Member Info for ragtrade

@Danl90 Again i'll ignore the patronising s**t but suffice to say it's a young company, growth, its what's expected and those expectations of BH are currently very high, it's very easy to compare against a older company and i think the Asos ROCE is in line with industry average and the markets expectations for a company of this age but i'll leave that one to you.

So you are selling circa £5.00 which maybe given the hype might not be too many months away.
Why?

ignore last paragraph , its the remnants of deletion , i was going to write a two page rant but then couldn't be arsed.

Danl90 Quotes
@rag you need to sell this share as you don't understand it
We are actually being sued for this in the US - it's pretty material so you should have been aware really
I'll point the **** out that you spout because i think you must be blind to it and i really can't bothered to hold your hand and walk you through the rest if the crap.

One question i have for you, if you can answer without being such an ******** is that if, our Boo, your Boo, us Boo , my Boo is so incredibly good at what it does is why you i believe have ear marked £5 as a sell for you to bail personally?

OMG no i wasn't aware
patronising again, mark down model is flawed and cannot continue,

@P agree rag is not in this group. But he will die on his sword before anyone bad mouths asos (three profit warnings, no growth in own brand and lower margins) but how dare I compare boo as being better

I own a lot of BH shares, i do not trade in any other sector other than Fashion. I owned Asos shares and sold last time they breached £50. BH is great at what they do, Asos are also great at what they do. I supply both. I look at both business's with a rounded view, Asos has issues but they are a very mature company so what company doesn't, what they do have is an extremely wide appeal which is a massive strength as it bides time to address the issues which they are doing, distribution continues to be a problem. BH is the here and now, in S/Y it is sitting pretty but i see pressures building from being a young up start to a more refined version of itself, the issues are growing but they are good issues of a company thats maturing but it has to be careful that it doesn't compete with itself on its main two brands and in the longer term it must widen it's appeal , it wont do this with the London Brands to the extent it needs to, if the GG and Alpha look starts to drop off then in this game you can lose it very quickly and the journey back is long and arduous, if PLT was PLT and BH was more akin to Zara i'd be much more relaxed about it's L/T prospects. As for comparing BH/PLT to Asos, please why even bother, altho now thinking about it Dan90 may have been talking about the models, i'll go check see.

Danl90
Where is the boo stuff today? on the website or sold

It's on line ALL marked down, Womans BH 451 lines, PLT 567 lines, Mens BH 323 lines inc awful hoodys, every piece on promo.
Where is the asos stuff today? still in a warehouse
Errrr it's on line, what do you need???
Womans Asos 4505 -863 lines with minimal mark down
Mens Asos 4505 -380 lines with minimal mark down
Total offer 3656 lines across mens and womans.

Why do you keep saying it's in the warehouse , what does that even mean, Asos 4505 is on line, back up stock in DC, new drops on water, further drops in production to be shipped and on going development every bloody day of the week, its what buyers and designers are paid to do, i thought you had a u/s of the way this business worked???
Asos have had like everyone a continual lines on 4505 for 12 months of the year since 2018?? drops come in all the time these are programs that are placed every month when OTB opens up based on what's selling, really making way to big a deal out of a bit of black writing on Karrueche that says latest drop, in fact the latest drops are going straight into markdown with 61 styles on promo, no one will ever pay BH full price, it's a flaw and one that they are having to wrestle with and this is in part due to having to re source, it's being felt on the buying floors, new structures and old ways out the window.
All other points you are trying to drag us into an old discussion away from your point about BH/PLT being the activewear online Gods.

You point was
I think Boo & PLT have nailed the third but very risky third lockdown by getting activewear out sooner (pre and over christmas) and the both seem to have sold like hot cakes
You may be partial to their wears but it's your opinion and no not sooner, everyone had has and will have an offer, it basic basic buying not just for this time of year but very bloody week of the year.

Your other point
all that was factored in PLT's gymwear was available to buy from mid-Dec the Karreuche drop a week or so later. You could hold it in you hands over NYE. Boo's launched on 29th Dec you could hold it in your hands on NYE. You just said you have orders to manufacture Asos's 4505 range. Well that is behind you don't have to work in the industry to see that. I went on Asos website and there is no new gym range. Our's has been out for getting on two weeks and is almost sold out! Asos's is still being made.

Yawn, i refer RHG to my previous answer.

