Member Info for Pushmepullyou

tho of course profits down a bit with first half gold and silver prices

It is profit that matters and sadly the price of gold is not the only factor. I was looking at the Hoc 2006 ipo prospectus yesterday, and it is amazing how much costs have soared - over 5 fold, and mines are a wasting asset, usually produce less over the years and become (much) more expensive to run as metal is harder to get, just look at Hoc’s Arcata. Some of Hoc’s silver has break even at $15, some like Arcata even higher, hence mothballed. So $800 on price of gold only takes us back to 2006 costs. Look at Hoc’s resulting tiny profit and very high PE last year, which is why the share price is only a little under for these pm prices and cannot be compared to a couple or a few ago when making big profit on lower gold price. Which is why the Hoc report makes so much emphasis on getting aisc below $1000 gold equivalent, and why I think Hoc such an exciting investment as so very geared to a rising price.

To add to the mix remember Hochschild has mothballed Arcata till PM prices rise, if they rise more, and these higher prices hold, this mine could contribute to much better profits and a higher share price

Silenthawk, I agree with Prof etc. You can never get the timing exact, it is only a fool who tries, but Centamin a good share with a great dividend so good to be in, especially given the RNS forward view, and in a few months time your purchase should look good; I, like Prof and Tiger, expected gold to fall on the news of the interest rate cut as positions closed, but although it might come back a little more I expect it to rise longer term as do they, on the big debt/low or negative interest rates/trade wars etc, gold seems to have found a momentum, plus Centamin seems back on track. 130 would have seemed a great purchase point a few times over the last 3 years and will again I do believe.

Gold down immediately to 1420 as expected on predicted quarter point rate cut, and sell the news, however I think this will be short lived and gold should rise again, particularly as the qe stop has been ended two months early implying even more liquidity. so Bryan this time I am hopeful.we shall see....

A bit like cey last year but worse. Did you see the appalling drop in profits and rise in costs p, which would suggest shares may have a bit more to fall. Like Centamin’s profit warning, Fres management say a couple of years to get back on track when they will be very out of fashion with low dividend and collapsed profit, plus very high political risk. My only upside hope, hidden in the way they are now accounting for capital expenditure as income, is they are trying to reduce profit to look poorer just now, to the new socialist regime. Buying now is like buying cey on the way down at 115. There was more to lose but if you hang on you make money. I never try to time the market, so am happy to buy now and have a look at what they e done in a couple of years. Just my thoughts , and Prof?

If I am reading it right the interim dividend is a whopping 3%, and at 4 cents highest ever??

not very good on initial reading - compared to last year's lousy first half: 8% more ounces produced (though 2% less sold) ; cash cost of production up 17%, though raised AISC flat and last first half hasn't gone up further, but AISC at $ 940 is towards top of guidance which is still the figure I look at most (what was horrendous in Fres this week). The key metric profit down ANOOTHER 26% so not your hoped for £100m but £59m before tax. So on that basis we would have another tumble.

HOWEVER the forward guidance is back to normal with strong production and increasing cash flow predicted for second half and going forward, so hopefully market will look forward as it should, ...and believe the board. And good interim divi of 4 cents.much improved on last years 2.5 cents. So hopefully we should even be up a bit, but now awaiting the fed today

not very good on initial reading - compared to last year's lousy first half8% more ounces produced (though 2% less sold) but cash cost of production up 17% though raised 1isc last first half hasn't gone up further, but is towards top of guidance which is still the figure I look at most (what was horrendous in Fres this week).The key metric profit down ANOOTHER 26% so not your hoped for £100m but £59m before tax. So on that basis we would have another tumble.

HOWEVER the forward guidance is back to normal with strong production and increasing cash flow so hopefully market will look forward as it should, and believe the board. And good interim divi of 4cents.much improved on last years 2.5 cents. So hopefully we should even be up a bit, but now awaiting the fed today

Prof on another note the gold price is more important to profit than marginal differences in expectation of future production. So I think the fed meeting may outweigh the company statement, unless we get something unexpected form Centamin. ...to the good side

Prof, gold only £4.50 short of its sterling all time high, less than a third of a percent.

