Member Info for redwineday

nige

appreciate the sentiment however those numbers really prove my point.

consensus is that by 2028 they still won't be back at 2025 level, which itself was ****e. now, we can only hope that these analysts are wrong in the same way they were wrong when the sp was going up and indeed they don't need to be wrong by much, a 10 or 15% increase in revenue together with a continued margin expansion could transform the valuation. however my central point remains the same, whether its sp growth or client credibility, they need new whoppers or this ain't going nowhere and 6% yield isn't enough to attract attention.

Nige

Yes, the word "whopper" seems to have disappeared from the presentations.

I am of the mind that something needs to change at S4 before the SP can meaningfully progress or even get to a reasonable P/E or FCF valuation. The market isn't going to accept 6% yield as a reason to buy a small cap with no apparent route to growth. Although the divi yield is now attractive I think its circular in that without a big uplift in the market cap the dividend funds would be ruled out of buying.

I've been waiting for some sort of recovery for longer than I care to think about and despite averaging down I am still down a lot. However if I don't see any sign of revenue growth by the end of the year I'll take it on the chin and move on as without that, the SP is IMO unlikely to re-rate above the 40p ish level.

I don't understand why that havent' been more successful with non tech client new business wins, assuming they have been trying. The AI capex spend can run for many years given the cashflows of the hyperscalers, so continually blaming this seems like a cop out to me. If their product is good then one would have expected more new business than appears to be the case.

The govt were never going to give them a free pass following the expiry. This is them saying this is the price to play. Navitas would have known this before participation. AS JAT says. If it were over we would have know months ago. Must be entering the final stages of the negotiation.

I agree. Also I believe it doesn't mean competition for the block, it means the govt refuse the same terms so if they want to explore they have to agree to new terms.

Wallact,

Not given an extension on the existing terms is not the same as being kicked out. I think this would have been expected . The fiscal terms have changed for the non J&J part.

MM taking out the 50p stops. Seems to me no real weight of selling. As always patience required...

I would say this is the most likely explanation. There can be all sorts of stuff related to options or CFD’s going on that we can’t see. If you were a JHI shareholder you’d want to lock in the price you voted for that time of the deal.

Metrics here are becoming quite ridiculous. At closing have a dividend yield of 6.6% and a FCF yield of 33%. So the scribblers at MS think a company earring 1/3rd of its market cap in hard cash should be discounted at 12%? WTF are they smoking!

It's completely nuts!

completely illogical. wpp 3bn worth of debt and more than their market cap. 400m restructuring costs, divi slashed business in turmoil, new untested ceo. s4 the complete opposite in all regards. it would be far more honest if these analysts said the market price is x so we need to x +/- or we'll get *******ed for sticking our neck out by saying something useful.

wish i had gone to the right school qualifying me a for a job thats as easy as theirs.

Tiny volume. It's just noise really. Bored PI's being robbed by MM's. It was always thus.

Re Guyana

I'm wondering if the hold up could be the need to incorporate a third party into the negotiations. If they get approval or have a requirement to drill in the cretaceous, could it be they want or need to bring in a major as operator? A 2 or 3 well drill would cost c 80m per well. Not sure that Navitas would risk their balance sheet with all its other commitments to take this on, on their own. The fact that the discussions are taking so long says to me that this isn't about appraisal wells in the tertiary. If it were only that it would have been agreed weeks ago. So it looks to me like there is something bigger being worked on.

Pure speculation on my part of course but it would seem to be a logical speculation.

SP now at the same price as pre 2 farm ins (Namibia and Block 1). Retail PI's giving the MMs an opportunity to stock up pre the Guyana news dropping.

The yield is now sitting at over 5%. SP should be 60p based on this alone.

Seems that the shorts haven't cleared their positions fully.

"the sp will continue to drift till another announcement". This what AIM stocks do, no-one is investing here for dividends! If you are looking for this to double next week it isn't going to happen. The SP will be driven by the RX and ASP growth and maybe some news from China, thats it.

OTH if you have a 2 year horizon it might be a 4 or 5 bagger from here based on their ability to deliver the above. If they do make reasonable progress STX will not be around in 5 years or probably not even in 3. It will be bought out, most likely by Viatris before they have to pony up the volume related stage payments in late 27 or early 28. Why would they make these payments when they can buy the company, cancel the payments and have 100% of the revenue for no extra work and the Chinese royalties on top.

Further its not AOP's business model to be selling to "retail" in the US. They are rare disease specialists and one would imagine they are looking for an exit to allow then to pursue more pertinent opportunities.I think the question is at what price can AOP and Viatris do a deal at that satisfies both.

Let's see what happens as the year progresses. FWIW I predict they will continue to make progress, the SP will recover and as we move into next years the pressure will increase on Viatris to do a deal before it gets away form them or Shield add another drug to the stable that further increases the take out price further down the line.

You need to know what AOP's total invested capital has been then add on a premium. Difficult number to ascertain but I would have through 25-30p would do it.

And of course I should also say it might give another buying opportunity. We are not far from the pre Namibia farm in price and considering that deal and the Block 1 Farm in, any drop should be seen as a buy on the cheap.

On the face of it you are right however what we cant see is broker action on behalf of the JHI holders. I would imagine that now that the deal is done some of the JHI shareholders will be selling forward already. We are going to have a big overhang to clear. Hopefully Eco's brokers are looking for buyers with the capability to take on large blocks.

Really surprised to see STX back at these levels. Valuation makes no sense and a complete over reaction so after a few years away I'm back in here.

AOP are going to want their money back out so I fully expect STX to get taken out by Viatris once FCF is secured and Chinas royalties start flowing. Pocket change for them and saves them 30m in milestones.