my opinion.
Yorkshirepragma, I think a share of the market of 50% given that we are the only saliva antigen test close to being ready with the highest possible sensitivity and specitivity going to be on the market. The other 50% maybe taken by others, or if we are the only one, then the sky is the limit.
Currently the America’s market is the big one, but areas of south east Asia, Africa and China are likely to be an opportunity too.
If we assumed that every day 0.05% of the worlds population needed testing every day, that number would be 365 million tests per day. So 25 million a day is a drop in the ocean.
The numbers are mind blowing, but we have to get there. Given the feedback and emphasis given in the presentation on Thursday evening it likes we are going to get there.
I am well aware there are many steps still to go, but if the worst happens and we get a second global spike and we have ‘the’ test then the numbers of these tests will be huge.
The next big opportunity would be a recycling system to size reduce them and use the materials in some other product after re-extrusion (220C) which would eliminate the virus in the polymer. No I have some contacts in this industry who I am meeting on Monday! Watch this space....
The link is here to the David Wilson write up, all on the Avacta website, under news:
Professor David Bhella, Professor of Structural Virology (Centre for Virus Research)at the University of Glasgow, commented:
“There is significant interest around the world in neutralising therapies for COVID-19 given the uncertainties around the timeline for developing an effective vaccine and deploying it.
The infectivity assays that we have carried out with the Affimer reagents have gone very well and they show that there are a number of them that are potent inhibitors of a SARS-COV-2 model virus entry into human cells.
Given the excellent performance of these novel reagents in the assays, and the other benefits of Affimer reagents, there should be considerable interest from potential partners in developing them as a therapy for COVID-19.”
This announcement contains information which, prior to its disclosure, was considered inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation (EU) No 596/2014 (MAR).
When Avacta release our POC Lateral Flow Assay test for use anywhere and by everyone it is highly likely to have the highest percentages seen in the market place and these two numbers, plus the low cost and saving to every hospital and buisiness that requires testing will be key to it becoming the world’s best selling Covid19 test.
Avacta expect sales of around 25 million units per day (which means they need multiple production partners around the world) and if we look at a profit margin of around 70p per LFD then the income potential for Avacta is enormous!
The realisation of this is very close and by August we will surely have approved product.
spbhoy the easiest way to buy is set ‘create limit to buy’ this you can set the price and the number shares you wish to buy and when the price hits this number they will deal this for you.
This is very useful if you want to buy on a dip.
They have a similar option for setting up sells.
This are definitely available on HL. I guess other providers also have similar options.
It always works for me providing the price set is reached.
Hope this helps,