Member Info for Quady

Will paste in heading from link, as not easy to see. 2019 Pre-Feasibility (PFS) Work Program

Hi Jerry, if that's the case your info is current and mine out of date. I will provide link July 19th this year. https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/SOLG/14155462.html

Sorry Zoros, what utter rubbish, please tell me how dilution occurs. If a funding model is put forward, it more than increases the Market cap. I don't believe you understand how any funding model works. Could you please explain in some reasonable detail what type of funding model causes dilution. As most of the funding will be through bonds and loans with a payback under 30 years. In fact payback is around 4 years. The only thing I don't know, is if the 4 year payback is calculated on the total borrowing or on staging of the requirements. If it's the first option, than that's even better news.

Good evening Jerry, you are correct on the cash burn, however the expenditure is not Linear, and if we get it by year end. We may get this over the line on 22 million, with further funding set up, as I believe this is going on in the background. On the point of 1st quarter next year, they have updated that statement and promised last quarter this year, which was the original plan. However I do take your point Jerry. They do tend not to deliver on time. Maybe we will get a sense of direction in October, however I am not holding my breath.

Good afternoon, may I offer a possible explanation. As to why we have no further info and a slowly drifting share price.
I believe NM's hands are tied at the moment. 22 million is close to the bone, but should be enough to get us to PFS, if delivered on time.
I would firstly like to address all the core samples not reported on, for a possible MRE3. This may be because when the PFS is published that our resource shrinks, due to the difference in reporting between the PEA and PFS.
Firstly a brief description of a PEA.
A PEA tries to answer the question, “how best can this deposit be exploited to maximize its economic returns?” Unlike more advanced studies, a PEA can use inferred resources for its operational and financial modeling so long as one has a reasonable expectation the outcome will be a profitable mine. A PEA is normally followed by a PFS and, if financing with debt, a FFS. A PEA rarely forms the basis for a production decision because of the higher degree of unknown risks and costs and timelines.
Now the important difference between PEA and PFS, PFS description below.
A PFS is a more advanced study that uses only reserves and measured and indicated resources and involves more detailed engineering in order to optimize the alternatives for developing the mine and processing the ore. It also uses tighter estimates of capital and operating costs and other economic parameters by comparing them to recent examples. A PFS is usually followed by a FFS, but if financing with equity, can sometimes be used as the basis for a production decision if the economics are particularly robust or the costing is at a FFS level.

The point is this, We never doubled our resource, when we went from the original MRE to MRE2. We had to change the calculation and start reporting from 0.2 as opposed to 0.3 in the original MRE.

This I believe is why MRE3 is going to used to get the MRE2 to show the higher reporting standards for the PFS.

Now one idea, I have only just hit on, as you know I believe we are going to production. However you will have noticed that if we raise the money through debt, then maybe we can do without a FFS.
My point is this, if we get to the PFS and our recent appointment raises the funds to go to production. If able to do this through debt and equity. Then maybe we are much closer to production than many of us think. I would like some news in October, the same as everyone else. But don't be too concerned if we go into the new year and then we get a clearer direction. Good luck.

Yes sunscreen is important when driving a Morgan M3W.

Sorry to hear that Skippo. I hope this comes good for you, as myself and others on here. I am not sure I am the person to offer you advice, as I am currently 57, and started young. Spent some time as a broker in my early twenties. But most of my life in Information Technology. The only bit of advice, I may proffer, is maybe an investment strategy isn't the best line to take. At 70 maybe a spend strategy, like how much to leave the children, days out solo or with family and friends. Or my favourite a Morgan M3W . They are a lot of fun. I say this completely tongue in cheek, and wish you all the best.

Good morning Skippo, just realised, that I never answered your question, On a book to read. I am not a great fan of investment books, as there is always some new knowledge that someone declares is a must have and gives you an edge. I would not recommend anything by Jim Slater, as mostly states the obvious. Better to save your money, and buy a few extra shares. One book that may interest you is, The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Gramham. It's an old book written I think in the 1940's or 1950's. But will give you a starting place, and still true today. But I like that book as it suits my style of investing. I am sure others have taken other paths and have other strategies, and would not like my choice of reading, and offer up some other material that suits there style.

Hello Skippo, I have been doing this for almost 40 years, the main problems I have encountered, is it's one thing to technically work out the value of a company. That's the easy part. It's more difficult to define why that value is not achieved. Books are OK, but do not replace experience. Solgold is a good example. The one thing that would move this share is a more expansive market for the shares. Support of a price, a fair price. Comes from volume of trade. As a good story always wins out. Just look at the FTSE 100, and understand, why those shares are nearer to true value or above it. My recommendation is never be in a rush to do anything. Take your time. Don't worry about missing the boat. Better to make a small profit than a loss. But be comfortable with your investment. If you receive abuse on any chat room, remember it says more about the person abusing you than it does you. So a thick skin. Lastly have a plan. Depending on your age. I very rarely go for shares like this, and fund this type of purchase through the dividends of my income shares. I am mainly in FTSE 350 stocks to give me an income. You need a plan as to what you are trying to achieve. Be patient, investments take many years.

