TL I gave my real view on potential valuations and share price in a post from this morning.
I think these numbers are realistic, but we will see.
The future will be revealed in the weeks ahead and the RNS’s uncovering partnerships and data as well as products to market. This will be gauged and the market value will be underlined by the global situation with respect the virus situation globally, but here in the UK as well.
If we have a further second spikes UK, interest and momentum will be great indeed. Especially if we see some large gains in the next two weeks.
Time will tell. But you have to be very optimistic that the confidence of the CEO Alastair Smith will be realised.
Well Brightspark! Let’s go on a PE of 10. I think Avacta would dwarf Tesla! LOL!
The fact is we don’t know the final profit, we don’t know how many we will sell per month.
I guess for the market size you have to look at the numbers Novacyt are selling in terms of PCR tests. That gives an idea of the numbers which are obtainable. There are many many players out there, but simple, fast and low cost will be the money.
Given there were over 200,000 new cases in the last 24 hours you have to say that means 200,000 people were tested. That means the market is at least 5 times that as not everyone who is tested will be positive. Also right now not all parts of the world have the tests available. But let’s say 1 million tests per day. That is 365 million per year as it is today. With mass testing we could easily see 10 times that number.
But only time will tell. Avacta’s job is to get the best test to market as soon as possible with the shortest result time and most accurate results that are possible at a price which makes all other tests irrelevant. Not asking much I know.
DOH85, yes sorry that is the market! I was watching the race! I think Avacta has the ‘potential’ to take at least 10 percent of the market to start with, however if the test really is as good as expected and the price is super competitive they could take a larger and larger share of the market. It is truly dependent on how much the world truly puts its requirement on testing. Given the global population of over 7.5 billion people and people may need to be tested multiple times depending on their location and the exposure risk, or work place, the number tests required may be way above the market expectation.
The world needs testing like nothing else until the virus neutraliser is available around the world.
Thanks for picking me up there! I should have re-read my post before posting.
Avacta expect to sell 100 million to 200million tests per month Once the test is validated.
That is a lot of tests with a good margin for Avacta. If that pans out then the revenue in the next twelve months will be enormous. Imagine more than 70p per unit profit....
Antelope, you might want to spend some time on the Avacta website, especially the ‘news’ section, you will fin a huge amount of information and presentations.
Hope this helps, but Avacta are far more than just a Covid19 testing company. Which I am sure your research will unlock.
Bram, I would say it is imminent, but is that this week, I cannot tell you. But if it was how amazing would that be. It is one of the most important announcements as it will really help development of the use of Affimer technology ‘in the body’. You would expect the work to be partnered with a company also looking to use the ‘warhead’ chemotherapy treatments.
If you would like a simple estimation of thoughts over the months ahead based on news, delivery of BAMS, POC, Stage 1 SARS-COV2 Neutraliser, Stage 1 AVA6000 clinical trials and beyond here goes.
These are potential share price estimations and there are many factors which may affect these so please do not hold me to them!
1. Succesful BAMS clinical testing and first partnership with sales - Share price moving into the £2 to £3 range
2. Partnership to develop the SARS-COV2 Blocker - £2.50 to £3.50
3. Succesful approval for the Point of Care LFD with a minimum of two production partnerships and a number of large orders - £4 to £5
4. Increased sales of POC test and numbers growing exponentially around the world £5 to £8
5. Confirmation of first clinical trials for AVA6000 £5 to £8
6. Successful clinical trials for AVA6000 and moving to stage 2 and stage 3 clinical trials - £10 to £15
Beyond this and within 18 to 24 months with continued progress a share price in excess of £20.
I am sure many will make many comments on this and they are all welcome but this is my thoughts!
When we look at the potential for Avacta it is all about Affimer technology.
This is a patented technology which is used to detect proteins and works like a magnet. The Affimer is a powerful magnet and the target is like particles of iron fillings and those targets are found quickly in the body.
We have seen that Avacta have developed the pre|CISION technology for delivering a drug to a target, with the focus on chemotherapy drugs to cancer cells.
