Member Info for ragnarlothbrok

Market cap �86m, cash �67m. Buying shares at this level pretty much gets a free business

touched USD3,440/tonne, the highest price since August 2007. 22kt is worth USD75m revenue. Glencore delaying its commencement of production is leading to some anxiety in the market On the downside euro based Sasa costs are going up due to euro strength and cable is at a post Brexit high which is reducing the dividend yield Nevertheless, looking forward to a dividend upgrade if conditions hold like this until 10 April.

Hitting 500p with style with a 46k purchase. Going to be a bit dull waiting for the results at the end of March. Very similar pattern here developing from last year: Last year on the day before the trading statement the SP was 383 and peaked at 500p the day after results. This year the SP was 362p but has already hit 500p. Not surprising considering that earnings are going to be significantly higher. Does this mean that the SP will continue to run up to the results?

I think you're right, at current prices Feb EBITDA looking to well over $2m. I still haven't updated my model for Phoenix as I�d like to see a quarter of results first. The cash margin is lower than SDO but still yielding healthy margins of at least $300/oz. Based on 8000ozpa that�s $2.4m pa EBITDA. At current prices that gives an IRR of 40% and 2 year payback. At $300/oz this still gives 25% IRR. The more I look into the better value Echo seems (if the cash costs stack up)

I think we will see �5 today, very few shares available

Good to see transition to Western Dumps is proceeding as planned, this was the only risk to the copper operations. Throwing off cash at these levels, debt could be paid down in 2-3 years, or maybe they boost the divi

What I call panic buying others might call speculators' FOMO. There were two times when the Pd price surged like this over the last 12 months (June 9, Sep 1). They were both followed by quick month long corrections before resuming the upward trend. It will be interesting to see what happens this time as it seems fundamentals have significantly tightened over the last 6 months and, like BTC, everyone will be looking to buy on weakness. Pd touched a record high of $1126 in a perfect storm of USD weakness and tight supply. At Friday closing prices SLP derives 44% of revenue from Pd/Rh. In Q317 it was 33% and in Q316 it was 28%. At this basket we are banking $2m EBITDA/mth, double Q317. Remarkable

And Pt at $1000. Rumours flying of big deficits in the PGM market, particularly Pd. Industrial users are concerned about availability and price and starting to contemplate changing their production processes to substitute Pt for Pd. There seems to be some panic buying at the moment, the charts are sizzling

Last time this price was hit was Feb17. After that its pretty much blue sky going back to the last gold bull market in 2011/12. Great signs for gold on both technical and fundamental indicators. Its cruised past the 1325 resistance level and the world is rejoicing as the USD has been absolutely crushed this week. Would be a good time to announce adding on another 200koz of production...

Pretty bullish, 5 year high breached and basket at $1,100. Pt recovery over the last 4 months has been remarkable

The good news is that I don't think we will have to wait long for results. It seems like they are very small, high grade and near surface ore bodies and we should see some results quite quickly. Meaning regular news flow over the next three quarters to satisfy those with short attention spans

Not inconceivable Snowman. Fag packet calculation: Half year profit was $1.8m. Let say great final quarter leads to 20% HoH growth, gets you to FY2017 profit of $4m or �3m. FY2016 was $2.7m/�2m = 47% YoY growth. Trailing P/E of 16 on a Mcap of �47m. Assume 20% profit growth in 2018 gets you to �3.5m FY2018 profit. A SP of �6 gives an Mcap of �60m and a forward P/E of 17. Throw in a dividend at 40% payout gives you 2.5% yield. Also throw in an increasing proportion of recurring income (as alluded to recently) and VOILA you have your �6

Thanks for the tip Rich, i'll take a look.

No way someone is flogging �40k at 13.6. Full day of buys. Might be a seller as well though. I was quoted over 14 for a �10k bid this afternoon. I'm still looking to top up at the right price.

I think we need to see some revenue and profit numbers at the half year before any significant movement upwards. A �20m cash return may give the SP a kick though

That's the aim of the game. All will be revealed over the next couple of months I'm sure

You're right the company don't market themselves very well and management don't seem to be very ambitious. The basket and production is at a 3 year high and they should be patting themselves on the back, issuing shed loads of options to themselves and selling their growth story. Apart from the quarterly investor presentation they don't do anything. My biggest concern is that the company is going to measure its success by the size of its cash balance and always find an excuse to not reward shareholders (waiting for sustained recovery in PGMs, concerned about rolling out Echo, completing buyback of Aus shares etc etc). I guess in SA where you�re earning 7%+ interest rates on cash in your bank account it�s a different story to the UK, where cash burns a hole through the floor in the bank. Compare SLP to JLP which is following a similar metal recovery strategy. Leon and Colin are hucksters and overdo it, constantly updating the market about every little detail and in touch with Proactive, Share Talk etc, making videos, releasing articles etc. The company is loss making and has no prospect of making a profit in the short term, yet has still lined up a large debt facility and is always on the hunt for deals and growth options. And it has the same market cap as SLP...

Hi Leas, no pun intended... They say in their latest presentation in the corporate strategy section 'Opportunistic buy back of shares when share price is lower than internal company valuation� In the whole of 2017 they only bought back 4.7m shares (annual report). As at 30th October they hadn�t bought back any UK shares (Q1 investor presentation). They seem to keep it pretty below the radar that they are doing this and now that the option plan has been closed and SP is higher I think it�s pretty unlikely that they buy back anything material without telling us first. I think in buybacks generally they only support the bid and provide a floor. I can�t really see how their intention to buy back shares would subdue the price. It would be added comfort as a potential buyer to know that the company is setting a floor, buying anything that falls to a certain level.

sitting bang on $1,100/oz. Palladium taking a much needed breather and platinum is now taking up the slack. Market rumours of production deficits for the next 2 years and stockpiling are likely to support the upwards trend in the ST. The basket is 40% above the low point of 717 in early 2016. The next target is the 3 year high of $1,141 achieved in January 2015. Despite the strength of the rand the ZAR basket is relatively strong as well. Well timed from management to expand production just when prices are soaring. Almost no shares being let go, I know there are a lot of LT patient holders out there holding tightly to their stock who I think will be soon rewarded. GLA

Looks likely Rich. Don't know who is selling now? There is no stock around, this is so tightly held the best ask I can get is �5k/�10k for 494. Shares Mag this morning speculate that the house broker Finncap has suspended its 2017 and 2018 estimates because consensus has been smashed by such a wide margin they need more information to update their models. Hopefully this is true.