RE: Election next year4 Jul 2020 10:07
Good morning dusterinmong, I have probably looked into the political background, more than most on here. In fact, I looked at it for 18 months before, I brought into Solgold 7 years ago. The political system in Ecuador, is a functioning democracy, but has one major difference. In the first ballot, if your party wins 40% of the vote, and you are the only party to win 40% of the vote, then that's it, you become the ruling party. If not, then you have a run off. The current party, won 39% in the first round, last election, and won the run off. Moreno is only president, because the previous incumbent, had served two terms. You cannot serve over two terms. So what does that mean? Well if Moreno should win early next year, he cannot run again, when Alpala is built. So at some point we will get change. However, Moreno is to the left, if you like, he is the socialist choice. His opponent, who is the leader of a recently formed party, is to the right. Both I would say are level pegging, at the moment. My feeling is Moreno will lose, and we will get change, because, we are seeing an austerity program in the country, in order to meet the requirements of the IMF's 5 billion loan. However, with declining oil revenues, mining is the new black gold, and much needed. On one of the presentations, it was mentioned, that when Alpala was up and running, that it would contribute around 4% to the country's GDP. That's massive, and both parties, will not do anything to upset, inward investment, at the time, they need it most. So on a personnel note, I am currently relaxed about the political environment.