Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Buying more losses? I've had my eye on this one for a while, done quite a bit of research, still not 100% sure at this price. Got any tips. MCap doesn't seem unreasonable for the concept that it offers

Hey Maksym, thanks for posting. Been in and out of this one for a couple of years now and the recent sell off has been one of the most savage I've seen with no obvious reason. What am I missing? It looks like it was triggered by the earnings release and since then has been hit by the whammy of falling iron ore spot prices and the 10% increase in UAH over the last 2 months. Costs and volume off but I didn't think that there was anything unexpected. At sub 4x EV/EBITDA and not far from being debt free this is starting to look compelling, but who is brave enough to catch this falling knife?

My theory is there's been a seller in the background for a couple of weeks now offloading large chunks but I think there has also been a buyer holding this up. Looks like the buying has stopped but the selling continued and in fact sped up. PIs getting nervous as a result and taking tax free profits in the new tax year. Today's drop means that the forecast divi in 2 years time is close to 10%. But that's a long time to wait isn't it? And it's been an awful week for the basket. On the good news is the rand is finally starting to tank. And I think the market is underestimating the cost saving benefits of Echo.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180406/pdf/43t0g0nxjzf5qq.pdf

Its an execution only platform, why would they inform you of anything? You get what you pay for - they literally don't do anything for you except facilitating your buying, holding and selling of shares. Its a huge amount pf paperwork getting this done, it takes time. You should learn your lesson from this and sell your shares prior to the offer closing if you're worried about admin hold ups. But it sounds like your shares being locked away for a while may be the best thing for you

Looks like the shorts covered up in that huge spike in volume on Friday, down to 7% - not sure what happened in all the funny business but 80m shares changed hands. Perhaps some institutions hedging their holdings in or speculating on iLadbrokes and GVC with the potential FOBT cut? Whatever the reason they didn't make any money, even in this falling market. GVC not even down 5% from its peak

Check out Hastings Technology Metals (ASX: HAL) They have a magnet metals rich project in Aus with production kicking off in 2020. Market cap of $A200m (�110m), 3x RBW. They recently signed an offtake with Thyssen... starting to sounds familiar? Some key differences here are: location of the mine, they have a JORC supporting production of 15ktpa for 8 years and they are constructing a metallurgy plant, which increases the price paid by customers but will cost them over $300m to construct. They have been steadily increasing their JORC resource over the last year. And the SP has been steadily multi-bagging. If RBW makes a big find in Burundi its future will look something like Hastings. What are the chances of building a processing plant that like in Burundi? What happens next if RBW strikes what could be the beginning of a big fat target over the next month? https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180315/pdf/43sghnvmwgnlj8.pdf

The consideration is made up of 3 components, shares, cash and some kind of note contingent on the outcome of the Triennial review. If you did not make an election to receive either cash or shares you will receive the default offer consideration, which I believe is a mix of cash and GVC shares. Either way you should receive your cash/shares this week and the contingent element when the FOBT outcome is decided.

I think so too Shakey. I can sell �25k at 18.72 but can't buy anything at less than full ask.

I think the next development platform for Barberton is in 2019. No idea how much this will cost but probably impacting net debt. Its a bit difficult to piece everything together with this one but I think capital raise in next 6 months is 50/50, if Rand strengthens any further or PoG falls, chances will increase exponentially

Hey Visitor, the latest presentation gives a net debt forecast out until 2019. Its not pretty. Net debt is increasing until the end of this year and only starts decreasing in 2019 despite the cash flow from Elikhulu. The peak is double current levels of R1.6bn/$135m which only gives them $30m headroom. I think the last thing they need is to go and develop another project with such elevated debt levels.

