RE: Trades20 Feb 2026 11:46
Sonic
I rarely, if ever, look at X, so I can’t comment on the individual concerned. But predicting SEC filing timing wasn’t exactly rocket science — there was ample publicly available information for anyone to make an educated estimate. I’m not sure that alone is enough to confer any credibility to the X poster.
As for a fund raise — always possible in this sector, though I wouldn’t necessarily expect one immediately. I’ve said before that I think this spike is more likely to peak in the days / weeks following the vote and the GLND listing. I would expect that event to be accompanied by a coordinated promotional push from Rob Price and others, potentially creating an opportunity to capitalise on any uplift. It does, however, feel uncomfortably close to the previous raise.
Looking ahead, we know the anticipated drill timeline. But between the GLND listing and first drill results, what are the material catalysts? I see Ashton has attempted to put his usual positive spin on this - but surely all of those factors are ‘’in the price’’ - none are news.
On HV — we have been told of numerous MOUs; one stating feedstocks were agreed to be delivered commencing 1 November 2025. As far as we know, sustained production has still not commenced. We’re now more than 12 months on from the original restart expectations, and in that period we’ve had four separate restart dates come and go.
Meanwhile, feedstock commitments, utilities, staffing, consultancy and general overheads all continue to require funding. And even once production begins, that is a long way from achieving profitability. Achieving revenue is one thing - not increasing existing losses is all together different - for that you need to be making a profit.
It’s also worth remembering that HV acquired the plant out of receivership, operated it for several years, and then mothballed it for around seven. Assets with strong, consistent profitability don’t usually get mothballed at all - let alone for that length of time.
So yes, I do expect further fund raises at some stage. The key question is timing. Hopefully 80M can maintain sufficient runway to benefit from any drill-related excitement before needing to return to the market again.
As with all my posts — past, present and future — this is IMHO only. It’s opinion, not advice. Please DYOR before making any investment decisions.