Danl90 Whilst i admire your adoration of BH/PLT Activewear ranges they have not had some miraculous insight into it ahead of the whole industry, Asos haven't just had a lightbulb moment, no retailers, e-tailers are just planning this, it's been on everyone's radar from when Gym Shark started to be noticed around 2017 as a contender to compete against casualwear.
You are starting to do to me again what you do to so many on here, PATRONISE, you clearly have an insight into finance which i respect you for but please do not for one minute try and use analytic thinking in fashion, perhaps you need to look at the way you are thinking (over), i'm telling you how it is, don't be so blinkered and dismiss and patronise it just because it goes against your thinking, again a bad trait you have. These ranges are on going they are never one offs, you will see drops of newness and promos through out the season and clearance of stock before they come in, its well honed to suit their drops and social media and press campaigns. BH may have not bought in enough stock, worst thing in this game is not to have enough of a winning line of enough sizes, especially given the source and CNY. Asos and BH as we have discussed have different audiences, Asos sells 3 to 5 times more than BH, both have a place but your absolute blinkered belief that BH is some sort of company with a crystal ball into the World of fashion is wrong and i think a chink in your analyses, everyone and there Aunty has Activewear, Asos 4505 was launched in SS18 for both men and woman to much a claim and has just had it's most successful year to date. You cannot make a statement of knowledge like you have by just flicking through on line pages, you wouldn't expect anyone making a statement on EPS or KPI's this way without having some back ground knowledge as to what they are actually talking about, so take on board from someone who has an in depth u/s in the same way that you expect someone to take on board what you say re share earnings, kpi's etc etc etc rather than patronising.

dan90 - BH activewear comes from China, i know the factory, this cannot be made in UK, the fabrics and cmt are too tricky, at best lead time will be 60 but more like 90 days ex if fabric is on the floor, Asos aren't behind this, they are bang on message to their wide audience, qtys 3000pcs upwards of a line, BH qtys are also good in this area 1000pcs, which is big for them, but they have to place larger as the trial quick repeat strat doesn't work for them on this product due to longer sourcing lead time, CNY is an always an issue in this trade and about to loom large. Given that most retailers are reporting good earnings over Christmas for online trade i think we all have high expectations of BH and PLT, so it's good to hear that investors are not expecting much form the London Brands. Asos will of course be the acid test, BH i will be benchmarked against recent Xmas sales updates and Asos. I really do hope it is right at the higher end and fingers tightly crossed beyond otherwise it will be a long hard slog for BH shares till Y/E.

Just to add into the mix 4 days after trading update we may hear news from Deloitte's on the 18/01 re Arcadia bids, i guess issue is if BH are favourable will it be good for S/T px, if not favourable again will it effect price S/T, how much if anything is baked in for them being successful in some way in purchasing some of the Brands, all very tricky if your in it for S/T.

@Danl90 Casualwear and Activewear was always going to be key for trans/ss21, however even more so now, very large %'s of our orders are in activewear, this includes Asos 4505 range and of course casualwear will remain key through to March at least, for BH concern will be for KM, WH and Oasis, whilst they have a smattering of loungewear it's pretty limited, it will not be the easiest of periods for the London Brands they are not a natural default for activewear or casualwear, currently they have very little "new in" to feed this lockdown demand which is not great, the first 6 months of this year will be a big challenge for them, however i'm pretty sure if vaccinations go to plan then we can expect a strong resurgence going into AW21.

FFS , oh the irony, anyone else getting the ****ty Shein Ad on the this board page, nothing about returns in the ad tho!!!

Midway, Strong Finish, yep, be nice to see this finish off above £3.60 and keep pushing on to results day, for once it's starting to feel that there is belief that BH has put in strong Xmas performance and it's starting to be baked in a bit and confidence about any issues are at the mo at least in the past.

Did laugh at the strong finish tho, thought for one moment you were tongue in cheek and meant the board and recent post!

TCM , mirror shot, nice

TCM , bloody hell, this is a par 3 and you've gone straight into the rough!!!

@dan90 , i do have concerns about BH appeal, it's limited and a very specific audience, the London Brands they have bought are a great but were never massive and are a bit too niche for any massive growth, TS/TM is recognised World over not least in States, these brands work on so many levels, they do casualwear and going out very well, they also do formalwear in depth especially TM , which has been dire due to CV but will bounce back really strongly due to pent up demand later this year (high margin product) they do footwear and leisurewear extremely successfully. I work with BH and TS/TM and buying teams could not be more different, the latter having to be much more structured due to the size of each department.

