Member Info for Pushmepullyou

Great minds think alike, or yours is so anyway Porf!
Did you see Fres take a tumble on its results today with rising costs (and slightly lower production)
The problem is miners underinvest when PM prices are low, which also results in failing machine etc and lower production, and then have to spend more as the price recovers to replace old machines and find new ore.
A year ago our second quarter reported aisc of US$1,073 per ounce sold, a horrifying 29% increase QoQ (imagine if production had fallen that much). So I will be far more interested in aisc than production, hopefully recovering production pushes aisc down a bit, and then cost cuts a bit more, to get it back nearer $900 - that is equivalent to $173 on price of gold. No wonder our shares quite fairly fell out of bed and the price is where it was when gold was $170 lower 3 years ago. So I am going to stick my neck out for aisc of a very much lower $940 tomorrow, which would be good, nearer $900 would be great. Hope I’m not hopelessly wrong and it isn’t still $1073.
On another more hopeful note at least we sold less gold when the price of it was lower, so hopefully production will be back up just when we can sell each ounce for more, and it costs less to get out.
Only 7 hours to go...

Gold price now within 3% of its all time high in Sterling, such a shame mining costs have risen so much and seem to be rising further among other reporting miners. Without that, increased profit share and lower production, our share should have been within a few per cent of its all time high too. Why tomorrow so important. And assuaging the worry about why they didn’t put out report on future production in first half, as promised. Hoc, in which I also have a sizeable stake, also reports tomorrow, its share price has more or less tracked Cey mid term, tho one jumps or falls and then the other plays catch up. Hoc too has suffered rising costs and lower profit so it will be fascinating to see both tomorrow.
See you at 7am which is 11pm with me.

Can’t wait for Thursday.
Earnings per share and dividend are down three fold since 2016, on Barclays research centre, hence share price fall
The recent rise in gold will help but too late for the last half, and $100 mopped up by increased costs. And the increased profit share gobbles more.
So will cey have got production back up?
And even more, as Barclays Pont out today, gold miners have underinvested through this tough downturn, hence rising costs as they have to invest now. So as usual I will be watching the aisc closely. Will they have got that down again?
Cey seems to me around fair value now with the reduced output, increased aisc and profit share, resulting in the far lower profits and dividend, especially as have recently increased by 40%, 3 times faster than the price of gold as it should be, as the first $900 of the gold price used in costs, and half the remainder to Emra. Let’s just hope the news is upbeat rather than flat, and we don’t take/deserve another tumble. On tenterhooks....

Gosh Gnome are you a member of the anti Semitic Labour Party?. Funny, no sad, the way it goes round in a circle and you can bash gays, blacks Jews in turn, now the Jews but as the Sapiens author points out the gays’ turn is returning. When did the Rothschilds sell arms to both sides? Even in the American civil war they sold to one side and so Lincoln had to resort to my ancestors. However political views always interesting on the board when they relate to gold and our share price, (and thanks Gnome, unlike many hours do) so the lesson you take from Napoleon is the dollar will fall as the result of Trump’s antics and gold rise. Well so far the dollar has risen under Trump but let’s hope you are right for us Centamin shareholders sake, and thanks for the thoughts tho not the fashionable use of the Rothschilds as in the 1930’s to which we seem to be returning. Ps you are quite right about gold price under Napoleon which rose 25% in London and 10% in New York but quickly reverted after he went to St Helena.

Gold up 1%. Cey up 3%. Cey profits rise and fall 3 times the price of gold as cost of getting stuff out around 900 an ounce.

They are already paying out almost all their profit in dividend so the profit needs to rise for the dividend to rise, which is also challenging given the increased profit share. Thanks hedgehog from me too, also as your reply from the company looks encouraging on Profits getting back on track as says shares undervalued. fingersCrossed

Yes but profits, and so dividend were considerably higher. Since then increased profit share probably accounts for $50 on gold price, and reduced output and higher costs per ounce another $50 each. So golds rise hasn’t yet been enough to make up for the other things against us. Currently our share price seems about right to me considering Cey’s profit, and a PE that is higher than the market average even at this share price. The profit share will sadly remain higher, but if output recovers and cost fall back we should see a share price rise, likewise if gold rises further from here. But given all the news known now the current lower share price seems about right now. Roll on next quarterly results and let’s hope they are better...