Then our focus is currently on diagnostics and right now having a group of Affimers which can detect the protein on the spike on the Covid19 virus. This will come to market either in the form of lab diagnostic or on a test which will use a simple strip like a pregnancy test called a lateral flow device. This Avacta test will use saliva.
The potential is to be able to use Affirmers for diagnostics in many other deceases and illnesses. But given the work in cancer treatments which will go through stage 1 trials late this year and completed in Q1 2021, it is more than possible that Affirmers could be used for diagnostics in oncology. This would speed up the opportunity to treat a patient. The company have not given anything of this away at this point, but it must be a strong possibility. Imagine you have a simple diagnostic test to specific cancers and then you could use a targeted treatment to destroy the cancer cells, the whole oncology process could be simplified and this would save billions financially and of course save lives. The combination for Avacta IP could prove to be incredible.
It is a question I think I would like to see answered by Alastair Smith at some point in the future.
Does anyone else think this is possible? The impact would be huge.
Whilst we are desperate for mass testing to become available, the almost more important development is the collaborative work with the Centre for Virus Research at the University of Glasgow has shown that Affimer reagents which bind to the SARS-COV-2 virus spike protein prevent infection of human cells by a SARS-COV-2 model virus and therefore provide a potential therapy for COVID-19 infection.
Recently, Avacta reported that several of the Affimer reagents that had been generated to develop COVID-19 antigen tests inhibited the interaction between the coronavirus' spike protein and a receptor found on human cells, called ACE2, which the virus spike protein binds to as the first step in infecting cells.
Avacta has now successfully completed the initial phase of a collaboration with Professor David Bhella at the University of Glasgow showing that these "neutralising" Affimer reagents prevent a SARS-COV-2 model virus from entering human cells and therefore provide a potential therapy for COVID-19.
Affimer reagents have key benefits compared with antibodies as virus neutralising therapies: Their small size and high solubility means that a much higher concentration of Affimer molecules can be used in the drug formulation to more effectively block the spike proteins on each virus particle and better protect the patient; bispecific and trispecific Affimer neutralising therapies that bind to more than one part of the spike protein could ensure the effectiveness of the neutralising therapy even if the virus' spike protein mutates.
Neutralising therapies could be given to those exposed to the virus, such as health and social-care workers, to prevent infection, as well as to patients already infected by the virus, to help treat and prevent disease progression. There is ongoing significant investment by large pharmaceutical companies such as AstraZeneca, GSK, Boehringer Ingelheim and others to develop neutralising therapies for COVID-19.
Given the excellent performance of these novel reagents in the assays, and the other benefits of Affimer reagents, there should be considerable interest from potential partners in developing them as a therapy for COVID-19.
The next announcement from Avacta on this massive break through will be hugely valuable and this partnership when it is announced will be transformational for all their therapeutic Affimer technology.
Could this come this week? I hope it comes very soon. It will again take many months to go through the testing and stage 1 clinical trials, but this is the key to stopping the the danger in 2021.
The value of this treatment could be huge.
The value of this company when we are able to realise annual capacity of 8400 mtV per year with all in costs of say $19 US per kilo and a sales price $30 US per kilo, let alone higher prices.
When you consider a 50% of this volume could be turned into vanadium electrolyte which will have a considerably higher market value, let alone the lease incomes which will come from this over a 30 year life of a VRFB system the numbers which can be earned per year by Bushveld are astronomical.
So investing here based on a two to three year plan is likely to produce exceptional returns. Let alone the short term growth over the next few months. With global infrastructure projects getting huge funding to get the global economy back on track, the steel and energy markets will likely see a huge upturn. Vanadium has been a key mineral used to strengthen steel and rebar production used in construction is one of the key drivers. Today the amount of vanadium required in rebar is regulated and this means the percentages used is much higher than before. This is good news for vanadium demand. This may lead to increases in global vanadium pricing as demand could be higher than the market can supply, which could accelerate profits here.
So short term and long term revenues look very good.
A company who are involved in the world of vanadium!