For the record, once again, Topshop/Topman is not a mess as i have read on here, its the goose that laid the Golden Eggs, issue was the owner stopped feeding it, Topshop/Topman sell alone millions of jeans a year , qtys that Boo Hoo can only dream of. I'm in on Boo Hoo till Spring and will re assess position then, if if if they pull off TS/Tm for circa 200m i'm in for at least a year and beyond, i cannot stress how quickly they will start creating revenue, TS/TM have a state of the art new DC and all buying teams and good management structures still in place, they have SS21 booked and ready to go. People on here banging on about age groups its not just about age, its the choice that BH offers , TS/TM 's demo is still young, TS is selling flares and TM is selling wide leg crop Chinos , it's no basket case, what TS/TM could become for them is a whole new customer base that hates BH and it's flexing and this new base for them is predominately in the South of England and also Student based, it's not Glam Girl or Alpha Guy who they loathe. To me whoever gets these Brands and sticks some decent marketing behind them is going to be a real threat to the current status quo, if BH pull this off then they are ticking all the boxes of Gen Z and beyond, towny, chavvy, indie, uni, glam even the urban outfitters shabby chic brigade they can nail the Youth market from top to bottom, BH orders 300pcs of line, TS can sell 5000pcs of one style and that's on line only, the numbers for BH group will stack up very very very quickly, this will impact the share price very rapidly, with TS/TM on board i honestly believe they could be pushing towards 2 Bn t/o in the space of next 12 months.

@ dan apologies shocking spelling working off phone, i concur, just think we have different ways of getting to same conclusion.

@ dan , all noted. I leave and breath this industry, i have indepth understanding of how you making money in it and why companies lose money and go out of fashion, many times its because owners who started it sell up to P/E , it then becomes run by accoutants who either strip the hell out of it and ride off into sunset (Debenhams) leaving carnage in its wake or try add more value somehow by scaling it and then float, ultimately anythung run by accountants fails, jack wills, superdry etc etc etc rinse repeat , once the business man who started it with a passion goes so does normal the back story of the brand. I think JL can carry the baton tho and he will take it in direction that makes money and that he sees adds to bottomline. I only invest in shares in this industry , nothing else and i only do it when i see an opportunity which i judge by my knowledge of past , present and future, great exampke is Jack Wills and Suoerdry, whilst city saw value i saw Mums and Dads in Cornwall wearing it, they saw growth i saw it as killing the brand from whence it came from. We know what happned to the once iconic JW and i saw it coming from a 100 miles back, Julian D back at helm of SD but once youve dragged a brand thru the dirt in this game the hard yards back are long and ardueous, equity storys in this game are a mere gamble , is it baked in, is it not baked in, x25, x35, x56 , alll a gamble by people who think they know the answers. All i know is tge workinfs of fashion industry and sometimez if its worth a punt and old chat but BH def was and still is.

@ dan , apparently 80 people give or take so not far off. Tbh i dont know one company in fashion industry that wasnt a firesale, its why BH picked up the brands they did, all eventually end up this way, if i racked my brains i maybe able to come up with one but firesales got list as long as my arm, its fashion its **** or bust , im sure other industries diff but in this biz , here today gone tomorrow, its brutal.

@dan yeah clearly at odds on this equity story and how you position it. Im a trader and a business man, all my life companies i have worked with in fashion industry that have been successful have been so bevause they had a clear message that attracted succient numbers of people to ensure they sold good volumes at good margins and made sizeable profit. Equity story and positioning, way above my pay grade, sounds like a whole new World thats even if i knew what it meant, looks like good ole days of right message, right product, right margin = right bottomline are long gone, time for Carol Kane to retire and let accoutants take over, unless of course we are speaking same language but if we are then id never know.

@ danl90 perhaps not odd but normally admins oversea a fire sale this goes to show how much value and confidence admins are putting in the brand and this is my point, desperate for BH to nail this but for me its looking unlikely because of way Admins are handling , i hope im wrong PWC took how long with lehman s, think its still ongoing !! Of course this will be over and done by mid Jan when i will finely be put out of my misery for many reasons.