Member Info for PUTUP

"Cost recovery pool is now at 120% of current enterprise value 🤑💵 "

LOL someone struggles with mathematics

Yes. But can't be double-counted in valuation and can't be invoiced twice. So model the CRP net of the receivables to estimate future invoices. Very important re: Note slide 8 "cost recovery pool supportive of cash flows"

"3) Cost Recovery Pool = $224 m!! 🤑 "

Gross. Of which $153 million has already been invoiced in the past due invoices. Pro forma net CRP to GKP at end December 2023 $57 million (19p per share)

Note slide 8 "cost recovery pool supportive of cash flows"

Note also that internally they model export restart in Q4. Will have to push back my assumption which is much earlier.

(aa) can't even get the basic numbers right...

No surprises in the announcement. Terrible results but expected given circumstances. Management doing a great job minimising costs and keeping the field ticking over, continuing to tread water. Little to say about contract ratification and pipeline reopening. Current cash flows still flattered by historical cost recovery. Good that payables normalisation is now complete.

Ho hum.

"as long as they don't give away their assets in the form of capital returns to whining shareholders"

LOL Give away? The shareholders own the assets anyway

GKP should only invest that which they can recover from cost oil. The CRP, including that big chunk in the receivables balance, needs to be returned to shareholders.

Mad batter Paul is back...

The conversation:

Me replying to Seplat aka Paul/John etc: ""We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears."

When and where? If anything we've had statements from the IOCs to the contrary."

The Cook: "Until this time, where Apikur for once didn't come out and deny this was happening, as they have usually done."

Me replying to the cook:

"So hanging your hat on no comment. Interesting.

Time will tell. Let's see what GKP management say about that later this week. And away from that, hopefully there will be drivers of stock performance in the far shorter timeframe."

No numpty. I quoted one and responded to just that.

Seplat I thought it entirely obvious I was replying to the cook. Do try to keep up.

So hanging your hat on no comment. Interesting.

Time will tell. Let's see what GKP management say about that later this week. And away from that, hopefully there will be drivers of stock performance in the far shorter timeframe.

"We have confirmation from the Iraq Ministry of Oil that 1) negotiations with the IOCs are ongoing and 2) payment of outstanding arrears."

When and where? If anything we've had statements from the IOCs to the contrary.

Haha. The 00k was a mate of mine. In small.

"Surprised at you putup.

With zero visibility for sales you want a buyback?!"

Yep. No need for $82 million to sit on the balance sheet and a great time to mop up the free float. A dividend doesn't do that. Most divi recipients reduce their value at work by banking the dividend.

The more disgruntled retail holders that can be mopped up the better. Plenty still prepared to sell at or near current levels.

One week until a buyback announcement? Might finally give some impetus to this sad stock...

"Let’s hope Old Joe vents his spleen on the hideously wealthy Iraqi & Kurdistan rulers when they meet soon. "

If you think Iraq/Kurdistan is a priority for the US government I suspect you are deeply mistaken

"The $ 151m is a completely different matter, and there is a further approx $ 40-50m net [for the GKP] in the CRP. So the sum is let's say $ 200m. "

That's worth more today than a discounted flat line production going forward

"$ 3.1/barrel so OPEX "

That will likely be proven too low

"40-45m in CAPEX is required to keep the production flat"

If Net to GKP that might cover it in a good year. Don't forget direct Shaikan G&A and head office G&A.

And do we keep our license if we refuse to invest because we can't recover costs?

"any fixed fee for reimbursement by federal Iraq is problematic because it doesn't adjust for changes in oil market prices and is inconsistent with the manner IOCs are reimbursed in federal Iraq or around the world."

Yup. As he said.

Even if this is "the deal", there's still lots of questions. Who pays the IOCs in Kurdistan? If it's the KRG then they are heavily exposed versus the contracts with the IOCs. For example, $20.60 per barrel is still too low to pay GKP/MOL what they are owed when they are recovering historical costs (assuming $80 Brent and a $32 discount) - how do they fund the difference? - and offers very little room even thereafter for payment of arrears. And, of course, it's even worse if the oil is sold for better than $48 a barrel down the pipeline.

Likely quite some time before this is resolved.

"This company is pure Gold. Unfortunately it is ripping off the people of Iraq. They have paid out more in dividends to share holders than the current value and that does not include payments to the government."

They've just been paying out the money pre 2016 stakeholders put in...

Still swinging at spin bowls in his head that guy is...