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What is CNA’s current pension shortfall?

Hi Jack,

I don’t know much about LLOY so can’t comment, but I will say that your purchase of Centrica seems like catching a falling knife, although I think you may have bought too early as I would have waited until they appoint a new CEO.

I lost a chunk going long on Centrica but recovered by losses by switching and going short, which I know is a 180 degree turn which paid well yesterday and crystallised my gains.

I’m surprised to see you exit VOD as I believe their bad days are behind them and they are in a growth industry with 5G to look forward to and the sharing of masts to reduce costs. VOD also currently has momentum and favourable winds on their sails. It won’t double overnight, but EPS and PEG will show growth gradually and debt let under control once the divi cut efficiency and the merger synergy pays dividends (pun intended).

I’m starting to be really scared of Centrica results.

I don’t think there are restrictions to short the shares just because the financials are due tomorrow.

I feel sorry for long term shareholders where Conn destroyed 70% of their capital as they probably thought this share was a safe bet. Despite this, Conn still received 44% pay rise, whilst ordinary workers were made redundant.

This has been going on for the last 5 years. How long does the Institutional Investors and the BoD need to wait to get rid of this CEO. What a joke this country has become to reward failure, whilst the shareholders are bleeding dry. It’s depressing, and I think the Tuesday’s results will look very bad and decimate the shareholder value even further.

I wonder if the shares would touch 62p after the bad news are announced end of this month. Conn made a fantastic mess of this company and he is still the CEO earning big bucks with a pay rise to boot.

Surprisingly, the Institutional Investors are sitting like impotent lame ducks unless they are shorting the shares.

This share seems to be anchored to quick sand as long as Conn is in charge and “This is Money” seems to be 100% certain that dividend will be chopped and with the risk of being relegated from FTSE100.

Someone suggested that a company may be interested in the data of BG customers, but why would a tech company buy the whole company especially a dead horse like Centrica with political and national takeover hardship when they could just buy the data?

Shareholders will get badly burnt today as this company is toast.

The BoD should make a decisive action rather than let this company go through slow death.

Good post. Most of the divi cut is priced in but it’s the other potential bad news that will drag this share down I.e. profit warning (this is probably why they had to let goo further 700 people recently) and any other small negative news will be punished mercilessly. I don’t see any positive news unless Conn resigns.

Could this go down to 55p?

Here’s the review from Motley Fool:-

https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/06/29/is-the-centrica-share-price-heading-for-55p-this-year/

It seems that the market makers are sucking in investors for the next drop.

I’m really scared of the next update end of this month.

Trump gave Huwawei the green light during the G20 Summit (more like G2 summit with USA & China as the main subject of business) for US Companies to sell to them, so things are promising.

https://www-fonearena-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.fonearena.com/blog/285807/us-government-allows-huawei-business-us-suppliers-again.html/amp

Yes, I just received the Corporate Action from my broker.

It’s best you nudge them.

How does the existing shareholder gets a piece of the action on the 7M raise? Do the brokers send a notification or we have to remind them?

Hey Scott,

I can understand your bitterness as you’ve probably lost a lot of money, but if you couldn’t make money going long on this share then see if you can make money going short? It doesn’t have to be a huge amount so that at least you’ll be contempt a little when you can say to yourself “I told you so”. And even if you can’t make money going short, then your losses would be minimal compared to the satisfaction you would get from being right. DYOR

Or alternatively, take a break from this share and focus on something that make stop happy and doesn’t remind you of the losses you’ve incurred.

Everyone has a right to air their opinion on this BB and I won’t stop you or anyone else from airing their opinions.

Good luck, and I hope everything works out well for you.

It doesn’t make any difference if divi cut is priced in, because when the cut is announced (not if) then you will shorters all over this share to make quick buck and that exacerbates the share drop regardless what has been priced in.

Fundamentals no longer matters in short to medium term and what’s traders trade is on the momentum and currently CNA is unloved and the momentum is going against it.

Uncle D,

There are many shares much worse than VOD, at least this is a growth market with the coming of 5G and IoT, whereas utilities like British Gas owner Centrica is totally doomed with a useless management destroying the company with 75% capital erosion when the CEO was put in charge.

There are few things to look forward to:- Liberty deal, Huawei decision, mast sharing and adoption of mass user upgrades of handsets to utilise 5G. Just patiently wait and collect the dividend whilst the share recovers. VOD is also a pan European company that’s reports their earnings and pays dividend in Euro’s so Brexit won’t affect them much and thus acts as a hedge. DYOR

Apart from CNA being the competitive out of the 6 major players, are there any other positive news going for Centrica?

The imminent obvious downside I can see is the dividend cut, this cut alone may equate to an approximate of 15-20% SP drop and any other bad news may further put downward pressure to the SP until it reaches 51-59.

Feel free to correct me with a sensible explanation.

I think the only way to reverse this downtrend would be for PI’s to sell this dog of a share and start shorting it until Conn is removed. DYOR

Do you honestly think the next update would be positive? I definitely know more customers would have left the business, the guidance is shakey and can be downgraded and the dividend could be cut. There are possibilities of more downsides than upside and this could even drop off the FTSE100, which means trackers will be dumping this one by one.

More uncertainties to come with Boris at the helm and a potential for a GE. Good luck to you all and seriously assess your positions before making a decision.

In the meantime, Credit Suisse are convinces that there will be a dividend cut of at least 50%.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/amp/news/222600

If anyone Has view on potential upsides, then please feel free to list them here:-

With the bad publicity and losing customers hand over fist on a daily basis, I can’t see any positive in this share. The only ray of hope to look for is price of oil going up, but do you really want to be reliant on that variable to make money on this company?