RE: TK proximal targets26 May 2026 07:09
Xhita, I understand the caution, but I don’t see either diesel or Ebola as a project-stopping issue at this stage. On diesel, I would challenge with the question: is there evidence of actual disruption to TK operations? (not simply whether global supply chains are under pressure). If TK has priority, and roads, ports and freight are still operating, then diesel availability is a risk to monitor, but not necessarily a reason to assume construction of the mine is materially impaired. Yes, Ethiopia has had fuel disruption, but that is very different from the country grinding to a halt.
Also Trump wants to win. There is a strong political incentive for him to de-escalate the war. Sustained high fuel prices into the midterms would be politically damaging, I would go as far as to say suicidal, so I expect considerable pressure for a deal or workaround to bring prices down.
On Ebola, the risk is government response measures rather than the disease itself affecting contractors or mine construction. Historically, outbreaks have been contained over a matter of months, provided contact tracing, isolation and public health controls are implemented effectively. The outbreak that drag on tend to be those complicated by conflict, weak local trust, delayed detection or resistance to health measures. Importantly, Ethiopia is not the epicentre, and, as far as I am aware, has never had a recorded Ebola outbreak. WHO previously assessed Ethiopia as the best prepared of the 14 high-risk African countries it reviewed.
So yes, both are worth watching, but I do not see either as a current reason to question whether TK is/will be built. For me, the more relevant question remains: are contractors mobilised, is funding in place, and is construction progressing on the ground? A: Yes, Yes, Yes.