Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Its always fun to speculate but chances of a buyout at this point in time on this are minuscule. No one even knows what reserve there is. And I cant really see a customer establishing its REE supply change in Burundi at this point. To be honest I'm even surprised that a couple of institutions are on board so early. Thyssen is already taking 75%of the profit on this product under the offtake, can't really see them taking on a risky mining operation, its not their style. If it was anyone it would be Lynas Corp who already mines REE, has refining capacity in Malaysia and would take refining profits from TK. Not sure how binding the offtake with TK is though. But I could be wrong, I often am. TBTT if the drill samples are as high grade as Gokara can you see it in the sample like you would in a copper core? What do rare earths look like? Will the drill team know if they have hit paydirt before sending samples to the lab?

Hi Babbler, this is an extremely high valued growth stock, on EPS of 4.4p this implies a P/E of 80 and explains why mcap is so high relative to its financial measures. You need to look far to the future to see where the real value lies. Consensus EBIT is expected to be 7 times higher than 2017 levels in 2019. If EPS increases by 4 times then this makes the P/E only 20 and even lower in 2020. You also need to look to their business model. Customer acquisition costs are some of the lowest in the sector, with a payback of one year and an estimated 20 year customer life. The business model is extremely asset light which means return on assets are extremely high. If you look at their presentations the size of the sector is potentially huge, if LOOP only takes a tiny portion of that in a few years they will be cash generating machine. Take a look at Blue Prism, its Mcap is �1bn on 25m in revenue. Now that is an eye watering multiple!

You know what that means V2020... time for a top up. Looking at the charts there can't be many left who are in the money who have bought in the last few months, which means less chance of pump and dump. I'm ready to top up, already took a bite when it fell below 3 and will be ready for another if I can get them for 2.5.

Thanks TBTT for the in-house lopolith analysis, it sounds HUGE. A mcap of �30m is quite incredible, without having done any drilling, with no resource or reserve statement, not even knowing how much we are getting per tonne or what the unit costs are. Rare earths are literally just lying around on the ground waiting to be collected and put in a truck. The instos are getting on board, and the company is cashed up. But this could just be the start. April will be a big month, these drill results are eagerly anticipated and we have our first production update due, I'm itching to put together my cash flow model! I think we could be looking at some super low FCF multiples here.

Everything is looking pretty healthy here. Full year revenue of 27.5m, EBITDA 11m at a margin of 40%, which is a 2% improvement on last year. Net debt of 14.7m increased from 12.6m, at 1.3x EBITDA. This is after they repaid the STC earnout in cash in H2 (1.3m). Cash from operations in H2 seems a little anaemic after a very strong H1 (3.6 v 3.5m) so not expecting any surprises on the dividend. Was expecting a reduction in net debt so will be keeping my eye out for anything funny in working capital. H2 revenue and EBITDA both increased against H1, reflecting the acquisitions. The healthy order book and full year impact of the acquisitions should guarantee further growth in 2018. Will be looking out for any indicators of like-for-like/ organic growth to assess how much they are relying on acquisitions. Keen to get a feel for the acquisition pipeline and any further update on 2018 performance in the results which are due in a couple of weeks.

Take particular note of the following: EBITDA of $32m in 2020... EV/EBITDA of 2.2x in 2019

Liberum has raised its price target for SLP by more than 50% from 22c to 36c (26p). Perhaps this has something to do with the recent rise. You can view the consensus here: http://www.4-traders.com/SYLVANIA-PLATINUM-LTD-7671108/consensus/ They have also revised forecasts. Revenue and EBITDA are both reasonable and roughly in line with my numbers but what's interesting is the dividend. I'm assuming Liberum have met with management. Whats very interesting is the whopping dividend in 2020 of 10%, most likely when the capex requirements for Echo are complete. http://www.4-traders.com/SYLVANIA-PLATINUM-LTD-7671108/financials/

I'm also puzzled. My medium target with dividend was 20p and I thought that without mention of this the SP would stagnate. Today someone is buying in blocks of 100k and over the last couple of weeks someone has been scooping up even larger amounts. There is a buyer but probably a seller as well.

Usual MM tricks of artificially high ask making every trade looking like a sell

Just google 'the alternative view to cynical bear' Over �100k sold this morning (1% of Mcap) yet SP ticks ups?

