Member Info for raharh

Well that is left field !!

This isn’t a raise. It is the shares from 28 April. Already known and priced in. Cash flow to September looks secure. Rig sale in July will extend that out to 2027 as well as any solar sale.

I do not see another raise this year and hope I do y regret that opinion!

A settlement would come with an agreed payment plan with initial cash whereas a judgement will get tied in knots in litigation to get the cash which is why I would take a settlement over a judgement.

Whatever way anyone spins this. Ajax has acquired 25% of the company for peanuts. Sorry, ACs sons company has acquired 25% of the company for peanuts.

They are a speculative exploration company startup. Hardly brings operational cadence. MCAP 9m, this will help them far more than any value they will bring or there 200k.

Should have asked shareholders. Sure there would have been a cohort willing to stump up 200k for 25% 🤣

All I would say is that there is ZERO benefit to Zenith Shareholders of giving 25% of the Uranium potential to ACs son's company for £200,000. It isnt sat inside Ajax, Ajax just own 25%. We should have put the £400,000 in and then left it ready for IPO issuing the other 50% shares to the market and retaining 50%. The Ajax involvement makes no sense to anyone but the Cattaneo family. That is not in the interest of shareholders which the CEO has a responsibility to.

I am still sitting on my hands seeing how ICSID develops but for me that is the only play now, Solar is just fields that need funding, the only way to fund is to raise or sell some of the fields off. Even the IPO of the uranium wont help that as it wont be Zeniths money to use across its portfolio - it is ringfenced - so I am now even questioning why spin it out. We have oil (according to the Tunisians!), Gas, Solar and potentially Uranium - that is a diversified energy company.

Sorry - just dont agree Ajmalkhuram that this is in any way positive but that is what these boards are for - we all have our own views and I hope in six months we are clinking glasses together with a positive ICSID outcome.

My reading is that they are valuing the spin out at £800,000. so 75% given away, 50% for IPO and we will be offered a chance to participate (or maybe not)

25% to Zenith and 25% to Ajax. Not sure if anyone has noticed it but the CEO of Ajax is the son of AC......

They both get 25% and then at IPO Zenith get back £350,000 that they have invested thus far in shares. So, £200,000 of the £3million raise has gone to this. On IPO there is no benefit to shareholders other than we own 25% + whatever £350,000 buys us in shares with no income and no additional shares in the separate vehicle.

Benefit - we dont have to spend anymore on the Uranium spin out as self contained

Detriiment - I dont really see how this is a good deal - why did they need to get Ajax involved - why not put the £400k in ourselves, oh wait, the clue might be in the surnames ..

Trying to stay positive but this week has not been great in my book.

That is an interesting development and probably refers to the feedback from the hearings and the confidence in Tunisia so adds more confidence to the success. Ignoring the story, the fact the minister has gone is telling and as long as we are not relating things that have no connection (which I think is doubtful) then possibly Tunisia will be minded to talk to Charles Michel about a settlement.

Personally I would prefer a settlement, if we could get 50% and re-open the two concessions they now concede we own that would be a better result in my mind as a settlement will come with cash on settlement and possibly a payment plan - but all agreed - and no more share issuance. If its a judgement then you have the whole mess of enforcement.

I was annoyed yesterday at the lack of PI participation but then reflected - forgetting history, which is the past - it was a 1.6% discount and so might as well buy from the open market rather than participate if that was the intention. Just want to get ICSID sorted before anymore shares are issued.

But .... I would love Uranium to be sorted before the settlement, otherwise that value add may get lost in the weeds. Get Uranium sorted then settlement would be my ideal scenario I think.

AC has ramped up interviews in the last week or so telling everyone how great the future is, the problem is that the future is always next month, next year etc.. and I share the frustration with this raise. I wrote to Zenith earlier in the year expressing my frustration that PIs were not allowed to participate in the raise and got a bland respond saying they took that comment on board and would consider it. The RNS answered the question, we will just go to institutions and allow AC to maintain / increase shareholdings. AC has also been explaining how they have a lot of interest in the portfolio to sell some on, again not coming to fruition (including the restart of gas production and sale of a rig - items that seem to never get updated on in his interviews).

I do not see Tunisia settling any time soon (if at all) as they will be trying to understand their position and post hearing submissions, lets see if we get a result on the annulment and uranium - they would be near term catalysts in my opinion - solar is just a little 'meh' at the moment, buying up land pre-permit and no funds to build.

It is a difficult situation - at the end of the day, the SP has the potential to be 5x to 10x the current SP before then end of the year even based on a partial award and there is value in the Uranium spin off if it is so whilst I think the ICSID case has a better than 50% chance of success which should give a return for all PIs and there is value elsewhere it is just leaving a bad taste in the mouth that this raise has come two months before AC said it would be needed.

I am holding still as I see the potential, even if that potential has been diluted today, how many PIs feel slightly trapped I wonder as selling is an immediate thought process when companies go down this road but with the potential here most are holding on.

Time will tell - GLA

PAUL1DEANO

I am hoping that is a Tunisian quote!

Be honest - who flinches every time you see an RNS notification :-)

5MWP solar acquisition - no news really at the moment - or at least not the news we really want to see.

Staying strong!

As Tunisia declared ownership of two sites to Zenith and that they were looking after the 4000 barrels of oil the stay would have allowed Zenith to verify the oil (and sell it) and also assess the damage and even get the sites operational in the six month period without interference (or at least if there was this would not be good for Tunisia) and so would have allowed a clearer path to what damages would be right.

Tunisia fighting this means they will probably argue they have the oil and sites with Zenith being able to verify such and take that item out of any award. I assume Tunisia would not want that verification and will just want ICSID in good faith to accept the detail.

It is all games, but they are high stakes games!

