Member Info for Qnard

Just bought me some bars...

Ah, near Wrens nest! Small world...

Lol, I was in Lapal, but bought my first house in old hill. Bet it's really changed, must be 20 years since I was last up there...

Hey Dsrt, I used to go to Leasowes High school many years ago, you didn't go there as well did you? 😊

Hi Patshare,

Well, great news, Harry has done it, he deserves credit. I did have my doubts about the re-rate, I did say there would probably be a raise, I still believe there will be a consolation (see previous posts).

So to all the LTH's, congratulations for believing and holding on and averaging down. I have said this is a share to stick in the bottom draw and watch as we will do very nicely. I will be buying more over time. I am waiting with interest to get an update on Saudi.

I hope there is NOT a buy out, the upside is huge and would be lost if we were swallowed up. As I have said before, watch the rampers and derampers and don't get caught out in the hype. Do your own research.

Happy Christmas to you all. Let's see what excitement 2026 brings.

I did say this is just on TK alone. Agree re the multiple assets and jurisdictions, once concrete, there is massive upside, have always said that. Personally I can't wait. Been a long 13 - 14 years!

I did say this is just on TK alone. Agree re the multiple assets and jurisdictions, once concrete, there is massive upside, have always said that. Personally I can't wait. Been a long 13 - 14 years!

Oh, and I should have said, I am still buying more each month. It's the potential of the divi's that excites me.

Not financial advice either. Just my musings. Pays yer money...

Hi Stebo, I am 60+,been an analyst by trade in the financial arena for over 30 years. My figure not picked out of thin air. It is what I would expect to be presented to me by one of my team. If I/they were to present some of the forecasts on this forum credibility would be shot. I see massive potential upside, but not yet, especially with previous history. I would express caution when expecting massive re-rates (just yet).

I do not disagree that this is undervalued, it's about when that will be corrected. I see a 75% uplift from here, possibly a bit more, then resettlement until we receive more news (e.g. Saudi) or get closer to production. With solid, concrete news, such as drilling results, exciting news from Saudi etc. I will look again. Sorry, I just can't get on the bandwagon just yet.

And don't get me wrong, more than happy for it to go to xxxp tomorrow, means I get an earlier and even better retirement.

Anyway, these discussions will be ended in a couple of weeks or so.

Q😊

Hi Kefi, no, fully appreciate others views. I am naturally more conservative, more than happy to be wrong! 😀

For what it’s worth, and without disappearing down a spreadsheet rabbit hole, this is how I see it. On signing you normally get the knee-jerk reaction — sidelined/new money coming in, and optimism taking over which I see us moving into the mid-2s. Historically, that doesn’t hold for long and I expect profit-taking to follow see it ease back towards the low-2s once the dust settles.

From there, absent of any fresh catalysts, my gut feeling is it will mark time in a tight range between 2.1-2.3p until we closer to production, when the market usually starts to price delivery rather than intent.

This view is based on Tulu Kapi alone - positive news from Saudi, other/new licences, or an increasingly supportive gold price would add to sentiment, but I’m not putting numbers on optionality ahead of hard news.

Whilst I would love a serious re-rete at or after Christmas, I personally don't see it. This has always been one to tuck away for the future for me.

Just one other point, if we don't get the 8/10+ multiples quoted, wouldn't that be better? Completely de-risked, what more could you want from a potential cash cow, than to keep growing your holdings in the background..

My thoughts only (for what they are worth)

GLA.

Q

I know who I'd like an AK47 wielding nutter to abducted... 😂

Their

I'm sure with thier analysis skills they will be able to get AI to give them the formula to make the stuff, won't need Kefi at all...

Main ingredients mate:

🌠🌈⚡🔥💧

Hi Bonks, here you go. Won't be able to respond for a while or I'll get a rollocking... Have always felt the whole licence thing is a bit muddled. I don’t think KEFI ever actually lost the ground the way people imagine. From what I remember, they did the trenching and basic spend when they picked it up from Nyota, and then everything just got jammed up when the government froze licences in that whole region. It wasn’t like KEFI had messed up their commitments and got booted.

The 2018 slide gets thrown around a lot, but the way I read it (and happy to be wrong) is that the area was basically marked out for KEFI once TK construction started properly. It’s not the same as KEFI admitting they’d lost anything.

Not sure if Eithiopian mining law protects prior rights if you’ve sunk money into a licence area and the government stalls things for political or bureaucratic reasons (anyone help on this?) If KEFI had that reserved area confirmed in writing, then giving the same ground to Askari years later is where the issue really is and should get unwound easily.

I don’t buy the idea that this was some handshake deal. KEFI’s lawyers have been all over this for ages, and they wouldn’t bother pushing it legally if it was all based on a vague conversation from a decade ago.

Am not saying KEFI will win automatically, but it’s definitely not as simple as “you don’t have it anymore so tough luck”. There’s more history behind it.

Those are my thoughts, apologies, usually go back through and re-read a couple of times before I send but got to run!

Hi Bonks, last day by the pool, wending my way back to gales and rain. Have some thoughts and will do a bit of digging and come back later on.

Q

OK, I raise you a tenner and a pint Kefi will have them. Back in a year!

This is going to get interesting....

Then write to: Habtamu Tegegne Minister of Mines and Petroleum, Mariam Road, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. P.O. Box 486 and stop posting absolute drivel on here. I, and I suspect a few others aren't interested if you will invest or not

For anyone newer here, I think some context helps with the latest funding update.

Tulu Kapi isn’t being financed in some weird one-off way. The bulk of the money – about US$240m – is coming from standard senior project finance lenders. These are proper institutions who tear a project apart technically and financially before they lend, so that part of the funding is very much mainstream.

The bits people are reacting to are the gold streams and the preference shares. Yes, they’re more expensive than bank debt, but they’re also very common across the mining sector, especially when equity markets are tough or the jurisdiction carries extra risk. It’s basically a way of getting the mine built without issuing a huge number of new shares at a low price.

This isn’t just small AIM miners either. Barrick has done major streaming deals with Royal Gold. Lundin used a big gold and silver stream from Franco-Nevada alongside senior debt to fund Candelaria. Adriatic used senior debt plus streaming to build Vareš. Same tools, different scale.

None of this means it’s risk-free – it definitely isn’t. The streams and prefs give away part of the upside and everything still comes down to delivery, Ethiopia, and the gold price. But it’s probably not fair to paint this as some desperate “last throw of the dice” structure. It’s a pretty standard modern way of getting mines financed when straight equity is hard to raise.

In simple terms, it’s a trade-off: less dilution now, but more of the future cash flow shared with lenders and stream holders. Whether that’s worth it depends on how confident you are that Tulu Kapi actually gets built and produces as planned.