Interestingly cey peaked in jan 2017, somewhere around 175p, when dollar/sterling fell to 1.23, sterling’s rebound in the next two years, on hope of a soft Brexit agreement, accounted for around 13p of cey’s fall, but now sterling is back down again we can compare the cey share price then and now directly; cey is around 30% lower than Jan 2017, but net income is down from $214m to $74m, so far bigger fall; happily our shares are not down two thirds as last year’s net income was considered an aberration, let’s hope so. As said with current info 120p seemed a fair value a couple of weeks ago, but with the latest fall in the pound and current gold price now a few per cent higher imho. Of course we have the delayed forward statement, hopefully tomorrow, but I do not hold out a lot of hope in that, tho hope I am wrong and it boosts us, and the Fed cut which will probably be a quarter % , with slightly gentler forward guidance, resulting in a knee jerk drop in gold, but then a rise on consideration, hoping so, so we can continue our march back to the 160’s and hopefully beyond.

I take into account the profit and the PE, I don’t think the market notices the court case or the price would be lower. I think that the reason the price is 2/3rds of its peak is that profits are still considerably lower as costs rose a lot and production down a bit. Why should the price be higher with such reduced profits? However if gold stays up, production recovers and costs thus fall, then we might get profits and so the share price back where they were. Finally if like me you bought originally around 50p, or for you probably considerably lower, you could always take profit and shift to what you think is a better miner, I prefer Centamin and have for years. Good luck whatever

Yes it is strange to own a share, yet consider the company useless, why not in that case sell the share and buy in a miner that one thinks better managed? I continue to hold as Cey doesn’t waste too much on useless aggrandising exploration, but returns most of the cash to shareholders. Mines do have hiccups, gold eventually runs out, but cey is debt free, seems fair value, and pays a good dividend which should rise if gold does, as should the share price which is a geared play on gold for me.

Mr T: In the article I don’t think he said Sukari output could increase 20 times, but that if the laws were changed and became more advantageous, then Centamin could scale up and take on 20 times more production developing and exploring other mines in Egypt.

Probably the Telegraph questor tip, after the last one our share price tumbled

More metrics on our 3 legged stool, is this roughly right?
Ball park figures at: aisc $1050, production 480000 oz, pog $1300, profit after increased profit share (that hit profits as much as prod fall) around $60m
For every 5% aisc falls profit up $12m
For every 5% gold rises profits up $13m
For every 5% production rises (the hardest 5%) $12m
From today’s report Prod is up 5% giving profits up $12m
More important aisc should be down 10% but we don’t know as they give a wide prediction but at midpoint give extra $24m
But Gold is up 12.5% trouncing them and giving profits up $32m

If gold rises another 25% then our profit and share price should get back to its previous peak, I can’t see aisc or production doing anything like this.
Please do mend my figures
With gold at $1450 share price should be back at 120. Let’s see. At $1500 should be back to 133 imho

So profits up 68m

Where did you read Kees, did he say anything else?
Always worrying how expensive it is for the PM miners to keep production up long term, Berensford yesterday said Hoc’s biggest mine was running down resulting in a quick tumble, Fres has taken a big hit today with lower production already coming through, and all have rising costs especially to find new metal.... hence my thought that cey is around fair value at this gold price, till/if gold rises or costs fall

Snap!

The share price might be disappointing Tiger but why should it have moved? Nothing better or worse than the guidance of last time. Also I can’t see where it has the aisc for this first half, that the figures have always hed, only the same prediction for the year, . Can someone with better eyesight find them? And where is the promised 3 yer future production promised report?
With this guidance that says nothing different (actually a result for us) the shares should now move with gold, with their usual multiplier of around 3. Hence flat today. I am holding.