When I saw the RNS yesterday I was trying to work out why that would happen now and my first thought was that the defense would be 'Nothing to see here, no case to answer, they own the assets' and then I reflected and thought that this does not cater for the years of lost revenue opportunity and the damage to site.

Doing some digging last night (admittedly on Copilot) there are parallels. The case was about ownership, breach of treaty and quantum of reward if all proved. The ownership issue, which was going to be highly contested has now been removed. In terms of breach of treaty there is another twist. As the site is vandalised and Tunisia stating Zenith own the sites then they are bound by BIT for "Full Protection and Security" which means there may be damages to re-instate the site.

It feels like there may be an argument on lost revenue and repair of site and then return to Zen for production rather than loss of all asset - it will definately be an interesting argument they will have (if it gets there) but very strange this close.

I also do not know what this means for the ICC2 annulment proceedings.

Interesting times for sure!

ICSID result wont be know until later in the year - if there is a win then it will depend on the amount.

A win doesn't mean payment, so the SP might react to ~60% of the value of the award (+nuclear +solar etc...) but who really knows.

Currently the SP is only really reflective of the solar portfolio - if ICC2 is annulled where a decision is any time between now and of June looking at timescales that will certainly get a reaction as it will be perceived as favouring Zen - it isn't it is just annulling a bias decision.

Final submissions on ICSID 20th April - so they have until then to make a deal but on form I dont expect one.

We tend to catch them up over a few days which is all good as people arbitrage.

I think we could break 15p without annulment due to the following:

Uranium added since decision

Solar portfolio added since decision

Restart of gas (minor and insignificant but worth 0.2p :-) )

No defense to annulment except - 'We want it to be in a Tunisian court'

Charles Michel added to team

All these are post and so if we get the annulment we could be 20p+ - who knows!

Final point - I hope we can keep this board as it is and proper civil debate and info, we managed it post the ICC2 decision so lets keep it going like that. I am shocked that the rise in the last two weeks has not increased some of the usual traffic - but this is one of the best boards I have been on.

If anyone new joins and wants a quick rundown there are some excellent papers out there that will bring you up to date - just ask.

GarethUK - I think that the old news was that he joined Clay Arbitration. This is just news that he is now working on ZENs case.

That is my reading.

Remember - this is the valuation of the Solar Development Pipeline.

It excludes the Uranium and Arbitration Claims.

GLA!

There are multiple options - apart from the obvious arbitration settlements.

They could progress some sites to RTB status and sell those off as was the plan to fund building the sites they want to retain.

There will be revenue and profit from Gas and Solar when built

The Nuclear spin off could come and generate revenue

There is always a prospect of needing some cash - but people shouldnt just get excited about a raise being needed everytime a company needs to invest.

Zen has a number of levers to pull this year. In December we will be in a very different place if just one of the three strategies crystalise - if they all do there will be a lot of happy people on this BB. If none crystalise we will be around where we are now IMO so I struggle to see the downside and we just need to let the company do their thing.

They are very communicative and very clear on the strategy and if you listen to each interview you will see that AC is unwavering the strategy which can deliver multiple upsides and they are not changing strategy on a whim.

I think Zen have a very well thought out strategy - the one thing that will kill investors is impatience - 9 months to the end of the year and we would expect a few RNSs between then and now!

I did expect a little pull back after last week as it may be traded as it trends back up but it seems to be strong now and people are back to pre-ICC2 judgement and there is more that has been added since then (Uranium and more solar).

I am part of the crew that have stuck it out through the ICC2 judgement and still hold as I think the business itself has merits in solar (and now uranium) and the arbitrations feel like they are getting stronger. I committed to myself last year I would ride out ICC2 and ICSID this year to see what would happen and havent changed my view - more emboldened in fact.

32.7m traded in Oslo already today ... and back to 1 NOK

For those new I am just going to bump this up for you to catch up as it is an excellent summary - then read the last RNS about the lack of defense from Tunisia on the annulment proceedings. This is why we are seeing a run up - last time it ran to 17.5p in anticipation but I cannot triangulate where that will go to due to addition of Nuclear, increase in solar, what seems like a strong annulment case with no objections and final submission on ICSID due within weeks.

I have to think higher than the 17.5p and whilst the current rises look high percentage wise on a daily basis it just seems to be the continued pressure of people who know returning to load up.

https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/zenith-energy - shame I cannot pin this !

Another good start to the week - seems as though sentiment is flooding back with the new appointment and the strange tactics of Tunisia on the ICC2 annulment submission.

looks like that buy order at 4.5 might not get filled this week!

It looks like ICC2 annulment is more likely than not and therefore people who followed up to July are probably re-taking positions when it climbed to 17.5p in anticipation of the decision. In addition, the rise will put it on the radar of new investors and so that may be another cohort who may look to get involved.

All in all it is starting to look very positive from my perspective.

What is difference since July decision?

Solar portfolio has increased dramatically

Nuclear spin off is now on the table pending environmental reports - I am bullish on this - energy security is becoming an economic necessity

Tunisia has illegally sold more of ZEN oil whilst in legal proceedings when ICC1 declared that illegal (?!?!?)

Share dilution - this is the one negative with the raises

I can see a run up possibly past the 17.5p now as the latest update shows Tunisia are not actually fighting the annulment and are just trying to frustrate the legal proceedings.

On ICSID - ICC2 judgement was included - it is going to be odd how this is viewed if (1) the annulment is undecided during the ICSID period or (2) it is annulled - surely at that point the ICC2 judgement must be disregarded as part of the ICSID judgement in that case.

The timing of events over the next 3 - 4 months will be very interesting I think.

For anyone joining the board new, there is an excellent article (early Feb) on the history here:

https://thatstocksguy.substack.com/p/zenith-energy