So I see that GVC has become the most shorted stock on the FTSE with 15%. I've had these puppies back since the AIM days and Kenny always delivers. I'm looking to forward to seeing him make them squirm. Ifonly your Ladbrokes shares will probably have disappeared today and you will shortly receive some shiny new GVC shares and cash in your account instead. I use IG, they are pretty good, nothing to worry about https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/IM00B5VQMV65/

How about this Sir: mining and processing issues, ageing underground mines, falling grades, SA govt threatening to take more ownership, negative perception of SA, repeated and constant threat of industrial action, strengthening rand/weaker dollar, strengthening pound, project development risk... etc etc As a result of all the above, over the last few years costs have spiralled out of control, cash flow is negative and net debt/EBITDA has risen to 3x, despite the high gold price. There isn't much headroom on net debt and I would say that there is an imminent threat of a capital raise. Without which it will take them years to unwind this debt and start paying decent dividends. Despite all this and my heavy losses I'm about to start my due diligence round 2, trying to decide if I go all in. With a SP at 5 year lows and some kind of crazy low P/E multiple, a very large reserve and resource base with one of the lowest EV/reserves around it seems there is already lot of bad news priced into this. Can management turn it around? Should we expected another capital raising? Or is it a case of turning into another heavily indebted gold miner with big projects and dreams like POG? If you have the balls to get in and the patience to wait until 2020 this is exactly the kind of leveraged play that can perform really well. Fixing their production issues, controlling costs better and successfully getting the projects started will go along way in the meantime

Must have been those 25 shares for �4.75 which pushed up the price this morning... Looks like LSE haven't reset their clocks, can see trades at 7am this morning

I would prefer a lot of people over Mike Ashley but SD has deep pockets and beggars cant be choosers. I can't see anything so far that would suggest he is a hugely successful investor, Goals Soccer, Debenhams, although he bought Game at the bottom

Yeah totally agree facester. It's a patient gamble on management's ability to execute Belong. The market scepticism is reflected in the SP discount discount to net tangible asset value, and the ,measly �3.2m they received for 50% of Belong. But maybe they decided they really needed the SD strategic alliance for further funding, floor space, cuddles etc Like most I'm bearish on the retail side (to be polite), but that business at least seems to be cash neutral. So I'm holding a few shares because I see it as a cheap option on Belong. They have funding and early signs are encouraging. Its a large and growing market and they seem to have first mover advantage. But they need to get their act together or Amazon will find a way to muscle in. So maybe, just maybe, in 3 years time they WILL have 100 Belong arenas up and running, generating �70m in revenue, with Game taking a 23% operating share.

Seems to be showing a lot of sells but price is steady...support at these levels. I'm waiting for a dip but we've been in the 18s for 3 weeks now. Thanks for the write up last week TBTT. I hope you got a chance to look Martin square in the eye

Loads of leases are about to expire, I don't think it would take that much to shut this business down. Talking about cash I just read in their presentation that they have facilities over the peak season of �169m, plus �85m in cash. I know these guys got burned once running out of cash, and they are keen to demonstrate to suppliers and credit insurers that they can meet their obligations, but that seems excessive? http://www.gamedigitalplc.com/~/media/Files/G/Game-Corp-V2/documents/results-reports-presentations/2018/2017-18-interim-results-presentation.pdf

Not many shares around facester. 62% between Elliot and SD. It moves like a rocket both ways. At these levels I would say its risk is limited when its cash alone is worth 50p+ per share. You are buying at the lows here. It was 60p not long ago and not much has changed about the market since then, if anything its improved slightly

Revenue higher but WAFER thin EBITDA margins as guided of 4%, little margin for error. Cash generation was strong adding to the growing pile again. The start to the second half is promising but the second half is always weak and will probably write off the H1 profit and then some. PBT loss of �27m in H2 last year. Full year break-even at PBT level would be an outstanding result. Too soon to see where Belong will go but as always the business is substantially de-risked by the cash and facility. Here is Edison's update, they are bullish on the longer term but its hard to see why when you look at the 2020 forecast http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com/research/report/game-digital657470/preview/