Hello Skippo, the reason that the price rises or falls, isn't to do with buys versus sales, or vice versa. It's how many are available on book. So for example if a MM shows 250,000 to bid or requests a block, this alters the supply and demand side of the equation. I could make it simple and say it's about how many are available within the free float, but others on this forum would correctly point out, that this is technically wrong. It's about supply and demand of shares, so it's about the offer price, which is set by availability of the share in question, as opposed to the bid price, which rises when blocks of shares are sold for an underlying price, and so etablishes a new level, and an offer price, where more are put up for sale, and so restricts or lowers the price. There are a few more factors, but generally that's the mechanics of a market.

About 45-50 pence, if that's all NM does. Maybe the extra shares come with Bonds for Newcrest and BHP. I know it's hard to envisage Newcrest and BHP raising the share price, without raising their stake, but some of this maybe to grant them options. I would still want to keep control of this . Doubt we are going to raise cash at our nominal share price, as buying the amount we are talking about would more than double the share price on the open market, and that's what we need to take into account.

Good afternoon Jerry, I should think our money man, is looking at all avenues. The PEA does not give us the figures for funding, but will give us an estimate, with the usual contingency plan, say 30%, as a rough guess. Maybe wildly out. The point I would assert, is that this is not a normal funding, where we plead for money. At last we have a valuation, so hopefully we are looking at many streams of funding, and will choose the most appropriate one, for lifetime development.

Unfortunately Mog, the 4.1 Billion figure, not reflected in the share price. I wish it was, as would give us a market cap of 5 - 6 times what we are now. An offer as you suggest would be extremely positive for the share price. Anyway some interesting times ahead.

Thank you mog999, can't disagree with anything you have said. I am unclear on the point of Cornerstone selling their ENSA stake to Newcrest. I would say that this is not within the standstill agreement, as shareholding increased. Therefore releasing BHP from their agreement. That I believe would shake things up. However this may make Newcrest more Cautious. I like most on here, am looking forward to seeing what October brings us. As if positive, would expect an upward movement before the end of the month, as this stuff always leaks.

Thank you mog999, had seen that quote, I would agree that if Cornerstone got the offer they wanted, that they would probably surrender their holding. However will Newcrest pay the price they want. My question still stands, if Cornerstone doesn't sell, how does that change things. I believe this is a strengthening of the argument that we go to production. But if they sell, then if it's to Newcrest, this changes the dynamic completely. Who says they will partner up with BHP, they may go with NM's holding and then financing the project through debt and bonds is an even stronger proposition. One thing we all agree on, is this mine gets built, no more will they, won't they. The question is who does it, and who controls the build.

Good afternoon addicknt, as always from yourself, a well structured and comprehensive argument. ( always said you may well be correct ). I take your point that Newcrest and BHP would not be keen on financing this, because as majority shareholders they would reap the benefits, not through funding. However we have the second problem where debt is raised through Debt and bonds, in a structured way. This is the way I prefer to take this to production and get the big prize ( I do disagree that dilution would occur as we would borrow on a needs only basis). I take your point that as share holders they may well vote against this. However they are roughly 25% of the shareholding between them, and can be out voted. I believe NM saw this scenario some time ago, and hence the standstill agreements to stop a takeover on the cheap. The question for all of us is, what next. I for one am pleased we have recently adopted a money man, to hopefully raise the finance. This to me says we continue on the way to production. Others would say, of course we have to show people we are serious, so buy us now at a premium. As I have said the spread of the share register is always what is going to drive the share price, as once someone obtains control or a concert group forms, then we have reached the end of the road and hopefully made money. Hence the Cornerstone element is key to my assessment. I would like to proffer a point. Supposing Cornerstone just will not sell, say they want production as well. OK funds would be required by them. But let's say that ends up being some of the funding. What then ?

Good afternoon bm3121uk, when you say he is legally required to release the drilling updates, that is incorrect. I am guessing that you are referring to the with holding of information, that would be adverse or give an advantage to the company share price. Drilling is what the company does, it is not outside it's remit. You wouldn't get McDonalds, continuously updating their sales to the market. They do it at various stages of the yearly cycle. We just need to wait.

Good morning mog999, agree with timing of MRE 3 and PFS, l believe depending on the data sets and extensive granularity, that it will be done in a way, that ports a lot of the information into the BFS and finally funding. Hence wouldn't be surprised if PFS is delivered late, but BFS on time.

Good morning addicknt, I concur. I believe it's not lack of news, we are now entering a phase, where fund raising will commence, however, we still have some way to go to get to PFS, BFS. I suspect that the data sets, are being formatted for the PFS. This will take time, as it depends on how you want to present the information, and the level of granularity required.

Good afternoon Jerry, thank you for the update, good to hear the BFS is expected end of 2020, in the same quarter that BHP, are released, and able to bid. Sounds like it's all going to happen in the last quarter of 2020, assuming no great drift.