- Bushveld Minerals are a "Profitable Vertically Integrated Vanadium Business!"
- With 3 mines – Vametco, Brits and Mokopane
- Nitrovan is a key product to strengthen steel from its Vametco Mine
- Vanadium is also used in a breaking electrolyte technology used in large energy storage batteries
- Bushveld has two processing plants Vametco 3200 mtV and Vanchem 1100 mtV - currently producing a combination of 4300 mtV, in last year with an average selling price of circa US$40 per kilo with an operating cost of circa US$19 – but operation costs are now much lower in 2020
- Bushveld has plans to more than double the capacity of these two plants to 8400 mtV pa within 3 years
- Of the 3 mines Vametco is in full operation, Brits is an extension to Vametco and Mokopane which has its licence for mining fully approved and this will be the largest high-grade Vanadium mine in the world – DFS later this year and expect the mine to be opened in 2021
- Bushveld has built up a new division called Bushveld Energy which has part ownership of Invinity Energy Storage plc and Enerox GmbH part of its VIP program.
- Bushveld Energy has installed at the Eskom Battery Test facility a VRFB which has been operational over a year which is being used for evaluation purposes
- The Bushveld Electrolyte Company is building a Vanadium Electrolyte 200MWh plant in East London (SA)
- The Electrolyte plant will eventually have the capacity for 1000MWh of electrolyte
- 1000MWh of electrolyte needs approximately 5000 mtV per year
- Bushveld Energy is working with multiple partners around the world through Vanitec to build the strongest business case for VRFB
- Bushveld Energy plan to build an assembly plant for VRFB is SA – an Enerox subsidiary is possible?
- The world supply chain for vanadium remains in deficit and today even more so, Bushveld Minerals are so far ahead of the other players. Prices will be rising quickly.
Vanadium prices are rising in 2020 with the price close to US$26 per kilo and our cost is below US$15 per kilo and we will be producing circa 4,000,000 kilos of vanadium in 2020!
The current limited supply puts Bushveld in one of the strongest positions as a primary Vanadium supplier with strong revenue growth predicted year on year!
If you are not sure - then read this:
Last financial report here:https://webcasting.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcast/5eea233d5e278421d0698edb/5f01a11575c33f15e4927f06
Latest broker report following 2020 Q4 from SP Angel:
Company presentation – February 2020:
Latest Interview with our CEO
O&W that JV project is likely to bring Substantial value to Avacta and the opportunity to create a virus blocking treatment maybe the key to wiping it out, certainly it will stop it in its tracks and safe lives.
Let’s hope that JV is announced very soon.
So the UK forgot that we have been through lockdown in 2020. A new day July 4th and people go out and that Virus is forgotten!
If we don’t have a huge second wave and another lockdown in 2020 it will be a surprise.
I am amazed at people’s response to opening up. Let’s hope there isn’t a huge spike post yesterday.
If there is I am sure Avacta’s new Rapid Point of Care Covid19 test will be ready to meet the new challenge.
Have a good Sunday all.
The latest interview of our CEO Mr Alastair Smith
https://youtu.be/cil4pGKSCWg - the key latest developments are very clear as well as potentially the most exciting prospect in the history of chemotherapy - targeted treatments with no or few side effects.
The value of the pre|CISION chemotherapy alone makes this company an incredible investment opportunity.
Avacta is a Biotech company with two operating segments, the Therapeutics operations based at Avacta’s Cambridge site (pre|CISION™ ) and the Diagnostics operations ( Affimer® ) in Wetherby.
Avacta has two key areas - Affimer® technology a uniquely developed technology which is used as a diagnostic to find virus’s based on a human protein called Stefin A. The Affimer® platform is Avacta’s proprietary therapeutic platform with its intellectual property covered by several patent families.
Affimer® technology projects with LG Chem just on licensing can be worth up to $310 million.
ADC project backed by Astra Zeneca for PBD Warheads - loaded affirmer drugs $500 million.
