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I was reading a summary of posters on financial boards and it was very interesting. In summary they fall into 3 categories:

Honest people - These people are positive on stocks, they reveal their position by their posts and based on their decision to buy and hold the stock their outlook is positive.

Dishonest people - These people post in a negative way. They are the types who will be bearish and negative not because they think a stock is bad but they want the price as low as possible. The moment they buy they go quiet and post no more, until that point they try to suppress the price with negativity. The moment in future they sell they are back posting in a negative way again. These people hate the Honest people, because not only are they trying to do the opposite of the honest people they also know deep down how dishonest they are in their own actions but greed for them in getting the price lower is the overriding factor.

Dreamers - These people have lost their money or no money to invest. They spend their time trolling or pretending to be short or long of a stock. Attention seeking, their lives are devoid of enjoyment or fun and so they seek to gain fame (infamy) on the internet by being a troll.

Given JOG have over 100 MMBO of discovered mean resources and then, over 300 MMBO of identified mean prospective resources - write that down - over 400 MMBO of discovered resources and identified prospective resources - currently 100% owned - its really crazy the market is currently valuing that at just 25 million pounds.

Which is the case if you take off the current cash, current tax losses carried forward etc... from the present 45 million pound market cap.

Even if you take 50% off for a farm out, JOG are left with over 50 MMBO of discovered mean resources and over 150 MMBO of identified mean prospective resources.

Perspective:

BPC currently with no funds to drill and no discovered resources at all - market cap 29 million. So BPC, who cannot drill as no funds, who have no oil.....are currently valued higher than JOG if you take off JOG cash and tax losses.

Gift horse springs to mind with JOG.........

They have around 4.5 billion barrels recoverable in different leads and prospects all over Block 4 and Block 5 and Block 20. They only give them names when they are planning to prepare them to drill ready status.

Block 20 alone has around 600 million recoverable barrels in different leads and prospects.

What I am pointing out quite simply is, from the first post of this thread........JOG have 119 MMBO proven. ECO have 36 MMBO proven. Thats fact.

The argument against JOG is they need to farm down or raise cash to get production. That same argument lies with ECO as well. ECO do not have the cash to take the assets to production. They too either need to farm down or raise.

So my answers were to the first post on this thread :

ECO does not have the cash to get to production. Farm down, sell out or fund raise needed.
JOG does not have the cash to get to production. Farm down, sell our of fund raise needed.

ECO have proven 36 MMBO for drilling so far (their share of Jethro).
JOG have 119 MMBO proven so far in the GBA.

ECO market cap is near 300 million pounds.
JOG market cap is less than 50 million pounds.

ECO has upside from other prospects which their percentage ownership would give them hundreds of millions of barrels.
JOG have upside from other prospects which their percentage ownership would give them hundreds of millions of barrels.

Are those facts incorrect - I am merely correcting the first post of this thread...........which is rather strange in itself as why are you discussing JOG on the ECO thread to start with ?

So ECO have cash for more drills, zero production and then their money runs out. With no income there will be massive shareholder dilution to raise money to further appraise and develop the assets into production before they get any revenue.....

Oh....of course this does not apply to ECO does it......... they magically can sell or farm out but no other company apart from ECO can do this. You do realise that magically selling out before the massive costs of getting into production is often quoted...............you do also realise that a minority holder like ECO HAS to pay when the operator wants more money. if the operator says we are going into production and everyone pays this much, ECO has to pay it, or lose out............and then they become a forced seller............

All small companies are in the same situation until they get income.

Buchan was in production for years, until the drop in oil price coincided with the need to upgrade the infrastructure for Health and Safety reasons, so with the low oil price the field was shut down. Now its part of the GBA redevelopment.

I strongly advise you read the PDF in the link below - you are so wrong with JOG.

https://ufile.io/k1e9wtbs

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You could not be more wrong if you tried to be.

JOG have a share of Verbier - which is still under appraisal. Verbier Deep and Verbier North West have not been tested yet, Equinor and the other partners are discussing now about how to proceed with Verbier and Cortina in 2020 in regards to further drilling.

