Member Info for PUTUP

"no concrete progress"

That about sums things up

"Today gone to 0%. "

Or they just went below 0.5%

After that little drama it's back to boredom for another three weeks. 83-102 range trading?

I've adjusted the assumptions in my model pushing back the pipeline reopen date (again) to end April.

Yawn.

If there's no TR-1 you can likely assume it's institutions having to sell the position from one portfolio into another

There are only 6 shareholders with that sort of volume to sell. I suspect it will be some time before we find out what happened.

That's highly unusual. As is the 3.55 million Off-Book. Someone crossed a large amount of stock.

"There should be $86 m of it in the bank already."

From the release: "enabling the continued reduction of accounts payable balances."

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Let me guess, NoBull is back!

They can't do anything before the 21st of March. It will be interesting to see how things trade between now and then.

And while it's a distribution of value and not a creation of value it's the bid we desperately need in this stock. On top of that, it might squeeze the shorts in a way the inzy winzy tiny weeny top ups from those here cannot.

Yes. A buyback. They don't need to retain $82 million in cash, particularly once payables have been paid down.

"As i read it its 10m above

Not 10 mill minus 6mill"

Commas matter

I wonder how much came from storage versus production...

Volumes are good news as it helps keep the field ticking over. Pricing is a shocker. Current cash flow still flattered by historical cost recovery. But good (modestly) to slowly whittle down the CRP balance and keep the lights on. Current share price still demands a return to exports in the very near future. Shame there's no update in that regard.

It's why any contract discussions are so important. If the contract doesn't provide for sufficient cost recovery it doesn't matter what JH or the Board does or thinks.

"It happens when the total payments is equal to or larger than twice the costs, R factor = 2 or more."

Well, yes. But with investment capex the rate of change in the R Factor slows. We are a long way from the baseline level of volume required for tipping point.

"given payment stability and reliability, GKP should load up with capex and follow the self funding premise of the business model"

That's the point innit? It works only if we can recover costs. If they crush cost recovery we can afford commensurately less capex. Funny how costs are being debated heavily in Iraq at the moment...

Ha! Model when that happens….

"The R Factor is still likely around 1.19 now. So that's a 27.2% share in Profit Oil of which the contractor has 80% i.e. 21.8% now and falling."

Just to clarify this once more. The R Factor determines the "Working Interest Share in Profit Oil". Use of the words working interest is now a bit of a misnomer given the KRG/Iraq have an interest in the working interest of profit oil. The Working Interest of Profit Oil is split currently:

GKP 61.5%

MOL 18.5% (ie the Contractor has 80%)

KRG 20%

So currently the Contractor gets 80% of circa 27.2% i.e. 21.8% (with GKP getting 61.5% of 27.2% and then paying 20% of that in cash in the form of CBC). It's the Profit Oil stream from which GKP makes money.

Yes. They align when cost assumptions aren't credible (they previously guided $3-3.4 per barrel and we've had considerable inflation since then) and when capex is so low there is no investment in the field for growth (or worse). :)

I reckon maintenance capex (the amount required to keep volumes constant) is about $40-50 million per annum. I could be wrong on this and maybe an engineer can provide a better estimate but this is my current expectation and I fear, if anything, it is too light.

At any rate, I think you should now see that $12 per barrel is not good versus the current contract terms. And no operator would agree to the FDP under such revised terms forcing both parties back to the drawing board.

(Don't forget to look at the Profit Oil side as per the comment below.)

Also, don't forget that Cost Oil shifts to Profit Oil when recoverable costs are less than the maximum that otherwise could be recovered. Your Profit Oil payments are too low.