Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Some interesting trade over the last week, seems that there is a seller, I�ve seen 4 blocks of 250k being sold and one block of 400k. I guess someone taking advantage of the multi year highs to book some profits The good news is that is this hasn�t impacted the price, which has found good support at 15p so there seems to be some underlying demand for these shares. Based on recent trends we should be getting quarterly results tomorrow, key numbers for me are production, cash costs (probably over 550/oz) and the cash balance (expecting 13m)

Good news re late contracts with prominent customers, net cash position has improved from $7m at June to $9.5m, order book for 2018 indicates another year of revenue growth and recurring revenue is steadily increasing which is likely to underpin the dividend. Good to see SPE on the leader board, 500p a distant memory, next stop 600p?

The share buy back policy was only after dividends. But anyway I think the relevance from this is the BoD line of thinking regarding a cash buffer. They also mention special dividends in later presentations. The basket was only 150/oz higher than today but cash costs were also higher. Market cap was similar to today as well. As you can tell I've been spending my day at work trawling through old company news

I don't know if or when it was cancelled but its from 2013. The policy would be the equivalent of a 3.6% annualised yield based on SP of 15p and would cost the company less than US2m per year. This is conditional on there being $8m in the bank after the dividend is paid http://www.sylvaniaplatinum.com/im/press/2013/210113%20SLP%20New%20Dividend%20Policy%20AIM_WEBSITE.pdf

equals nil. Cash at December is the same as current market cap. Once the dust settles this will head back up again

Says in trading update. I think today was a record close. If not its very close. I think 500p will be breached, but not 600p before results. Not many shares floating around right now. Only 10m shares on issue, don't see that very often on AIM

It really reflects the state of their mines (or the power of the unions) when they still are struggling to turn a profit at multi year PGM basket highs. So SLP used to have 2 customers but now has only 1. Im guessing this is the reason for the favourable movement on the concentrate off take over the last couple of quarters. So who has a cash forecast for December quarter end? Im going for US13m. Should be due any day now..

It seems that Sibanye can get some synergies and has access to more capital than Lonmin to fund the huge restructuring that is required to turn that business around. Seems incredibly risky to me. Leas do you know which of the majors refines our concentrate? Its not LMI is it?

I'm surprised by the strength of PT right now. I wasn't expecting the marginal tightness in the Pt market to have such an impact on prices. The coverage in the press suggesting positive fundamentals for Pt may be bringing the sector onto investor�s radars a bit more. It�s worth having a look at Lonmin�s Q1 results, they are truly awful numbers. Achieved basket of R13,152 v unit costs of R12,703. That�s a R450 margin per oz, 40 bucks. If prices fall 10% for a sustained period surely these marginal producers will shut off some production. They must be getting punished on costs as well with the rand so high. Bottom quartile cash costs is the place to be!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/briton-shines-in-platinum-love-story-ss62j69v8

By my calcs at a SP of 20p a dividend with a 30% NPAT payout will yield 6%-7%. Once Echo is successfully commissioned this could be a little higher and sustained over the next 5-10 years. Not many companies around which could offer that

Its going to pop

I'm expecting dividends to commence this year. Basket prices are at multi year highs and by the time the HY results are released Echo 1 should be close to being fully commissioned (late March/April). These are the criteria previously announced that are necessary for dividends. There are some clues in the annual report from October: "The company�s focus is on cash generation and it will return capital to shareholders via the dividend policy� "PGM prices are set to remain depressed as long as we have excess production and financial speculators interfering�in the event that sunny skies do appear we remain well positioned for increased cash generation and superior shareholder returns� "Project Echo is progressing well and the first phase is expected to be commissioned during the next 6 months"

I think everyone a bit spooked by Elliot selling down this week, I wonder they are selling now, they must be taking a big hit and its the perfect time for some shareholder activism. The market has lost faith in the retail sector with the awful retail sales data from today and the terrible results from the retail sector. MMs having a feel day with this - some real panic sellers today in the low 40s. I sold most between 50 and 60 but intend to put some back on Monday. The retail side is a rotten business but that huge cash pile and the exposure to esports may catch someone's attention.

I like mining companies with huge cash margins and lowest quartile costs. Similar companies with the same philosophy which have done well for me are HGM (gold) and CAML (copper). The share price followed the growth in dividends as metal prices recovered and I think the same thing will happen here. The BoD intends to substantially grow production over the next 2-3 years. They have the full year impact of Echo phase 1, Echo phase 2 to roll out, possibly some action around Phoenix and recovery improvements. I'm expecting full year production for FY2019 to be 85koz- 90koz and I think they can further improve on that in the following year with an ultimate aim of in excess of 100koz. Imagine the cash cost picture of they get to this. SLP will make money under any price scenario and will be the last platinum producer standing if/when they make the final diesel engine.

Yes it said something like paying dividends when higher prices were 'sustained'. If these record prices continue for the next month that would probably mean they intend to start dividends. I'm sure they would also like to pick up more Phoenix type deals but I don't think there are that many left

I know that we are definitely at a 3 year high, which is as long as I've been following it. It feels like there's a seller and a buyer in the background this week, you can buy and sell large volumes within the spread, which is pretty unusual. Almost all trades are buys and SP is slowly ticking up

Welcome Leas. I don't think there will be many more chances to get a good price with Q2 in a week or two and their tendency to over-deliver. I can't really see any better value out there right with a low single digit P/E so I've been steadily topping up along the way and will continue to do so as funds become available.

Right now the majors are all reigning in their capex and focusing on shareholder returns. And they all seem to have significant brownfield expansion opportunities with less risk than a huge tier one opportunity. There may be a surprise on this ala Gina Rhinehart at SXX, sovereign wealth fund etc. with deep pockets. Looking forward to seeing some more detailed plans from management around timing and strategy because right now I haven't a clue what their game is

Good questions Redroy and this is the reason why a) the SP isn't higher and b) how we scored the deposit so cheaply from Vale. The value of the nickel in the ground is without doubt, however its gong to take a long time and a pretty steady cycle of fundraising to get it out. I think we need a partner with deep pockets to sponsor this initially. SXX is the best example I can think of that has raised a huge amount relative to its MCap. Different commodity, geography etc but same principles. Huge tier 1 deposit with mind boggling cash flows once in operation but high capex and long development pipeline. Check out their news over the last year to see how they have raised finance. The HZM BoD have a done a great job so far, Its a testament to the quality of the assets that the SP is trading at a decent premium to the recent fundraising. Hopefully all their fundraisings go as well as this one!