Of course the strange thing is if you are right and Corbin became pm, it would be good for us not only because god might rise a little bit, but the pound should knee jerk tumble, tho of course the flip side is higher cgt. Whereas if Boris wins, as currently looks more likely, then the pound should rise, denting Cey. Gold is already down 7% in sterling in the last month from the rising pound and it is the sterling price that in the end affects the stirling profit and sterling dividend. Luckily for us the Cey dollar price has risen a quarter with expectation the worst is behind..... prof and Uncertain always reminded us of the importance of looking at gold not just in dollars
Mr Bond, Occam’s razor would suggest the simplest explanation for the gold price is likeliest, which is that it is a result of whether more people think it will go up or down, compared to shares/bonds/money, so more buyers or sellers. Research shows events only affect gold very short term (futures too provide huge liquidity and froth in price finding short term) but it is the above that correlates longer term. So gold is hopefully in a bull market as real interest rates fall, it rose too fast and needed to come back, it is currently in a range so the moves are noise and we’ll see which way it breaks out. The Cey price is also dependent on what people think the share price will do, but here we have the metrics and discounted future profit to go on. Pardy had got the bad news out so that was in the price, or more than so, so the actual results were no worse than expected, but the big thing was forward guidance said this was just one quarter, and the full year would be just on track, with a yield of 6% underpinning the shares. As said before the market opened on the morn, our price should head north, but gosh it is volatile nearly doubling from 79 to 154, losing 30% and now up 10% and rising all in a few months and all imho. Good luck all, as what you need with gold price.....we are all gambling on economics,
Amazing that in Hoc results this am show their production to date, and aisc for Year, not dissimilar to Cey, but Cey capitalisation 30% more and Cey have the huge profit share to pay out to emra, so either Hoc should soar, Cey tumble, or the market believes Cey production will be back way over 500k soon, and they will never get profits out of Argentina. Hoc realised average gold price over $1500 this quarter, I can’t believe Cey only made $4m free cash flow on that sales price, would they even be breaking even with gold a bit lower now? No wonder Pardy had to go.
Stinky aisc, $1141!! (They day due to lower production), appalling free cash flow given the rise in gold price of only $4m!! So on that basis we would tumble further BUT
They say October much better, still expect to make up production and get to bottom end of production guidance and top end of aisc, which would mean if kept going next year and gold price holds our share price should be higher nets year (unless market tumbles so overall PE’s fall and gold doesn’t rise. Imho
Of course you are right and I could not disagree that futures, which started as hedging, is full of wild speculation, but speculation based on where people expect fundamentals to go, ie oil embargo’s reducing supply, rising economy increasing it, weather affecting cocoa etc. Of course in gold fundamentals are more esoteric as based on view of world worry and interest rates, also of course efforts were made to manipulate silver (easier than gold as smaller) but killed the Hunts, tho also because of rule change. However I overall still agree with Bryn that the wild speculators add masses of liquidity to a market that is ultimately driven by fundamental supply and demand. And that conspiracy theories, as in the 30’s of a few hook nosed men manipulating all the world financial markets, leads to a very unfortunate place
Bryn, I quite agree, the people who buy futures also have to sell them, as in any futures market (I have made films about them, so spent time in different futures markets around the world), many commodities have many times more paper than the actual thing,(total $1.2quadrillion Worldwide) but as you say although there can be short term aberrations in the end it is supply and demand, though with gold the extra production due to rising price is only tiny, so mainly a question of demand, and that is how safe people and countries feel, and real interest rates, as we have seen.
The frightening thing is how after a big recession like 2008 we get populist leaders, undermining the fourth estate which is a vital pillar of democracy, and a rise in conspiracy theories about everything, including the gold market or even the Centamin price, plus blame it all on the Jew/the continental worker/immigrants. Whether you feel pro or anti Brexit the stirling of all the above is truly frightening, imho, so believing in fundamentals doesn’t only make better sense but is not bolstering the fear of the time. Imho
At current gold price Centamin profit should be around £100m, after profit share which is like tax, and gives a pe of around 14, which is low for goldminers so would help the likes of Barrick. Plus political dangers are less than Argentina, Mexico, much of Africa, as Barrick found in Tanzania with Acacia, and Glencore in Congo, Sizi is a strongman and looks to be around for a while. And with new owners, and well managed, production could recover. I would buy it if I had a billion and a bit but as it is have bought .05% and happy to hold. Even happier to see so many selling out, even Tiger, as that means fewer investors to sell and more to buy back. However I don’t expect a takeover bid with the court case etc and Egypt an unknown for other miners.
