Member Info for Pushmepullyou

Yes but the cost of getting eash ounce out of the ground was $100 lower so comes to same thing and that doesn’t take into account reduced ounces mined and increased profit share. So pe which is over 20 now was lower then. The market has righty reacted to fewer ounces mined at greater cost per ounce, which needs a gold price around $150 higher than then to male same profits, or nearly $1400. Ouch

Yes production is forecast to recover a bit next year, but sadly costs are projected to rise again more than obviating the small production recovery, so by my reckoning gold has to be about $150 higher than 2017 to get us back to those profit levels (and share price)

These results are as expected for 2018, so surprised the shares have come back up recently by more than the rise in gold would warrant, (gold rise $50 profits up around 15% other things being equal, For 2018 the profit was always going to be way down so the dividend more than halved, since the news of the mining problems last May, and more news of them carrying on in the autumn, plus increased profit share to Egyptian government. At a share price in the 130's it looked like the 2018 pe would be 30+ which is very demanding. Overall with the rising aisc and falling production since 2017 gold needs to be around $150 higher for the same end profit and back to a reasonable PE.
All that should have been in the price.
The disappointment is the forecast is exactly the same for next year (slightly higher production offset by higher aisc). But if gold could rise $150 we would be back where we were, and it is already up around $60 of that. So the share price feels a bit high and hopeful, with gold at this price,(PE around 25) just as it did at these levels after the May profit warning. I wonder what those who called cey down to the 90's at last May profit warning, before which it was around 160, so about 40% fall, think now. 40% now would be the lower 80's, but if gold rises.....then we should be back.
And when comparing to Hoc which has similar capitalisation CEY's figures actually loo retainer good
Plus I love they return all profit to shareholders rather than more useless holes in the ground
And the yield of 4%, albeit with cover of just 1, isn't bad and should be the same next year if god prices stay where they are (slightly lower expected profit offset by slightly higher price)
Excuse the ramble but trying to work it out, others do correct me.

Neither here nor there, as expected

We will

Quite so. like so many of the gold ‘pumdits’ with something to sell, always saying gold will soar, of course randomly they should be right about half the time. And the Kinesis gold backed crypto that never makes a difference. The only one I now follow is Gary Wagner, but then he has nothing to sell, he has called the falls pretty well, including last autumn, and now sees us in a wave 5 that will take gold above its previous high in next two years. Do hope he is right.

The dividends are in my pocket
Retained profit isn’t and can be lost

Just to say I for one would not appreciate a share buy back as I consider Cey shares are worth more so they would be being bought back on the cheap
I don’t think it is managements responsibility to support the share price or otherwise, but their job is to make profits, pay dividends and plan a future where they can increase both, then the market can decide on the short term share price, but if management get the above right in the long term the share price will rise.
I appreciate the profits being returned to us in great dividends if less this year.
So please management don’t start peeing out rns’s of start buybacks but get in with the job, thanks

Halfpenny can you post the links to the Reuter’s and Morningstar jo Morgan downgrade as I can’t find it. Thanks

the latest I see on the broker rating tab above is from just 4 days ago RBC Capital Markets Outperform raised from 200.00 to 255.00 an Upgrade,if I read it right, so halfpenny what date is yours?

halfpenny last I can see is from Oct 18th 2 months ago:
18 October 2018,
JP Morgan Cazenove today upgrades its investment rating on Hochschild Mining PLC (LON:HOC) to neutral (from underweight) and cut its price target to 190p (from 215p).

but what is more important is what will they say about 3 rate rises next year

yes

Of course we would like more info but it is companies that give updates not pr departments who just publish them for companies, and traditionally Centamin has given quarterly preliminary results, and quarterly results like other miners, as more frequent would be noise. Some aim companies fire off RNS's all the time to try too influence the share price, for us longer term holders thus is not helpful. Centamin gave forward guidance last time saying we were returning to normal, there has been no runs saying anything abnormal has been happening, and we have to wait till mid Jan to see how much they have fulfilled it. Ever hopeful

Of those I have followed I think AM has been the most consistently unreliable gold salesman, imho, his wolf cry that it is always about to soar has to randomly one day be right, and let’s hope this time, but so far it has sadly been wrong.
On a more fundamental and realer basis, that can actually explain what we see, it is tentatively beginning to look as tho the US economy might be slowing, yield curve reversing, interest rates may not rise so fast, if this scenario holds lets hope 2019 starts like 2016, sadly don’t think because of another AM red herring,last time a gold backed crypto if I remember this time Basel or some such, saying buy buy buy now. All imho and others of course rate him maybe as they like the sound of gold about to soar as it has fallen back, to mitigate the misery. Well as said let’s hope the fundamentals are finally coming good....

Many chairman pursue short term profit, take it while you can, it is the same profit sooner, and as all profit paid to us in dividends anyway, doesn’t bother me, especially if production is as usual next year. For long term holders the bumps of up and down don’t matter, it is the profit and dive that count, which will eventually be reflected in the share price.
UNCERTAIN what are you in apart from children’s houses?

Then why wasn’t cey price 130 with gold at these levels on the way up, or higher given then there were no production cutback, cheaper oil and lower profit share. In fact the price of cey was lower on gold’s way up than now. Why I think the price is assuming production back to normal next year or cey share price would be lower. The only thing that to me justifies the current share price is UNCERTAIN’s diapog (gold price in a basket of currencies) and hope for the future as dividend will be v down the market is assuming just this year.

Mr Tibbs, same old story but not based on facts, if you look back at the figure cey made it up through 100 in May 2016 when gold was near 1280. Now we have to pay higher profit share and oil is much more. The share price now is comparatively good compared to lower price of gold compared to back then, higher oil price now, and higher profit share now. The company has done well, it was a production blip that is more than out of the share price, and the price now reflects back to normal production and our management who pay such good dividends. That is why I hold or add, why do you? So cey has fallen less than many rivals in last year, is higher than historically at this gold price, but the market remains worried about gold demand in the face of rising interest rates, once those end we should be away.

Mr Tibbs I think the cey loss in value over this year has been roughly equivalent to other gold miners. So although the production cut gave the shares a temporary hit, they are now discounting a return to normal and one could say virtually all the lower share price is now due to the lower gold price and mining inflation. And these are sadly not the fault of management but supply and demand.

Quite probably