They have just been awarded new licenses that have been drilled and have proven discoveries on them, which have been flow tested and/or in production in the past. This is PROVEN recoverable resources. Currently JOG own 100% of 119 MMBO of proven recoverable resources, they have 15 million cash, they have tax losses worth many millions of pounds to claim back on future production and............ for 119 MMBO PROVEN recoverable, for 15 Million cash plus tax losses, their Market Cap is just 45 million pounds. 119 MMBO recoverable of proven flow tested oil is value at just 25 million pounds really.

ECO currently have about 36 MMBO of oil from Jethro.............ECO market cap is now 277 million pounds.

ECO 36 = 277 million share price market cap
JOG 119 = 25 million share price market cap

So either ECO is massively pumped up, or JOG is massively undervalued.......... I would say JOG is massively undervalued.

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https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Petro-Matad-Oil-established-in-Block-XX.pdf

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Arden update on JOG after the interims.

https://ufile.io/eknqqzlh

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Excellent results and outlook.

Market cap is current below 45 million pounds for :

Mean recoverable resources of 119 MMBO which is 100% owned.

Cash of 15.5 million.

Considerable upside from exploration prospects.

I say again, that is crazy low........share price now should be well over 500p and so market cap nearer 100 million pounds.

Really, to get a true market cap of a company you add all its outstanding debt to the market cap, then deduct unllocated cash. That gives a much better read across.

So if a company has production and cash and their market cap seems low......maybe its because they have lots of debt. Only when you factor in debt does the true position show.

This is why a very basic read across companies to compare them is not possible unless you factor in everything.

Lots of news is due.

Next week Results RNS and update.
W/C 7th Oct Capital Markets Day in the city.
Anytime - Equinor news.

Either someone got hold of a potential Monday RNS and had a proofing read - or we are seeing a return of those who sold out earlier, now coming back for the deal news as it enters the final month and also after JOG have now been formally awarded the licenses and now legally they can enter into a deal.

Upstream still saying 4th well of the campaign is Velociraptor....but not saying if its going to be drilled this year or next........I still go for next year............ :)

Mike says Gazelle is 50% to 65% CoS......

https://www.upstreamonline.com/exploration/petro-matad-in-gazelle-1-spud/2-1-674681

Petro Matad in Gazelle-1 spud

19 September 2019 6:55 GMT Updated 19 September 2019 6:59 GMT by Steve Marshall

Petro Matad has spudded the Gazelle-1 exploration well at its Block XX onshore eastern Mongolia as it pursues a further discovery with the third probe of a four-well campaign.

The London-listed explorer is targeting a pre-drill prospective resource estimate of 13 million barrels of oil at the prospect, which is believed to be on trend with a pair of producing oilfields in PetroChina-operated Block XIX to the north.

The latest well is located 4.5 kilometres south-west of Petro China's T19-46-1 oil well and immediately updip of this discovery on the western flank of the Tamsag basin, which is the primary source kitchen for oilfields in Block XIX.
Petro Matad chief executive Mike Buck earlier told Upstream the company was “very excited” to drill Gazelle-1 as “reservoir quality improves farther to the west” on the acreage, with the well given a 50% to 65% chance of success.

The probe, which will be sunk to a total depth of around 2500 metres and has an estimated duration of 35 days, is being drilled about five kilometres to the west of the recent Heron-1 discovery using DQE International’s rig 40105 that also drilled the latter hole.

Petro Matad said, in the event of a discovery at Gazelle-1, there is likely to be sufficient time to carry out a well test before the winter shutdown of operations.

The company has though come up dry with the Red Deer-1 well drilled in the south of Block XX, with the fourth well of the campaign now lined up at the Velociraptor prospect - named after a dinosaur in the Jurassic Park movies - in its Block V in the west of the country that has prospective resource potential of as much as 200 million barrels.

Arden Partners flash update on JOG following todays news:

https://ufile.io/0qq26sub

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New presentation .jJust out along with todays news.........

https://www.jerseyoilandgas.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Award-Presentation-Sept-2019-vFinal.pdf

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Edison note is in the link below:

https://www.edisongroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Petro-Matad-Mixed-results-in-Block-XX-1.pdf

You will notice that Net Cash at end of Year 2020 (Dec 31st 2020) is forecast to be 1.5m US$

This is still based upon them drilling one well in Block V in 2020 and then zero production income, which is the current situation pending flow tests of Heron-1 and it being confirmed commercial.

