Probability18 Mar 2019 15:28
The way I look at this is that if FDA approval is granted then Motif has the potential of being a 1bn company, which works out to be almost 40 times the current share price and that valuation is not unrealistic when compared to market size and competitors.
However, my gut feeling is that, due to the CRL, the valuation will never reach 1bn unless it is proven by real physical cash flows. Apart from Amazon, Apple & Berkshire Hathaway, I can’t think of any companies that has 40 bagged since inception let alone within 1 year? This share to 40 bag is extremely too good to be true and I can guarantee it wouldn’t anywhere near that magnitude, if it did then it would be like winning the lottery and how often does that happen, almost never. I am a LTH and feeling optimistic.
Does anyone have a realistic value of Motif if it is approved with labelling or further studies?