Warrants and spikes6 Feb 2026 13:07
Yesterday was certainly interesting, and itâs still not clear that we know the full story. Was the release of that information simply a faux pas, or was it the result of a hack? From what others have posted, it appeared on the correct account (?), but it has since been removed. I donât use X much myself, so I canât add much insight, but for now it remains something of a mystery.
Turning back to warrants. The basic principle is straightforward: if you hold an in-the-money warrant, you exercise it and crystallise a profit â but only within a defined window. Most warrants typically have a lifespan of around 12â36 months, after which they usually expire worthless.
By my reckoning, approximately 40m warrants have been exercised since the company informed the market that:
âThe Company has 346,935,493 warrants and options outstanding.â
That is a very large combined number. Of course, we donât know the precise split between warrants and options. For most AIM companies there tend to be more warrants than options, but even if we are generous and assume a 50:50 split, that would imply at least 173,467,745 warrants outstanding as at October 2025.
Deduct the c. 40m recently exercised, and that still leaves roughly 133,467,745 warrants potentially in existence.
Another key unknown is the exercise price of those remaining warrants. However, as weâve already seen, if and when the share price rises further, additional warrants are likely to be exercised â which inevitably places downward pressure on the share price.
We are clearly not facing anything like the situation MET1 encountered, with an overhang of around 750m warrants at 2p, but there are obvious similarities.
And itâs worth remembering how that ended: MET1âs spike from nearly 50p ultimately collapsed to below 2p.
To be clear, Iâm not suggesting anything remotely as drastic will occur here. However, it does reinforce my view that any spike driven by the upcoming float is likely to be temporary, with the share price drifting lower again in the days or weeks that follow as warrant exercises, selling pressure, and âpromotionalâ intensity begin to fade.
As with all my posts, past, present and future:
All IMHO, of course.