I have Ring them many times. They have said variously they didn’t get the money from Centamin, other brokers pay before they get the money and finally they would absolutely 100% pay out yesterday by close of play. All totally untrue. Now their complaint team is investigating yet again. Please all Barclay holders call and lodge a complaint too. Absolutely hopeless
As ever great to hear from you Siko, and thanks for confirming the BBC and FT view from their Egyp correspondents, anecdotally from the ground, that this is unlikely to affect government or trouble our share price. Sisi appears entrenched and Sukari a long way from any demonstrations? Now if Cey gets to £2 we should all pledge to make a decent donation to your wonderful charity. All the best and please keep posting!
Sorry Tibbs just read yours post, but a while back you did **** off journalists on the basis of your wife’s experience. I am so pleased that you are defending the BBC which is so essential now. Apologies again.
mick-b, absolutely. By far the most worrying thing that we are living though is the death of the fourth estate. Trump et al, helped by the Russians, have managed to use their fake news to tarnish the serious press - New York Times, Washington Post, Times, Guardian, and BBC, so now people believe bogus news and don’t trust the real thing. For me this is by far the biggest danger the West faces. The BBC has incredibly strong editorial rules and a very robust editorial policy unit but even many on this board from Mizolgit to Tibbs have been misled to mistrust it. It is the cleverest way of undermining our democracy and far the most depressing thing about reading this board. There are many like Tiger, Prof and Uncertain who understand the importance of truth but sadly clever politicians are winning the false news war. I rely on the BBC to tell me as it is in Egypt and to help my view of Cey. IMHO.
A few points, Boris Johnson hasn’t helped the price of gold, Trump, Hong Kong etc have. Johnson has lent a bit of currency benefit to mining shares, but not nearly as much as May, but POG is far more important and its fall after Trump’s election outweighed the currency’s effect as now. The UK stockmarket is down not up despite the currency contribution of Johnson.
Gnome the EU is not run by an unelected bureaucracy but just like other democracies including your beloved Oz by a bureaucracy answering to an elected government - just bigger like USA, and the European council of elected leaders (well perhaps not ours)
As regards an abnegation of democracy, in Britain we have a representative democracy, we elect representatives who then decide. If they had followed what the majority want we wouldn’t have given up the death penalty or legalised homosexuality. We did have an advisory referendum (not a plebiscite) on whether or not to leave the eu, (won narrowly appealing to the public with extra money for the nhs which is no longer there,, and worry about non eu immigration that we can control anyway,). but not how we leave which is up to representative parliament
The most depressing thing to me at the moment is not if we leave the EU, - who knows what will happen and the law of unintended consequences, my vote was for other reasons. It is how politicians have undermined the fourth estate that holds them to account, so painstaking journalists on the likes of the FT, the Guardian, the London and New York Times, that uncover so many scandals. That is why the fake news used in the referendum campaign , on which some votes were based, is so upsetting, and the insulting of journalists whipped up by populists, that comes out from all sides here.
I may have voted either way for different reasons and respect both sides just as I respect those who see cey rising and it falling. Now chaps to matters this board is about, when do we see gold and cey taking a breather, where next? The question for this board is how politic impinge on cey price. If we get a deal presumable sterling will shoot up and cey down by an equivalent percentage.
Of course if we do a brexit deal conversely sterling should soar and cey should come back
And a Chinese trade deal should make gold tumble at least for a bit
So we need to have a worse world to get richer
Or as tiger said last week a better one and be poorer
My ISA and SIPP are full so I hold half my cey outside these wrappers. This dividend income exactly take me into the £100-120k income spot where you lose your personal allowance thus paying an extra 20% on the cey dividend above normal dividend tax
Does anyone sell the day before it goes ex div, ie tomorrow and buy back the next morning at what should be a lower price by the amount of the dividend? Then having received no dividend pay cgt on the reduced purchase price when shares are eventually sold? Only a though, probably more trouble than it’s worth as cey often doesn’t fall the full amount of the dividend plus there is the spread etc and better to keep life simple.