I think a 40% gain in a couple of months is not bad. Well I am pleased and will be thrilled if it keeps going. Our share got a bit ahead of the others so has taken a pause while they play catch up so I think another buying opportunity but what would I know other than cEy has beaten most this rise and if it keeps gaining 20% a month I will be rather happy and even at half quarter or a tenth of that. But love all the whingers as when they return if figures are ok in a couple of weeks, we could motor. Of course lousy figures and tumbling gold...but the former partly built in

Yes I think with you that gold price may take a fall on Monday. However there is nothing unexpected in Trump and Xi’s words, they are a bit like last year strong on promise only, and world trade still seems under pressure so I expect and hope that the fall, if that is what happens, proves a brief buying opportunity. The market taking profit from gold now will be healthy and, as long as it holds above 1370, will hopefully lay the ground for onwards and upwards

Last year profits fell and for each share the company earned about 4.5p so sadly that is 4%, not very high hence my belief that the current share price is around fair value now till profits rise again. The unusual, large and increased profit share has a big effect which may not be accounted for in roe

From latest annual report:
Free cash flow of US$63.4 million in 2018, down 56% YoY, due to reduced volume produced and change in profit share ...meaning ...basic earnings per share ("EPS") of 6.5 US cents, a 22% decrease YoY, principally reflecting the scheduled ratchet from a 60:40 ratio to 55:45 (Centamin:EMRA) in the profit share mechanism

Good to read your thoughts Professor and.Market, as ever. I am waiting hopefully on the promised June future production update. Profit, and so fair value for the shares, depends on production, costs and price of gold. As said last week for me, given Cey’s considerable reduced profits, a rise from the 80’s to 112 seemed fair value given the rise in gold, and that is exactly the price cey got to. Now as gold rises further, cey profits and hence fair share price should rise about 3 times golds percentage rise. So if we are lucky enough that gold gets to 1500 cey should rise 20% back to the 130’s. But what we also need is production back where it was which should add about 20% to profits and the accompanying reduction in costs. If gold keeps motoring those three things should get us back to the 160’s. All three were against us last year. Here’s hoping on all three, so especially that June update.

Dear Mr T
No I am not part of the cey PR team. I am a retired investor who depends on how my shares do very much, for the future. Thus I find it very worrying when the gold price falls but try to understand why, and thrilled when it rises again. I have held a large percentage of my portfolio in cey since Jan 2016, so yes I am relatively new, but that doesn’t mean I shouldn’t post? I of course wouldn’t hold the shares if I didn’t believe in Cey, that doesn’t make me work for them, but a rational shareholder, as otherwise I would sell and buy another miner, but all seem to have suffered rising costs, and cey dividend is higher than most. I don’t understand why you are rude and unkind to me when I try to work out fair value for cey at current gold price and come up with around 112, based on market PE’s and expected future profit, or point out their costs have risen? I have long said the gold price will rise when real interest rates are expected to fall, and thus our shares, which is why I have been hanging on. It is one explanation that seems to fit the facts. I don’t object to others working out what they think the share price should, be based on future profit, especially if they are different to mine. It is others views that help me/us make decisions. I post when I buy, you have rudely said you disbelieve me before, I could send you contract notes or meet and give them to you, but it is unpleasant not to trust each other, and should we all do this? I welcome different views to this board, I wish you did too. As I said in my post the rise in gold above it’s 5 year high if it holds is very exciting, how many times has it been a false dawn, so good luck all including you of course dear Tibbs, who have held on.

