@Wolster couldnt agree more - watching the evening TV is becoming increasingly difficult on an evening with the mobile next to you on Binance and there is nothing you can do anyway whatever happens!
I am trying to wean myself off it at the moment - cold turkey didnt work .....
Hmmm .... Interesting - I hadnt thought of it like that. It depends on your time horizon - those wanting a quick 30% / 40% want a BTC run to get there in a month. Those in for longer would benefit from what you say. As we now have cash reserves to pay the bills every month we should be able HODL almost all mined BTC.
The other element is that if BTC holds around this level and ZCASH goes on a run then we get more BTC for ZCASH mined as it is converted to BTC so that could also be a benefit.
AIG
I have seen that and was going to trade a portion of mine today (sell and rebuy) to accumulate but I bottled it. Will keep trying to pluck up the courage. It’s a way to accumulate 10% if you get it wrong but lose x% if you get it wrong.
Same happened on Friday.
Totally hypnotic at times. Makes watching the TV on an evening quite difficult if you have your phone next to you!
Looks like we are through most of the news that depresses the SP from the company (Warrants / Placing) and so now should be in open waters if BTC can now do its thing. I am going to be up at 7am sharp next Wednesday awaiting the operational update - most anticipated one so far this year (okay its only the second one!), one week of new machines may not have a major impact but I am keen to see if we HODL all the BTC mined and use cash reserves and what the mining efficiency will be.
Weekends are more interesting being invested in Crypto. BTC above Friday close at moment so I think we could see open about 85. Retrace to 79/80 and then build back up to 85/90 with US market open into close unless BTC falls back below 31.5.
That’s my guess, unless we get a surprise RNS, then who knows!
Amanesia - held off as long as I can.
Dont let him / her get under your skin, you will notice they never reply. It is relentless and was amusing a couple of weeks ago but now .... oh my .....
Confidence in the holding - Zengah cannot impact the SP and I am sure no one would ever buy / sell based on anything said if they just read a days worth of posts
There is a key difference between UK and US though isn't there.
In December UK had 300m shares held at c.10p, that was never the case in US, went on a run straight away and I believe hit $1.99 and had a steady day at $1.82 before the exchange went down.
So movement from the UK to US or UK to UK is to be expected - thats a lot of shares to change hands in less than a month at a net level (some will change hands multiple times) and so there will be more selling in the UK on the current drop if they see there 10p 10 bagger eroding to a 7 bagger in three days. Not everyone is on LSE and the profits will be a lot to see bleeding.
So panic can become self fulfilling in some respects for those holders.
The silver lining is that based on the volumes a lot of those loose hands will dissappear soon and so we should be left to move on up as we also have a large cohort of holders at 90p plus.
Institution buying 22m at 80p is a signal enough for anyone worried - they are not here for 10% .
So £2 in Jan is probably off (we nearly rocketted there :-) ) but it isnt off - but when..... lets get the machines running before our competitors and see where BTC goes so we can increase our HODL.
I am in ARB (Jan 4th) and KR1 (18th Jan) and these are my only two Crypto stocks and I think they both have legs for different reasons and no reason to play them off - two different business models and they both will have upsides / downsides. I think ARB will prosper more short term with rise in BTC and increased mining and it should settle much quicker - the US listing has helped the SP but I am not sure the straight to margin increase in BTC has been fully recognised - appointments in US will help with investors but the recent dilution (including placement) does mean there has been some selling that has retraced the price - I always intended to hold to March results once all mining rigs up and running and to see where BTC was and nothing has changed that.
On KR1, whilst the assets it holds currently outweigh MCAP and it has (I believe) 5.1m per annum income it feels really undervalued. So whilst the BoD have an eye for investment in crypto and have made some stellar calls, the current calls will take years potentially to mature. What I am struggling with on KR1 is the shareholder value generation strategy - why not move to a more accessible listing, potentially liquidate some crypto to pay a small dividend (£13m would pay a 10p dividend for less than a 20% liquidation I think and that is high as a dividend) - in short I dont see the action currently to increase shareholder value (that is increase the SP) as the market can only react if they are known about and the stock is accessible. My understanding is that they are holding shares as salary (I may have misread that) and if so this is in their interests also so that bit does puzzle me.
