RE: Weekend fun FWIW10 Mar 2024 11:39
hms i agree with everything you said however in my view its not simple as big ifs, bust or admin. however i understand why you feel that way.
new contractors that have done 1000s wells is a major positive, hitting a completely new area and digging but this time aware not to create heavy mud weight is a major positive.
so even with risks i would put that 70/30 in hitting oil which is 100% there. even if you are 50/50 still good odds.
let’s say they fail again, who do you put blame on? easy to blame, i would be ****ed off like everyone else however:
is it bce management for underestimating these assets and being unlucky? like professional said why did they get it so cheap.
bce management new all the risks and proceeded with cheap inexperienced contractors or management thought they knew what they are doing and messed up many times. they said in presentation they learned from mistakes and what they will do differently, why say it like this like they are aware?
or the new experienced contractors failed on this side operation, are they unlucky or have they just messed it up?
regarding admin and bust, bce will not go down that route straight away, they shown this by doing all these placings. if they fail 3rd time, they will do another huge placing then attempt another operation or start drilling 2nd well. if these 2 fail, then you can start thinking of bust or admin.
hepseal i just converted it to pounds quickly cant remember if it was after expenses or before. if its 40k, 100k, 600k, 1 million revenue, bce will be cash flow positive and share price multi bags all that matters right?
at this 0.5p price risk-reward still looks good and potential is huge especially when all bce need is 150bopd to be cash flow positive. 200bopd-900bopd is multi bag 5x, 10x or 20x potential with revenues between 100k-1million.