Once that is done then the forecasts will be changed to then take into account revenue in 2020 from Heron.

The situation with forecasting now all hangs on Heron-1 proving commercial, from there then forecasts for 2020 will change dramatically.

PetroChina farm in has to be taken in then, and production income etc. etc. etc. etc... the outlook and status of MATD will be completely different once they have production.

We all now await the Heron-1 flow testing results - from there - things should fundamentally change for MATD as they more from pure exploration into being a producer of oil getting revenues from oil sales from Q1 2020 onwards.

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As its been brought it up I have run some figures to get an idea of the minor difference flow rates would have to valuations. Using 60US$ a barrel

Expectation is 200 bopd per well. You can discount down say 15% if the flow rate is a more conservative 100 bopd. You can mark up 30% if the flow rate is a more exceptional 400 bopd.

NPV10 based on Heron being 25 MMBO recoverable 145 million US$ = 118 million GBP circa 18p a share @200bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 40 MMBO recoverable 260 million US$ = 213 million GBP circa 32p a share @200bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 25 MMBO recoverable 124 million US$ = 102 million GBP circa 15.4p a share @100bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 40 MMBO recoverable 222 million US$ = 213 million GBP circa 27.5p a share @100bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 25 MMBO recoverable 189 million US$ = 118 million GBP circa 23.5p a share @400bopd per well @60US$ oil price

NPV10 based on Heron being 40 MMBO recoverable 338 million US$ = 213 million GBP circa 42p a share @400bopd per well @60US$ oil price

Running those figures with a 50% farm out to PetroChina who drill the development wells for that farm in cost......

25 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 200 bopd per well = 9p a share
40 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 200 bopd per well = 16p a share

Best case 40 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 400 bopd per well = 21p a share
Worst case 25 MMBO @60US$ @50% post farm out @ 100 bopd per well = 7.7p a share

Obviously those are just rough and ready bag of the fag packet calculations and there are other possible scenarios.......but I think it gives a good idea of where valuations can be post the flow test being carried out successfully.

I absolutely think PetroChina will farm in - they will not pay cash, they will drill x number of development wells for their farm in 50%.

At the current 5p level and with Gazelle-1 to come, and MATD having cash left over to develop Heron-1 into a producer if so needed.......its cheap if you ask me.

Apologies for any errors.....just bashing from figures around.

Soon be flying upwards on good testing results from Heron-1.

They pretty much 99% have one producer now with Heron-1 (awaiting testing). They also have funds to get this into production but I am quite certain we will see a farm out with PetroChina where PC farm in for 50% and drill a load of development wells. Perfect for PC and perfect for MATD. PC get to farm into Heron and better utilise their infrastructure and MATD get a free ride to significant production.

Gazelle should be another oil strike, so again, PC farm in to develop is most likely.

The way forward is very clear......and given Heron may be 40 MMBO recoverable, its very very valuable. NPV10 of 40 MMBO recoverable under this PSC is worth around 32p a share to MATD. Farm that out for free carry to development and you have value of 16p a share coming out.

Plenty of upside to come for MATD.

So what happens next ?

IMO:

Gazelle-1 spuds end of Sept.

Heron-1 testing starts early October.

Heron-1 exceeds expectations on flow rate.

Heron-1 is far bigger than Pmean estimates thanks to the structure being higher up and also better porosity. Heron-1 could be up to 40 MMBO recoverable.

Share price is around 9p levels.

Gazelle-1 strikes oil and reservoir is better than expected.

Share price over 10p levels.

Heron at 40 MMBO is worth 32p a share, Petro China farm in to Heron by agreeing to fund a bucket load of development and appraisal wells in return for 50% share.

Heron is then worth 16p a share to MATD but no development costs.

Share price now around 12p to 14p.....

Fund raising at 12p a share to drill the Raptors in 2020 and also some admin costs - MATD say this is the last one as now a production company and generating all their own cash from oil sales from Heron.

And now its 2020......time to go off to the Raptors........