I think ARB is straightforward now - BTC price, mine and be the most efficient and generate revenue but KR1 is a more interesting investment vehicle - I just need to square in my head how the returns happen from where we are now - what will actually push the SP on - if Polkadot doubled and the BoD liquidated some and reinvested the SP doesnt climb without a stimulus that allows more buying - any comments welcome!
Botak
Very new here (this week) and can see the value, as it is AQUIS (which is new to me) I am not totally sure of the reporting etc... and have read everything I can find thus far. The move of ARB to OTCPNK in US certainly helped there in the last month. Has the BoD indicated whether there is any intention to dual list in US and / or look to move to AIM (or an equivalent) to provide more access. Luckily I am with EQI and it is easily available so have taken a position at the moment but wondering if you could point to any collateral with plans towards listing an alternative markets.
Zen - keep up the positivity ! Possibly every message on the board today will be positive - makes a change from the week and Mr Gibbons
I think a BTC consolidation at $37k to $39k has been good and if it can hold I can see $40k next week, not sure about $45k. The fact we havent suffered a massive retrace and there was quite a hard bounce of $30k was positive.
I am now resolved that my next excitement will be the next operational update based on the new BTC level.
As it has been a quiet night I have just tried to do some maths – would be grateful for feedback as to what is fundamentally missing but I am hazarding where we may get to this month and then would welcome feedback as to whether the market has made this assessment and it is priced in or they just don’t get it. I am almost ignoring peers as it is easy to get carried away with a value based on that sometimes.
I am assuming ZCASH increase has no effect as ZCASH in %age terms has increased less than BTC since end of December – as all ZCASH is converted to BTC I am assume a flat conversion in my reasoning which either way can be sensitized with the other variables.
So in December 96 BTC mined at a revenue of £1.63m and at 60% margin.
40% of 1.63m is £652k which should be fairly fixed operating costs.
Leaves £978k profit banked.
Assumptions for January:
BTC mined : 100 (conservative with a week of the additional machines?)
BTC price : £26k (equates to $35k so again conservative)
Total revenue : £2,600k – Fixed costs of £652k
Margin of £1.948k (75%)
So in one month due to BTC an additional £1m profit banked.
This before new machines in Feb. and doesn’t take in to account any further BTC rises beyond $35k (currently $39k)
How do you then value this - do we think this is priced into current SP?
Feedback welcome to distract us from a minute by minute BTC price update and happy to be told the workings are too simple!
Smiler - are you stalking my strategy! I was all out week last Monday to go in here to think I would get back in EUA before sale and accepting i may miss DFS RNS - not missed either yet and now looks months away due to holding RNS so timing could be on our side.
If not - so what - I think this could bring better returns anyway.
So there was a bit of a cloud at 4:30 today due to no rockets but what about the aftershow.
US closes at $1.62
BTC currently above $37k
Great part of Q&A from a personable and charismatic CEO - other CEOs should take lessons.
To wrap it off - just seen ZCASH over $120
See you all tomorrow!
Albert - get that but spending a long time trying to figure it out never seems to get any agreement or actually achieve anything. The SP is where it is as a result of all the factors that drives a client to sell or request a buy. It wont matter when BTC gets to $42k+ again and the new machines are on line - a lot of the current people may not need to figure it out and may just decide they have made enough and can move on to have the same debate on another share!
I never really understand this conversation of buys v sells.
Its a trade isn't it - passing from one hand to another at a price - so the person that has just bought it now holds it to make a profit (or not) and the one that has sold it has cashed out.
If people are continuously trying to sell, isn't that where a SP falls as the market has too much supply, and it goes up where the market needs to generate supply for anyone wanting to buy. If the MMs have enough shares and want no further exposure they stop buying and the SP falls to generate a selling demand for them. Surely that's the basics.
I do see an awful lot of arguments about this (amongst other things) - the share has just changed hands for a price hasnt it?
Anyway US up $0.10 since, we closed. BTC just breached $36k - hopefully it can hold and go on overnight and 8am will put a smile back on most Argonauts faces (except that Gibbins guy - he has sold apparently!)
Let's admit - we all expected some reaction - not because we really were going to sell at 14:30 (were we!) just some excitement.
Well ZCASH now over $115 - will that do for today?
Log off - watch the US rise into the night and fall back before the close, go to bed and wake up hoping BTC is still above $34k and I will see you all tomorrow :-)