Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

I'll be sticking around. I foolishly sold a chunk at 14.5 for a measly 14% profit but I'm holding onto the rest, I want to see this beast of a lopolith reveal itself to be the Burundi Bushveld of rare earths. Full year results will be a spectacle as well. Fully funded, instos on board, main market, no warrants, only 170m shares on issue and will not only be producing but at a full run rate in a few months in a hot market.

Millions and millions and millions of warrants exercised in February. More warrants exercised than volume traded. Fully funded until 2019 comes at the price of a 20% warrant dilution overhang. Large gains will be short as the February pattern is repeated but hopefully this grinds its way up over the next year. MTR placing at 3p. They won't sell at a loss.

The same one. They took it into administration, added Digital into the name, gave it a new share price of 200p and refloated it.

You read my mind TS. Why pay 23-24 times for RRS or FRES when you can get HGM for 8? RRS divi yield is nice at 4%. Although is barely covered by earnings and I don't like whats happening in the Congo , Russia is the place to be, no chance of Putin raising taxes there and pising off the oligarchs. So what do you think the plan is for financing Kekura? $200+ million for the project in debt would push net debt/to EBITDA to 2.5x. I think they can afford it. I assume that's why they rebased the divi to allow some funding with excess cash. Combined with phased increases in debt over the construction period might get this down to a max of 2x. It could be huge, the govt is really pushing the Chukotka region as the next big thing, promising cheap power and infrastructure.

I think they must still be carrying forward some legacy issues with suppliers from the previous administration hence the strange arrangement on excessive cash and debt facilities. They went bust in 2012 because suppliers wouldn't extend credit anymore. I made a bit on this and let the profit ride in hope of some kind of cash return at some point. One thing about it is that it does move quickly and downside must be limited given its cash balance. They also have taken on any debt which is big plus in the current retail environment

Dead cat bounce? I wonder what Elliot is thinking about all this. They are sitting on huge losses yet don't even appear to have board representation. Seems strange for an activist investment company. Historically badly run business in a struggling sector and just given away half of their fastest growing business for almost nothing. Management sitting on a huge pile of cash and massive debt facility yet don't know what to do it with it. The only thing this has going for it now is that the SP is well below cash, let alone NAV. How many businesses with a positive EBITDA have a negative enterprise value? Take a bow Martyn Gibbs and prove me wrong.

Less than that but check the corporate website for the latest company presentation, it will be in there

...that would be tonnes and revenue per month...

400 or 500 per month? I'm not sure which it is, by middle of this year. 15% Nd content yields 60 tonnes per year at $75,000/tonne Gross revenue of �4.5m?

Hi utrecht I tend to stay away from the HUM board myself lately although been holding for a year or so now. For me the appeal of HUM is low cash costs, good management and high near term free cash flow relative to EV. I do like Dan Betts, he seems pretty honest, hasn�t put a foot wrong so far and actually seems to be a CEO who cares about generating value for all investors, including PIs. Its rare on AIM. On a P/E basis it trades on low single digits. In my view it does so because it is still in the commissioning phase and it only has a 7 year mine life. Which leads to my 3 opportunities: successful commissioning proving the cash flow, converting resource into reserves to extend mine life and, once they are cash generating, shareholder returns. Dan has told the market he will buyback shares if prices stay this low. In this market a dividend policy/share buyback will go a long way and I would continue to buy shares if they can balance that with paying down debt and a regional exploration program, including possibly acquiring some regional deposits. Operational risks are akin to a normal African gold producer going through commissioning, unproven grades and costs, and a relatively unstable political environment. However sentiment towards gold miners is weak and has been for some time meaning that there is a risk of further multiple contraction across the industry. Despite relatively high gold prices the USD is weak and costs are going up, pushing down margins . The Van Eck Gold Miners ETF has been on a pretty steady downtrend since 2016. There is widespread sentiment that the ETFs are being liquidated leading to gold miner shares being sold down. Speculation of this extended to HUM and was widely discussed on the board. Its most evident in the prices of the big highly valued miners like Barrick, Randgold, Fres, all not far from multiyear lows. I need a good FCF/Share to compensate for that risk. I�m expecting some progress on HUM towards the middle of the year but am in no rush. Cheers RL

On 2018 consensus EPS the P/E is 9.1 and dividend yield is 5%.

