Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Pretty poor result in UK retail, despite a big jump in hardware, which has only served to lower the already wafer thin margins by 100 bps. Disappointing no further info from Belong/Events/Esports. Looks like another sizeable loss is coming for the full year. The growing cash pile is the only saving grace. However a �100m market cap company having a �67m cash pile is ridiculous. How much could they possibly be planning on spending on Belong rollouts and other investments? Holding that level of cash (despite the history of the company) reflects poorly on their confidence in their other assets. They should be considering returning some excess cash, at least the proceeds of the Multiplay Digital sale, via a buyback or special dividend or telling us what they are going to do with that cash. They also have a �86m debt facility, what are they going to do with that?!!

The difference between the target price and current price normally determines their rating. Perhaps if there is less than 10% upside for PH it only makes an 'add' rather than a screaming buy

I think the market is optimistic over the January trading statement coming up in a couple of weeks. The Switch is selling really well across the US and Europe and we should see strong top line growth from Belong. Don't forget that the top 4 shareholders own 78% of the company, meaning very few shares are available and it can move quite easily.

Toddler perhaps you should start by going back through the announcements from the last year and read the annual report if youre looking to explain the chart. Anyways, the LT downtrend finished in July last year at a low of around 20p. Since then the only way has been up to a 12 month high. Momentum and industry fundamentals are looking good going into the trading statement and Game has a mountain of cash to play with. I'm estimating that at least 50% of the market cap is covered by cash right now and the retail business has been attributed nil value

https://www.ft.com/content/7a1cd446-f16e-11e7-ac08-07c3086a2625

The Switch is expected to drive one of the most profitable years in terms of hardware sales (if Nintendo can keep up supply). Game are rationalising their retail store footprint to reduce lease costs, although the increase in living wage is hurting them like most retailers. The digital side is growing rapidly as well. However the really interesting part is gaming. They are planning on increasing the number of Belong arenas from 20 to 35 by the end of this year, and combined with the festivals are great exposure to the rapidly growing esports industry. They also have a large net cash balance which will fund their investment plans and dividends when they become profitable. Best to read the latest annual report, everything is in there. They will release a trading update before the AGM later this month which will give a good idea of rest of year outlook as well. GLA

Gets a sell in today's Times Tempus. Not surprising as the stock is obviously too volatile for the average Times reader. They aren't really sure how Plus would deal with a crash in BTC and are implying that not all buys are adequately covered by a counterparty (is anyone selling/shorting BTC?). Its a valid question but Mr Market doesn't care today and I'm holding on for the ride

I think more Rich. This year we have further increases in the recurring revenue base and most likely a dividend policy on the way. Last year the update only came out on the 30th. This year the BoD were super keen to get this out to the market, it would have been submitted to the LSE on only the 2nd working day. Must have been a great final quarter

Odey holds 15%, per announcement just before Christmas. PTEC owns 10% I believe, the MD 10%. Why would you be selling now? Consensus shows earnings flat for 2018 & 2019 but everything has changed today - expect some significant upgrades soon with all those new customers ramping up activity into next year. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-03/cryptocurrency-frenzy-has-a-new-winner-as-plus500-users-spike?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=bd&utm_campaign=headline&cmpId=yhoo.headline&yptr=yahoo

Bristol I think that the market's reaction to the regulatory risks (i.e. none) says it all. If people want highly leveraged trading then companies like this will find a way to take it from them. I don't use Plus500 but IG is already migrating many of its customers to become 'professional' clients with even lower margin requirements then present to get around the new rules. Based on September average revenue per user was $1,200 with customer acquisition costs of $689. The increase in new customers was truly mind boggling. If only a third of these are active and with the full suite of cryptos now on offer (with high margin finance and wide spreads) this is going to be a very good result indeed.

if we got our money yet

Wow back to November high levels. Wasn't expecting a 20% open this morning. Not many companies like this around which consistently beat expectations time and time gain.

Lukewarm reaction this morning. 'Material' could be only £50k given only £0.5m in H1. Hopefully they have more contracts or positive 2018 outlook lined up to soften the blow of the trading statement later this month, given no announced contract wins in H2 I'm expecting it to be disappointing.

Some really interesting stuff on Pt/Pd fundamentals in this Norilsk presentation. Norilsk produces around 45% of the world's palladium and is forecasting a huge deficit over the next 3 years. They are currently building a strategic Pd reserve of 600koz anticipating supplying industrial customers if there is a critical shortage. It seems that Russian stockpiles have been depleted recently and they are attempting to ensure a market balance favouring suppliers over the next few years (like what Alrosa did with diamonds and Kazatomprom is doing with uranium). With palladium up 3% yesterday and brushing £1100/oz and Pt back to $940 it feels like price fundamentals are very positive for SLP in 2018. https://www.nornickel.com/upload/iblock/5b9/20171120_strategy_eng_2017_final_london.pdf

SP seems to hit resistance at 14p. I can understand why given that this price level has not been seen since 2013. But this company is a different beast from back then and I think the next set of results in Feb will bring in some new buyers and push this over the hump

Hi Visitor, happy new year to you. Current basket is at $1077/oz, a good $30 higher than the highest level achieved in December. Rh is up 125% in the last year, Pd 45% and Pt flat. I think around 45% of revenue is now coming from Rh/Pd at current prices and prill splits Phoenix split was posted much further down by Matrix... Platinum (61.147%), Palladium (18.74%), Rhodium (7.34%), Gold (0.387%), Ruthenium (8.59%) and Iridium (3.91%)

For my forecast I assume that current spot will be the next quarter's average. I'm not going to try and forecast rates and prices. I assumed a phased ramp up in production in Q2/Q3/Q4 to account for Phoenix and Echo, the increase in production will partially offset the rand. Phoenix has higher cash costs for now, ($550 from memory) so that will also add to the cost pressure. The late surge in the rand will support the end of year cash balance which you have touched on in previous posts. By the end of the year the quarterly run rate should be running at over 20,000oz, which means 2019 production of over 80koz, As the next phase of Echo comes on in 2019 this will deliver further production growth in 2020 and delivers the sustained multi year production growth mgmt have previously touched on and will further bring down cash costs. All in all still pretty undervalued: over 10 years production with decent growth for the next 2-3 years and by my forecast it is on a fwd P/E of less than 4.

Hi Shareminator, Using Q1 as an example: in ZAR terms cash costs for Q1 were 113m (based on the difference between revenue and EBITDA of $8.6m at a rate 13.2). The current rate is 12.5ish: using this on the 113m gives you $9.1m in costs, a $0.5m increase per quarter. Cash costs already were over $500 in the last qtr and the appreciation of the rand, offset by QoQ Q2 SDO production increase, will mean costs are closer to $550 in Q3 (v expected $500 in Q2). I'm expecting the cash margin/oz to be around $500/oz, and EBITDA margin of around 40% due to the basket. This is on an SDO basis (excludes Phoenix) and I have made a guess on production based on full year guidance.

...complicated

It doesn't exist but minimal processing and low labour costs means they are most likely very low. 2018 is going to be a journey of discovery