Member Info for redwineday

Not sure that is the answer. It's a tiddler in a small pool. It would be a single cell organism in the US.

Plain fact of the matter is they seem incapable of growing the business organically. That said in 2025 no more buy out and minimal cash based payments so cashflow should improve by c18m on same revenue and without factoring in cost savings.

With a following wind I would have thought they could re-start the buy backs next year. They need to.

PC

I just don't buy the Macro argument. Advertising market and digital advertising market in particular keeps growing. Even accepting advertising spend and spend on advertising agencies are 2 different things, for your revenue to be falling in that environment means you are not keeping up.

I think the lack of substantial new business wins, we can assume that they are not winning revenue at the same pace as they losing it, means their offer is not strong enough to convince new clients. Perhaps they are simply too small to generate network effects that larger clients demand. My worry is they are stuck in a negative loop of needing to cut costs whilst not having the resource or scale to win new business.

That interview was recorded at Cannes, that is last June. We are 2 profit warnings in since then. and the SP is 20% lower than it was then.

In a way it sums up perfectly the issue. He talks about his competitive advantage in AI but they are unable to covert it, at least so far, into sales. In fact it's the opposite as the revenue forecast has fallen.

Until he shows they are growing revenue and margins (we are a v long way from 20%) his valuation is pie in the sky. sorry to say but the SP will be held here by the shorters until that happens.

Seems a bit dated now....

I’ve been following ECO for more than years than I care to remember and Gil’s commentary has always suffered form over optimism in timelines. I think that’s why there is such a low turnover in trading. Rightly or wrongly PIs have learned that you cannot trust his timing forecasts.

I think he has learned this lesson though, maybe he acknowledges to himself it’s better to keep quiet than constantly being on Proactive talking about the next quarter.

Thanks for the explanation. Hopefully the RNS confirming the deal has completed will land soon.

Shudder to think what his travel ex's are..

Rationally it shouldn't - no?

Balance sheet should reduce assets and equity by the same amount. Mr Market may indeed decide differently

This plus a deal with Exxon, which has to worth 50p on its own. Both multi bagger possibilities. One can only dream our patience will be rewarded.

Good luck with that..

TBF to him he has a lot of skin in the game through his personal holdings, granted many of them free, however you cant argue that he has no incentive other than his salary.

And beaten back down by the hedgies. Watching endless repeats is so boring...

The lack of movement in the SP and minuscule volume says the market agrees with you.

IJWT

I suppose the Hess case matters if Exxon are interested and this can be why no announcement however your second argument in Eco drilling would mean no major is interested and if none of them are then it would be a highly risky venture for ECO do to it alone.

I can't find a credible reason to explain why Total would have walked away if they were convinced it was economic. This is the biggest doubt for me. I think TLW is easily explainable as in they didn't and don't have any money!

You would think. But the majors will have known all of this already.

As I see it there can be only 2 explanations for the lack of Guyana news,

1. No major after having looked at it wants to farm in. Eco are scrabbling for plan B

2. The deal is already agreed and there is a reason why it can't be announced.

I'm afraid I rather think the former. As I have said on those board before. Too many red flags and no white smoke.

Wording seems neutral in comparison to the usual jam tomorrow fare. Whether that is a good or bad thing I have no idea!

Wallact

Can you enlighten me? What deal? I must have missed it!

I think Orinduik is a goner. I hope I am wrong but there seem to be too many red flags.

Why hasn't Exxon done the obvious and farmed in? Hammerhead, Joe/Jethroe, tax write off etc. There seem to so many advantages to them to farm in, that fact they haven't done it already is a red flag. I think those that think Hess?Chevron arbitration is a blocker are wrong. Practically I don't see why that would stop them.

Secondly they are running out of time to drill. Wouldn't any potential interest wait and run down the clock for the licence to come back on the market?

Why would AOI sell out in a deal was imminent? They have effectively valued their stake in Orinduick via ECO at Zero.

Finally the lack of volume here says that there is nothing on the horizon. Eco has always been leaky. Seems to me, no volume means no nothing happening on the horizon.

1pencil

I didn't say there wasn't a correlation in the filings. Your highlighting of the Vanguard sell down is well received and useful so need to get the hump! However Vanguard are selling because the SP is falling and they have to rebalance. It's a circular process.

It seems to me that S4 is beset by 2 fundamental issues that need to be resolved. A lack of control shown in the accounting mess that started the slide here, coming on for 2 years ago and the subsequent missed revenue forecasts. It may be that the first is sorted but the second is clearly not. This is the CEO (and CFO) responsibility. Until they can demonstrate their forecasts are reliable then buying is a speculation on it might be alright now.

The second one is that his strategy was to focus on tech co's. This hasn't aged well. It might come back it might not. What is his diversification strategy? Difficult to imagine he can quickly pivot to FMCG or services. However what's worse is he has yet to articulate anything other than blah blah.

So at the current time I don't see this rebounding as revenue growth is down to external factors and until that changes the Sp is stuck. Maybe needs a new CEO to articulate a strategy other than waiting.

I also have to say the CFO gives me no confidence. She appears at the conference calls like an undertaker. Where is the spark? I also think there seem to be a lot of chiefs at S4. Certainly a lot for a company with a 250m market cap and revenue declining. Top heavy at best and a gravy train at worst. If I see these things then for sure II's and HF see it better than me..

1pencil

You are missing the biggest correlation. They are both run by egomaniacs. Sometimes this is a benefit as the organisations they lead are driven to meet the boss's demands and successfully but at other times people just get hacked off and demoralised as they realise the boss has lost the plot and what is demanded can't be done.

It seems to me that SMS lost the plot when he thought a deals were more important than laying the foundations of any good business such as accounting and control standards. Saying 1 unified P&L is different from doing it. My take is that in coming from CEO at a big company like WPP where these things just worked he forgot that they needed to be built from scratch and didn't have the right people to do it. The price is being paid now. I think that once this is done he can start to regrow the business organically and then in time return to his deal making.

I don't know much about THG but it appears to me that Moulding is also a narcissist, which is a whole different and worse bundle of problems!!

PC

Must be mild tiger. The HF's have heard he is a buyer....