Gold just through 1380, it has broken through a ceiling it has tried for 5 years, if this holds it is very good news Cey profits should rise about 3 times the rise in gold, so as around 90 was fair value with gold around 1280, 112 or so seems fair now, and higher if gold breaks higher, or if better news when we get the promised June future production prediction, or costs don’t rise further or even fall. Pleased so far with the large purchas at 79.8, and more at 96 but now fully loaded and fingers and toes very crossed as a lot to make back in a mining world with higher costs, which gobble up around $100 of golds rise compared to when the share was higher a few years ago. Good luck all who have held on

Wonder what will happen on Monday following the Mexico trade truce, as the dispute sparked gold soaring a week ago

Gold is trading at around a 3 month high this lunchtime, in sterling, and closing in on the 5 year high which is only a percent or two away. I live in UK so am therefore hanging on (tho costs are in dollars and Egyptian pounds have risen plus mining inflation inc oil on top, so gold needs to be higher than a year ago for profits to be the same for similar output)

Thanks Tibbs, I obviously wouldn’t invest so heavily in them if I didn’t think they were good, as gold mining is a tough, and most often values destroying, business facing rising costs, political dangers, things going wrong physically in even the biggest mining companies, and worst gold out of fashion. Cey were unbelievable a while back posting output projection and then immediately a cut but stuff goes wrong. Even worse Kees suggests lower output is secular. What I don’t understand is why anyone would hold this if they thought the company management was lousy against all these headwinds and not sell and buy a rival miner, even if there is potential for the court case to be resolved, in effect following Kees advice. I am probably bonkers to believe in the company and hold. Hey ho. All best

Well found Cowichan. Yes that turned out to be a good call, cey it turned out was undervalued in Dec, over the nest three months gold rose 10%, and cey its usual approx three times, so 30%. So if there was a buyback then would have been a least bad time . However I can reinvest my dividend in cey, or in something else, the choice is mine and I prefer that to buy backs. AMy way cey tumbled back as gold fell in the spring, so dec wouldn’t have been a good time for a share buyback.either. But great as usual that different members here have different views and needs.
Long term gold miners have way underperformed the gold price losing over 30 per cent over the past 10 years, compared with a 39 per cent gain for the largest gold-backed ETF. So overall buybacks wouldn’t have helped.investors, and lucky cey didn’t do it at double today’s price. Looking forward the challenge is that gold mining costs rise fast, and the miners have to find new gold so need a price hundreds of dollars more to do really well, while gold is currenty above its inflation linked price over the centuries . Worse miners are being the canary again just bow, presaging lower gold, we’ll see if they are right. The only good sign as when I am this gloomy.....
Good luck all

The new shares for bonuses are around 0.1% of existing shares so hardly significant They are for a year when Centamin was doing well

On a more positive note in sterling gold is within 1% of its 5 year high, and within about 10% of its all time high. Of course for miners that does not take account of how much costs have risen especially in dollars compared to sterling, so need a higher gold price for same profit and share price, but gold itself still holding value for us. UNCERTAIN how is it doing in terms of your multi currency diaplogs or whatever you called it?
As regards the CEY price move late last week I think others are right, many gold miners have been weakening n the last few weeks on reports from some of rising costs, and the shares also falling as price gold to fall. Cey is I think playing catch up after being surprisingly resilient.
Finally TIGER thanks for being so nice (as usual) about my granny’s first cousin.

If shares are undervalued and profits rising fast them buyback can make sense as Kirkland. However if shares are fair value (as cey’s forward pe would suggest) then there is little advantage other than for tax. In UK where many of us hold in Isas, tax free dividends can be more advantageous. Outside the isa I sell cey before divi day and buy it back, to pay cgt. In the USA tax regime buybacks can male greater sense. It also makes most sense for boards who are rewarded according to the share price, often at our expense, which is partly why so many in USA. So Cey board I, as others have written on this bulletin board, prefer the dividend. Just to say there are two views. Thanks.

Ps from investopedia: many investors applaud share buybacks because they see increasing EPS as a surefire approach to raising share value.But don't be fooled. Contrary to popular wisdom (and, in many cases, the wisdom of company boards), increasing EPS doesn't increase fundamental value. Companies have to spend cash to purchase the shares; investors, in turn, adjust their valuations to reflect the reductions in both cash and shares. The result, sooner or later, is a canceling out of any earnings-per-share impact. In other words, lower cash earnings divided between fewer shares will produce no net change to earnings per share.

Of course, plenty of excitement gets generated by the announcement of a major buyback as the prospect of even a short-lived EPS rise can gives share prices a pop-up. But unless the buyback is wise, the only gains go to those investors who sell their shares on the news. There is little, if any, benefit for long-term shareholder