Bagger in 3 months, that's one hell of a rise. Expectations are pretty high, it will need to be a knock out result to keep the market happy.

Good to get some coverage in Reuters event though they got the name wrong in the chart. Some catching up to do indeed duster. I've just been looking at Namibia Rare Earths. Since November the SP has gone from 4c to 14c hitting 24c at one point, mostly due to news on a potential cobalt strike. Seems like a good way to speculate on the technology metals, they have a bunch of projects The Lofdal heavy rare earths project is moving at a snail's pace compared to Gakara, all they have completed is a scoping study in 2014, although at least they have an initial MRE. Resource wise grades are lower but they have a higher proportion of heavy rare earths than Gakara. It looks to be full of impurities (including radioactive elements) which they will need to build a processing plant and apply some pretty complex metallurgy to convert into concentrate. Kind of makes you see the value of the offtake with TK. http://www.namibiarareearths.com/upload/5.November_14_2014_NREI_Files_43-101_PEA_Report_for_Heavy_Rare_Earth_Mine_at_Lofdal.pdf

...where Tesla can get some neodymium? I smell a rare earths bull market! https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-metals-autos-neodymium-analysis/teslas-electric-motor-shift-to-spur-demand-for-rare-earth-neodymium-idUKKCN1GO28I

Biggest day of volume for many months today, driven by 2 large chunks, representing > 1% of shares. These are the largest single trades for some time and must indicate some kind of institutional activity. Still wonder when and if we will see an RNS, given that its a 1% chunk this would mean that an existing holder would need to notify

Thanks for the update Hedgestar, that's really useful. I wont get a chance to listen until the weekend. Is Mick now saying they are fully funded until 2018, before it was 2019? One day I would like to hear a CEO say that he thought his company was overvalued, just for fun

AIM truly is a snakepit but most of my big returns have come from this market, though for every success like SLP I've had 3 complete duds. It would be great if SLP could move to the main market one day

CJG I assume you are looking for companies with similar characteristics to SLP, the most important for me being being a Mcap at low multiples of near term cash flow, 1st quartile cash costs and AISC supporting shareholder returns throughout the cycle, a promising growth profile, minimal risk of dilution and good management. On the riskier side, if you're looking for junior miners with SPs trading on very low multiples of near term cash flow with low cash costs I would recommend taking a look at HUM and BMN. Both boards are very active and will give you an idea on whether this is something you would consider looking in to. HUM in particular has a great management team. Less risky are HGM and CAML, two of my favourites over the years, which have both been reliable dividend payers and have 1st quartile cash costs. The dividend yield means there is less downside risk but they aren't going to bag overnight

Three times concur. Watch one of management's rambling interviews, that alone should be enough to put you off JLP. If not look at their latest results, in particular the cash flow. They are many years behind SLP but without the quality of management to turn it around

The same thing happened after the trading statement on the 20th December, but the SP range on that day was around 7%. These were the only 2 days since 2016 the SP touched the 100 day moving average. In both cases the snap back was nothing short of violent; in December it was 25% up to the peak and so far this time its up 14% from the low. This a momentum stock in a 3 year rising rising channel. It must be on the radar of short term momentum based funds and algos as well which would explain the snap back the other day. At a 2018 P/E of 30+ fundamentally it seems pricy but this is matched by expected 40% EPS growth. It will eventually run out of legs of course as growth slows but there aren't many companies this big with comparable 2-3 year growth profiles. The BoD still have a lot of news flow coming to flesh out their recent strategy update and these guys have global ambitions. I think any good news over the next month could propel this ahead again. Resistance at 3550, if that gets broken next stop 4000p.