A joint venture in South Korea with Daewoong a leading Korean pharma company, to develop the next generation of cell and gene therapies, incorporating Affimer proteins to enhance the immune-modulatory effects. Avacta holds 45% of the business but the finance is provided by venture capitalists where the market potential is still too large to actually pinpoint as there are NDA's in place so the market information can't be shared. Huge potential!
The huge project with Affimer® technology with Moderna which again will give drug deliveries for mRNA delivery is still progressing. Huge potential!
Affimer® technology to detect Covid19 using Antigen tests the partners are Cytiva (LFD) and Adeptrix (BOMS) with distribution through 4 Mass Spectrometer suppliers (both close to production)
There are existing 5 other Affirmer evaluations progressing, 17 other projects already delivered for evaluation, and a further 7 development projects initiated!
Avacta’s pre|CISION™ technology can be utilised in a drug conjugate linker or to generate chemotherapy pro-drugs that are only activated in the tumour.
When added to a chemotoxin, the pre|CISION™ substrate prevents the chemotoxin from entering cells and therefore renders it inert until the substrate is cleaved in the tumour microenvironment. Using this pro-drug approach, the systemic exposure to the chemotoxin is dramatically reduced, and the safety and therapeutic window of these powerful anti-cancer treatments are improved.
pre|CISION™ partnerships which are looking to start with opportunities in AST, Breast and Ovarian cancer the EU/ US market potential is around $1.5 billion.
Research Opportunities for the reader:
Broker Note: https://mcusercontent.com/d9ebd7c1aa0f3dbc5fab42eca/files/28b0a706-057a-4dda-bc5f-e24c2afca3cd/AvactaGroupplc_24_6_20_FINAL_BG.01.pdf
The last Presentation:
https://youtu.be/DzoxXCB4or0 - from 1hr 33min 50 seconds
Latest from Avacta: https://avacta.com/how-diagnostic-test-performance-is-measured/
A good read from a well-known researcher is found here:
Investment for 2020, it sure looks good!
Good morning all,
I may not have posted here for a few weeks, but I have been keeping an eye on the vanadium world and held a tight grip on my holding here.
There was a lot of positives from last weeks Vanitec meeting and the future of the VRFB looks stronger than ever.
Bushveld Minerals have considering the fall of the vanadium price last year played a blinder. The results for 2019 were exceptional. The company returned strong profits and with the Vanchem acquisition they have the makings of a super vanadium company.
The comments I made yesterday on another chat board in response to BMN’s valuation was it will take some time to reach it’s true value. I don’t mean the current broker target, I mean a valuation that will reflect where the global renewable energy market uses VRFB as a key energy storage medium and the advantages of grid balancing using this technology is realised. Bushveld have the largest high quality resource and when this is turned on and both mines are fully at production capacity the value hear will be more than ten times today’s market cap.
My long term view remains very strong and today’s share price is totally oversold and incredibly low considering the assets, the profits and the massive upside potential.
I hope this clarifies my position to any one having doubts. I don’t have any.
On a slightly amusing note, it is funny you should mention Zulu. Do remember the film and the moment with the bugle (brass trumpet with no valves)? What was it they said to him as he was about to try and blow it - 'spit man, spit!' Quite ironic given our LFD relies on saliva!
Movie time for me and Mrs RichKen.
Ok folks you have listed the risks. Let’s see a list of the key points which will bring huge success to this company. Just for the sack of balance.
I will leave this to you as I don’t want to be seen as to positive. :-))
So I am not filtered. :-)) FOMO.
So what did you think to first qualifying of the year. A subject we possibly have in common and we can share views without coming to blows! Hope you aren’t a Ferrari fan boy PL.
verstappen is the strong one if he can grind LH down.
So come Monday morning if we have no RNS given the subtle nature of a certain poster ‘just for kicks’ we can expect a downward movement. That is fine for me as I am ready for taking more advantages. At the same time we might get any number of news items which could give us a huge lift off.
I think these little signs show us who are playing spread bets and who are investors.
It always amazing how some people don’t really have any care how they treat others.
I am still focused on where we are heading and the potential over the next 6 to 8 weeks is likely to see some if the biggest gains in Avacta’s share price.