RE: Very positive14 Jul 2020 10:19
Good morning all, I believe that the Solgold offer for Cornerstone will be accepted.
Here is my reasoning.
The offer buys 32.39 million cornerstone share at 11 Solgold shares per share. This equates to 356.29 million shares, so this is how much we issue.
So we now calculate, why this is attractive to Cornerstone, the answer is , that it is and is not attractive. Here is why.
We issue 356.29 million shares, this takes our total shares in issue from 2.072 billion to 2.43 billion roughly.
So to get the percentage holding after the new issue, the calculation is 0.356.29/2.43*100= 14.66%
So although Cornerstone give up 15% of Alpala they get back 14.66% of Alpala and all other concessions.
With the 7% of Solgold shares held by Cornerstone, they own currently 7% of all concessions and when you add the Alpala part to the percentage of shares, you get ( 0.85*7 ) + 15 = 20.95% of Alpala
So you give up 20.95% in total of Alpala for 14.66% of Alpala through ownership of Solgold shares.
But you gain on future concessions by giving up 7% of Solgolds total concessions, and getting 14.66% of the total of Solgold.
So we are left with two questions.
The first question: Is the reduction in Alpala, worth the more than doubling of their total ownership in Solgold. Some would say not, some would say maybe.
The second question: By accepting this offer, all Cornerstones liabilities are wiped out. Not going to put a figure on this, as we have all come up with different ways and amounts of calculating this, and since we all differ, I am not sure what calculation is correct. But hopefully one thing we can agree on, is it's significant.
In conclusion, I believe the offer will be accepted, because we are offering fair value for Cornerstones holding. As without the debt owed to Solgold calculated in, You could argue that the deal for Cornerstone share holders, was marginally not good, However, once the debt liability is erased, this is an excellent deal for Cornerstone shareholders, and gives more than full value. Hence I do not believe anyone else will bid for Cornerstone, as they would carry the debt Liability after DFS, So they would have to offer above full value, and Carry the debt. Hence why I believe Cornerstone shareholders, will accept the Solgold offer. All the best everyone.