Can't imagine this is a big deal. There were a small number of pilots around August last year, Game probably had to pay Maplin commission or a portion of rent. I don't think this arrangement extended to many stores

Pretty sure no one listens to what this guy says but here is his investment case anyway https://www.*************.com/views/34132/big-sofa-a-strong-buy-the-alternative-view-to-cynical-bear-from-hotstockrockets

Thanks for the update VI. For me next 6 months will be crucial. Revenue for H1 2017 was 0.5m, for H2 was 0.8m, anything less than 1m for H1 2018 for me will indicate the inability to retain customers and develop a recurring revenue stream. In the recent raising they indicated they are planning on increasing marketing, particularly in America, so I'm expecting cash burn to be higher than recent levels and unless revenue picks up they will need to raise more cash by year end. Their assertion from the capital raising last year (below) is mostly likely no longer (and probably never was) valid. There are still a lot of holes in this business case, which means I am only willing to punt a tiny portion of my portfolio on this. But I think there is a possibility that the technology is valuable, the BoD can sell it and as a result that breakthrough large contract or 2 may materialise. In that event the SP would bag. "The Directors believe that this strategy will not only deliver operating break even during the course of the first half of 2018, but also that, ultimately, the nature of the relationships the Company is building with these customers as long-term strategic partners will see its revenue continue and grow in the future."

Its on my radar but would top up further in HGM before anything else. They are just too reliable and committed to shareholder returns. I also got burned by POG some years ago getting excited about the size of the reserve. This POX hub just seems way too complicated and expensive. HGM price all over the place this week, we seem to have a floor at 1.40 but cant put together 2 blue days in a row. Calidus seems interesting, 1m+ ounces will always get some attention. I've already got a few high risk, early stage developers and explorers in the bag. So why not buy Calidus directly?

Can currently sell �50k at 16.1, above the bid, highly unusual

Thats the gamble here Older. Everyone knows this is a huge punt. Dwindling cash reserves and the impending loan repayment/dilution were a big overhang which has now been removed. Ipsos has a huge global reach, and for a �9m macp company the rewards of this relationship could be huge for BST. No institutions as yet on the register but management have a lot of skin in the game and the directors all took their fees in shares back in August at 18.5, and also contributed to the raising at that price. It doesn't look like any of them have sold a bean since then. Scroll down the board and you'll see the frustration in this share after many bought in after TWs huge ramp. A few links for you to decide what the market potential could be. https://www.bigsofatech.com/investors https://res.cloudinary.com/big-sofa-tech/image/upload/pdfs/Admission_Document_2016.pdf https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2018-03/ipsos-presentation-annual-results-2017_va.pdf

SP trading over the last week has been very positive. My SP was target was 20p with dividend but looks like we are on the way despite no news. A tiny number of weak sellers caused a brief dip but since then the SP has carried on to hit a new multi year high, which is very encouraging in the current weak market. Looks like Blackrock or Audley sold out to Eden Alpha and possibly further shares currently changing hands among the institutions who may be taking the opportunity to liquidate at multi year highs. I guess the next newsflow will be in April for Q3 results, delivering 18500oz will demonstrate the improvement promised by management. Basket still looking relatively strong despite Pd falling 6% yesterday...

Well its not very often that 20% of mcap is raised at a 45% premium to the closing SP on this market. This is a great vote of confidence in the product. and strategy This will allow redemption of the notes, further investment, avoids the need for any further dilutive fundraisings and gives access to the experience and global reach of Ipsos. Hopefully we see some results soon with new material contract wins to follow this up. Look forward to seeing the SP get a boost today, I'm deeply in the red on this one

Hi all, some good comments here today. Just enjoying a beer in the chalet after a day of boarding. A few more impressions from the updates: Good point re AISC costs Visitor, I'm going to look into this when I'm back at work. H2 cash flow looking to be largely neutral with my expectation for $12m in EBITDA offset by $6m in capex and $5m in tax payments. AISC starting to look more relevant in arriving at cash flow estimates. The ramp up in Q3 and Q4 to hit the target based on H1 was very aggressive. Its positive to quantify the downside risk for the full year, hopefully they can get closer to the top end but this highlights the dependence on reliable host mine plant feed, including grade, and the risks of doing business in SA, like power availability. Still can't believe the rand is so strong but it does seem to move with PGM prices. The $2m adverse sales price adjustment was a surprise to me, showing why mgmt likes referring to the PGM rand price. Two major shareholders left some time in H2, the strength of the rise in SP was impressive considering 6% was sold into this. Audley has been progressively selling down for years but a bit surprised by Blackrock who weren't around for very long who perhaps sold their holding to the new shareholder. Like all a bit confused with a highly cash generative business not even mentioning shareholder returns, just regurgitating the same old 'when higher sustained prices'. Echo should be funded from CF plus some change. How high do prices need to go and for how long? I'd like to see some more detail on future Echo funding and what's it actually used for. I dont think they're going to get past 50% on those Aus shares. On balance a little disappointed but saying that I tried to top up today and can't get anything for under 15p so it seems to me the selling lacks any real vigour.

I just can't be tempted by Tanzania. After the PDL and ACA debacle the threat of changing legislation and even full scale expropriation of assets is just too high. Havent even run the ruler over SHG. I keep my eye on POG though, when they pay down some more debt I would consider it. I like Russia (and the backing of an oligarch). I think EV/reserve is the best way to value gold mining companies, its basically just a quick and dirty alternative to a reserve-based NPV. Although HGM always have it in their presentations and they never seem to move from the cheap end of the chart.