Member Info for PUTUP

"In God's great scheme of things $151m is a rounding error. Do the math.

The real goal is the self-funding dream. "

What are your assumptions and valuation for the production of oil going forward? "The self-funding dream". You must be prepared to pay up front for a massive increase in oil production if you think the $151 million is rounding error. Show us your valuation work.

Such a naive summary...

"So the question is who would lend their stock knowing that the shorter will reduce the value of their primary holding"

Who says the shorter are able to influence price that significantly? You get paid to lend. If you are a long term holder why not earn something from someone with a contrary view. Shorts serve a good purpose in markets. (In contrast to all the whining here.)

Perhaps TSSZ really meant "ka-boom"...

Fully diluted market cap is $278.9 million (at 95.75p and fx of 1.2644)

Jan 30 cash $82 million

"the owed amounts if received"

That's the 152 million dollar if...

Well, as I said about 6 or so weeks ago it was worth a look. (Disclosure: I bought in at around 155 NOK.) Some of the short term gain I expected came today but I think there's more to come. Note the comments re Tyra and distribution policy. As always, do your own research.

So did anyone take a look at BlueNord? Plenty of opps to buy in below 500 NOK over the last couple of months and now 546 NOK. Probably more to come...

What might the cost oil per barrel recovery be if the pipeline reopens at the beginning of April (as I currently model)? Of course, it depends heavily on whether current contract terms are maintained. Let's assume they are. Of course it's a huge leap of faith to 100% bank on no changes to the contract but let's cross our fingers and toes...

It also depends on how much capex the Contractor deploys in 2024. The company has guided to a mere $20 million NET but let's assume they begin to ramp up as the pipeline is reopened and instead spend $35 million NET ($43.75 million gross). The company should continue to minimise capex until the CRP is fully recovered, but will need to spend to get production going again.

Here's my current model assumptions for Brent and monthly production April through December. Flat Brent averaging $80 a barrel, Shaikan being sold - as previously - at a $32 discount (a lower discount will just pull forward the remaining CRP recovery) and a steady ramp up in production to get back to 50k bopd in December.

Apr 80.0000 30 30,000

May 80.0000 31 35,000

Jun 80.0000 30 35,000

Jul 80.0000 31 40,000

Aug 80.0000 31 40,000

Sep 80.0000 30 42,500

Oct 80.0000 31 45,000

Nov 80.0000 30 47,500

Dec 80.0000 31 50,000

We also have to assume an opex figure. The company has stopped providing opex per barrel guidance but let's assume the previous $3.20 per barrel (gross). We also have to assume a figure for direct Shaikan G&A: I've used $6.5m for the year (gross).

So what does all this imply for the cost component in monthly Contractor receipts (ie gross)? USD per barrel:

Apr 17.21

May 17.21

Jun 17.21

Jul 17.21

Aug 17.21

Sep 9.67

Oct 6.20

Nov 6.14

Dec 5.90

Unsurprisingly, when the CRP is normalised (historical costs are fully recovered and the contractor can only recover the current month's costs) the per barrel cost oil component collapses. From then on recovery depends principally on the level of capex demanded by the FDP. I will leave it to you guys to figure out the maximum annual capex and opex that can be recovered for a given volume of production and realised price assumption, assuming there's no change to the current contract terms.

"Not sure people will want to be out of this over the weekend"

How many people here aren't in?

Damn Nobull, you spoilt the fun. I wanted to let Andy take enough rope to properly hang himself. He doesn't realize where the listed company is incorporated...

"when this was a screaming buy around 70"

Yeah I bought big time then. As I said then:

" I'm of the view that this is cheap and have been buying all the way up from 69p."

They were producing about double the amount of oil as now, the pipeline was open and they were being paid with clearly understood contract terms. They had an agreed FDP. The off-balance sheet CRP asset was multiples of what it is now. All you had to believe in was a recovery of the oil price. Since then a lot of capital has been paid out of the company. Different times...

Andy pandy back in the filter bin. Muppet.

While somewhat irrelevant, BroadfordBay, and TM, is correct. He is not a member of the board (although, as noted, we can expect him to be appointed in due course). He participates in board activities as part of the Technical Committee (as does John Hulme who isn't a board director either). In any event, he is a "person discharging managerial responsibilities" (PDMR) and the company is required to make the relevant disclosure. 20k for a person in his position is neither here nor there.

Andy pandy has never been on a board

You guys are hilarious. Arguing about whether he is a director... The board will have made him buy the stock. Don't read anything into it at all.

It's good to see the technical support (albeit weak) at 94 'n change hold up. Let's see what happens. I'd still expect it to be tested again. It seems clear that management and the board haven't got the balls to get started on a buyback before the quiet period ahead of FY results and that's the bid we really need to see. Maybe with the results in 5 weeks or so.

"Someone's Confident"

Undoubtedly an obligatory purchase on taking the new role. (And smaller than my last buy!) Don't forget he got most of his stock holding via free options.

LOL. GKP I went bankrupt in 2016. Down in flames. The then shareholders got a sprinkling in GKP II for their ashes to keep them quiet and ease the restructuring. Forget about GKP I. Even from 2016 you'd need to adjust for dividends and buybacks to have an appropriate comparison for GKP II.

6 month performance as of today's close:

GKP -7.4%

Genel -8.8%

Today's rally has helped them catch up

"Interesting that Theoryman pops up when PUTUP is getting a bashing or being ignored with similar pedantic energy sapping posts . Misery loves company I guess."

Commonsense loves company

Fiesty little weasel is ol' gggg21...

Yep, nothing to see in that article.