Member Info for PUTUP

Average Brent $70.747
Average daily production 41,200

GKP cost recovery $18.3m
GKP profit oil $8.2m
less GKP capacity building charge $3.3m

Estimated receipt for August $23.2 plus $4.2 in relation to arrears. (Current arrears balance is worth 15.5p per share.)

Expect the company to start the buyback next. Another dividend with the final results for the year.

When I invested the company had an enterprise value well below the cost recovery pool and arrears. All you needed to believe was that the oil price would recover enough to allow the company to recover these prior expenditures and billings. (Not dissimilar to the situation at the time of its restructuring.) Now the company trades at a significant premium to these items. Obviously this makes valuation confidence that much more difficult. The present value of monthly receipts of PO - CBC approx $5m certainly isn't a lot per share. It would be very interesting to model the R factor and to see just how close it is to 1 now. Anyone had a go at this?

I'm still annoyed I was forced to take some money off the table at 183p as a result of the dividend. I don't like the idea of reinvesting at much higher levels. Oh well. I guess I can't complain in the grand scheme of things. But that 17p per share could have earned another 16% during the short period we wait for its receipt. Buybacks!

And very nice to hit 3x my investment cost. Carry on.

As expected. (79% is recovery of costs incurred by the pre-restructuring predecessor. Thanks LTH.)

"The art of negotiation is completely lost on you, isn't it?"

Nope

"He will have one eye on his shareholder base and another on his upcoming dialogue with the MNR"

That states the obvious

"But right now all the MNR can see is him taking money out of their only asset without any serious commitment to the future development of the field."

The company has the money already. And will be paid more. The company has excess equity capital.

"He'll probably want to restructure his debt arrangements if he wants to do the latter."

The company can fund expansion through additional debt. The existing debt can only be repaid with bondholder consent. Don't expect that to happen anytime soon. (At best expect it to accompany an approved FDP that has shareholder buy-in for expansion, ie suitable returns, and the issuance of a new bond.) When the FDP is approved the company will have to approach all capital providers with the expansion plan and its capital needs. Until then the company should run a more optimized balance sheet. The company should not hold onto cash now for a plan that is yet to be approved and with unknown returns. The fact that the company is returning capital today is of marginal consequence - at best - to any FDP plans.

"‘…there may be opportunities to consider further distributions to shareholders and to optimise capital structure.’
This man is clearly setting his stall out so everyone around the table can see and feel his power in the upcoming FDP discussions"

Optimising capital structure has nothing to do with the FDP. He is under pressure from key shareholders for this. The company could easily return another $100m today - even before upcoming months' receipts. Expect this in the form of buybacks and another special dividend at end of the year.

Shame we all sold some at 183p: good luck reinvesting dividends # of shares x 17p at 183p or better. Would have been much better if the $50m was distributed via a buyback to those wanting to sell.

I'm still waiting for surreyscott to tell us who all these "large Institutions" and "Hedge Funds" are....

"Nor do the large Institutions and Hedge Funds who are falling over each other to buy shares. "

My bet is Barclays is just the Prime Brokerage unit funding another stakeholder. In December last year this stake was 2.58% and 3.02% in Aug. As you note Precision Capital is the only institutional shareholder to have significantly increased their shareholding. It's a shame they're so small.

"Another major GKP shareholder who I think have re-invested the dividend is UBS Group AG"

Institutional or an individual UHNW or a collection of HNW? In my opinion the largest Institutional holder is Blackrock.

Edit "star" should be "stake"

"The increase in the shareholding since then means to me that the new owners"

Not new - the same. The account and it's filing name shifted (with the acquisition of the nominee) but the star owner is the same. And, yes, likely via dividend reinvestment. Note other key shareholders banked the dividend (and in fact were diluted by new share issuance). DYOR (and dig deeper).

3 August 2020

1. Lansdowne 15.47
2. Hof Horneman 8.27
3. UBS Group 4.41
4. Sothic/renamed Astaris/ Koomen 16.48 (stake distributed to fund capital providers on windup)

13 August 2021

1. Lansdowne 15.23
2. F van Lanschot Bankiers 11.18
3. UBS Group 6.9
5. Koomen 4.71 (individual)

(Blackrock came into 4th place)

"share register declaring Koomen with 4.71% of GKP's stock, and a Dutch based private wealth fund holding another 11.2 %"

This has been the case for quite some time. The individual behind this stake clearly shifted his account from Hof Horneman to F van Lanschot Bankiers. This individual is one of the few top holders that have increased their ownership over time. (10.29% to 11.18%) Nothing to see here.

"I reckon that the best chance we have of getting a fair, market price at a sellout is if some of the top dogs running Kurdistan have substantial holdings in GKP. Lets pray that they have."

Best of luck with that (conspiracy) theory. All stakeholders with 3% or more are listed on the company's website.

"Is Gertjan Koomen the largest shareholder in GKP including his nominee account(s)?"

No

Nothing wrong with debt. It can raise returns to equity significantly. Just don't want too much should it risk the company's survival. For now the company has cash in excess of its debt. It incurs the negative spread (interest rate on cash less interest rate on debt) for no leveraging of returns to equity. Pay the excess liquidity out through buybacks and dividends.

Guess who's back? Four posts all saying the same thing...

They're obliged to update the market as soon as they have price sensitive news. It'll happen whenever it does. The timing of the dividend is irrelevant to such.

So nufc9 if you were appointed as an advisor to help sell the company which companies would be on your short-list of buyers (specific companies not generalisations) and what would be the key rationale for each to buy? I wonder if your list matches mine.

(Every company in existence might be a potential takeover candidate at some point. What matters is who would be interested in buying and for what reasons. If there are compelling suitors you can likely be sure they've been pitched the idea.)

"if it were 80% and recognisably so by our hosts, don't you think the company, iR and our new CEO would have made that crystal clear at an AGM, better still, a banquet, a banquet serving Cristal champagne with cherry's on top? I know I would if I were him."

Why would you celebrate something that hasn't changed?