Member Info for PUTUP

"Are you saying that there was a global recession 2011-2015? because of OP?"

Errr - no.

Ahead of the GFC oil had rallied into the $140. It subsequently crashed into the $30s, recovering slowly with the rest of economic activity over subsequent years, but facing yet another crash in 2014.

In the UK we don't feel the affect of oil price changes nearly as much due to the massive taxes embedded in the pump price. In the US there's a much more direct correlation between spot and pump price and swings there hit family budgets.

I certainly wouldn't be investing in GKP solely on the grounds of grandiose expectations as to future OP rises from here. $70-80 is about as Goldilocks as it can get for us. I'll take any windfall that comes my way but if the stock gets hyped on the back of potential enormous rises I will use it as an opportunity to trim.

PS: don't underestimate the likelihood that Biden sees another term (even if the mid-terms swing against the Dems which they likely will)

Sell the rumour, buy the fact.

50m barrels released by the US. Other countries including China and the UK joining. Over to OPEC. Don't underestimate the demand destruction that occurs above circa $80 Brent.

I just estimate the net and it came out correct

(70.74714 - 50)*31*41,200*0.2*0.8/1000000 = 4.2

But agree this is for modeling purposes only. Monthly variances are to be expected.

I doubt you will see any dividend news before the year-end results. But I do expect buybacks before then.

"@PUTUP, both the export and arrears payments were slightly higher than I had calculated."

Only $200k more than I had for the month based on 41,200. Rounding error. The $4.2 was as I expected.

Cash as of Sep 1 was $177m. They've received $87.3m since and paid out $50m in dividends. I haven't bothered to work out opex, direct G&A, capex and corporate overhead since Sep 1. You can do your own calculation. However cash likely sits at close to $200m. Expect buybacks soon.

No surprises there. Arrears now down to a trivial 14p per share (even less fully diluted). September should have been an even better month. Average oil price 5.3% higher, shorter month but better average daily production expected. Carry on.

It's interesting, perhaps, to note that the weekly Brent last day finance chart BZ=F reached a post late 2014 peak in the week of 30 September 2018 of $86.72, plummeting back into the $50s shortly thereafter. Three weeks ago the same hit its recent peak - at $86.72. Personally I'd rather see a steadier price at or just below these levels than a dramatic spike higher which led to dramatic demand destruction and a collapse in price thereafter. Steady has she goes.

Sechin, now there's a trustworthy fellow. Not.

There's a lot of chatter about spiking spot prices and constrained supply, but normally when the oil market is facing a supply challenge we don't see such steep backwardation as currently exists. You can buy oil one or two years forward and yield in excess of 10% if the spot price remains constant. When producers are paying such a steep price to sell/hedge forward it suggests the pressure on spot is coming from a spike in current demand and not from a constraint in medium term supply. Could it be temporary price inflation as we are experiencing currently in so many areas? Who knows, but the abnormally steep backwardation suggests producers are paying large to reduce risk going forward.

Wishing upon a take out is a risky way of investing. Do it if you must but caveat to the unaware the risks of such. The Kurds are those with the most to gain from a stable, undisturbed, relationship with GKP right now.

Meanwhile, the company steadily converts the CRP to cash and distributes this 'special' cash flow, for another 3Q. Thankfully, the stock is still cheap and there's room for good appreciation if the PoO remains strong.

"In the last 10 years or so, meteorologists have identified"

CCC. I think you miss the point. El Nino and other seasonal weather patterns, the jet stream etc have been known for a lot longer than the last decade. But increasing temperatures and other climate change driven factors are influencing them in ever-increasing fashion. The jet stream, for example, has been identified as being destabilised by 'recent' climate changes. While I agree with the sentiment that some (not all) young think the world is going to end soon it is important that the young are taught what we now understand are the profound impacts of industrialisation, deforestation etc for it will be up to the young to invent and implement the changes necessary. It is the recently 'young' that are driving the inventiveness behind the technology in renewables. (I heard a stunning statistic yesterday. Currently renewables produce just 12% of US energy needs. Equity strategists expect this to increase to 40% in just 10 years, a stunning change. Why? That change is not expected to be driven by pious responsibility goals but rather by ECONOMICS. The cost of renewable infrastructure has fallen to an extent that it makes economic sense - money - for energy suppliers and consumers to make the switch. Things can move fast when profits are to be had.)

The company has listed its ordinary shares via a 'standard' listing on the LSE. If you trade via the LSE (via SETS) you are trading directly in the company's ordinary shares (not an interest in a pool of such shares). (The company also has a DR scheme.)

Correct except for the reference to depositary interests.

"Their is no legal obligation for anyone to declare their holdings....."

Simply incorrect

Straycat, it isn't so easy. If any nominee has a single owner or group of owners exceeding the reporting threshold they're required to report them separately. And if shareholding's aren't disclosed, the holders don't get to vote in any corporate action. So, yes, you can conceal identity to an extent (e.g. Lanschot Bankiers - even though the company is likely very well aware of who the individual is here) but not enough to support conspiracy theory (the "hidden 40%"). Of course were there to be an offer for the company the disclosure threshold become even more stringent.

BangGone, it's mostly clear skies and 11c - in Chiswick.

13-Aug 15-Sep 15-Oct

Lansdowne Partners Austria GmbH 15.23 15.22 15.22
F van Lanschot Bankiers 11.18 11.19 11.19
UBS Group 6.90 6.68 5.25
Blackrock 5.04 4.75 4.62
Gertjan Koomen 4.71 4.71 4.71
Hargreaves Lansdowne 4.33 4.25 4.10
Interactive Investor Trading 3.83 3.84 4.03
Dimensional Fund Advisors 3.62 3.65 3.73
Precision Capital 4.24 4.24 4.24
Barclays Bank 3.02 3.06 3.16

Total Top 10 62.10 61.59 60.25

Still waiting for an answer from surreyscot

If you guys spent a lot less time bickering and more time buying we'd all be better off. Even a little analysis rather than adynata would go a long way.

The hurdle was a simple IRR of equity value growth. It's not hard to calculate and see that the threshold was met. Whether it was a useful tool for retaining or motivating management is a whole different question. Those who restructured the company clearly felt at the time that it was necessary. Personally I think the LTIP needs restructuring, but I don't deny its existence. In the same manner, I don't deny the fact that the VCP exists and its thresholds were met. There's still some time until the next test for the VCP but as of now I expect another grant comparable to the one that happened earlier this year. C'est la vie.

You missed the point. To make your comparison below valid you need to adjust today's share price for all the distributions (on a per share basis) between those dates. You also need to adjust for the dilution of stock issuance as the bulk of it has been for no capital raised (penny options). In addition, production and the oil price accrue to both equity holders and bondholders. Hence you need to look at the enterprise value of the firm and not just the equity value. Then (and only then) you will have made a valid comparison.

How much money was paid out of the company to shareholders in the form of dividends and buybacks between those two dates?

Which ones weren't?

Keeping real is recognising that there will be another issuance next year because they were. FD share count is 224.254 million. Best use that number when employee options are penny options.