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Another.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/14/neptune-energy-pays-215m-north-sea-assets/

30 MMBO for 215m.

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Funny now .....the company has stated clearly the expectation is 200 bopd following stimulation.

How the derampers are trying to say 200 bopd would be a big disappointment........ LOL..........no muppets, 200 bopd is in line with company forecasts of a producing well in Mongolia.

This is why its very important to take the wind out of their sales and ensure everyone is aware that 200 bopd AFTER a fracture stimulation is the target the company are aiming for for a single well on Block XX and Block V.

If that is achieved they have delivered.

Its not 200 to 300 bopd.

The target was 200 bopd following stimulation. That flow rate is a constant target all over MATD presentations for Blocks IV, V and XX.

This is onshore oil, using a pump.

So...........the company has predicted in its presentations 200 bopd per well following stimulation. The results of Heron-1 will be compared to that estimate given by them.

Clearly stated.......the change in opinion was due to multiple factors.

1/ Arden removing the cash spend in 2020 for Cortina drilling. This may suggest Equinor no longer prioritise p2170 work in 2020.

2/ Trade wars, global recession fears, political mess in the UK. General move in the market to cash.

At least the selling was openly stated and the reasons why. Things change......opinions change....... I still think JOG is a good long term play, hence keeping the 25% however.........it made sense to lock in profits on 75% which was averaging 70p levels a share buy in price.

I hope that Equinor do go for 2020 drilling in p2170 and am prepared to pay more to buy back in.......but due to global concerns at the moment the profits have been banked for a large amount and the cash is now sat there waiting, insulated from current short term factors.

Would have been easier to not say anything perhaps, but in the interests of clarity its best I feel to declare what you are doing - increasing or reducing.

Heron news the only guideline is.........should be before end of October. So might be another week, or two yet.......

A reminder:

Mongolian oil is very valuable. The PSC terms are rather wonderful......the oil has very high value in real terms to the producing company.

In case MATD do strike oil - then these are the PSC terms for Block XX

Petroleum Sharing Contract (PSC)

Royalty: Block XX 5%

Low cost in comparison to other jurisdictions
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Corporate tax: 0%

Speaks for itself, designed to encourage foreign investment

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Cost recovery mechanism:

Exploration, development and operations costs recoverable against oil production with annual cap of 40% of total gross revenue. The remainder is carried over. Transportation costs are recoverable

This really needs shouting about!! Costs of Exploration, Development, Operations and Transport can be recovered in the success case. The implication for this is that on any success, when coming to arrange finance, this puts the company in a very strong position. This is something quite special

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Contractor Profit oil split: Block XX 45% to 60%

This highlights just how aligned the Mongolian government is with the success case. Implications are to enable a significant cash flow from production

Quite a few lies being spread around the place about MATD........ see this one by taxibabe on ADVFN at the end of this post which has been responded to and corrected. Need to keep correcting the lies that those want the share price down keep spouting.

Pro_S2009 12 Oct '19 - 00:03 - 3820 of 3821

Don't you mean someone has to counter your lies and bull**** :) LOL

First of all, the Chinese do not have a refinery, they just have production infrastructure, which is simply where tankers pull up, offload their oil and then its pumped into the pipeline. Thats not a refinery.

That infrastructure is under utilised and talks have been had that MATD can unload their oil there and pay a fee to PetroChina for the use. As Mike Buck said, if PetroChina refuse the use of it, the Government will force them.

Why would the government do that ? Because MATD do not have to use the Chinese facility. If you knew anything about the Mongolian PSC terms you would know that all exploration, production AND SALES costs can be claimed back by MATD from the government from oil profits. That means MATD can truck the oil all the way to China and sell it......and claim back those costs from the government. That is why Mike said the Government would force PetroChina as its the Government who loses revenue if MATD truck directly to China. MATD dont care where its processed, all cost of sales can be claimed back.

So please, if you want to try to spread lies in order to try to get people to sell their stock - try harder and try doing so with facts :) :) :)

QUOTE///////taxibabe 11 Oct '19 - 16:01 - 3816 of 3819(premium)
I for one to not believe a farm in by the Chinese will be in the company's interest but since they have the only refinery in the area it's forced on MATD and so it will be on their terms not a cash strapped junior explorer like MATD.//////UNQUOTE

The target is 200 bopd AFTER fracture stimulation.

That is the target for Heron-1. If they can get that without fracture stimulation its fabulous news.

The big buys will be worked trades......meaning they will get reported when filled or reported end of the day. Therefore they may be reported as sells at the time of reporting, but will be buys.

Just got to watch the price action.......price rising then the big trades are buys.

1 million buy there, delayed reported so it shows as a sell.

Mike will only release after all the zones are tested and everything is complete, is what I think.

The target is 200 bopd AFTER fracture stimulation.

If this flow at that level BEFORE fracking thats wonderful.

If it flows in excess of that level BEFORE fracking, its amazing.

Going to be very interesting when we get news of what flows have been achieved. Even 100 bopd AFTER stimulation is commercial.

With regards to production, all they need to do is install the pump (they have in stock) and storage and thats it.......production is trucked a short distance up the road to the existing infrastructure and unloaded. If Heron-1 is commercial there is a chance of first production before year end.

If there is any leak it will not be Gazelle. Gazelle will undergo the same process as Heron........there will be news on oil shows or not and that the well has to be tested........ with the same testing rig currently at Heron.

Therefore, as with Heron, any declaration of commerciality can only come after flow testing with the testing rig.

If there has been any leak.....it will be a leak of flow testing news.......perhaps the first zone tested has flowed well........and thats now leaking. Each zone will be tested on its own in isolation of the other zones in the well to be tested.

Results of flow testing will be released when all zones are tested.....so it may be some time away yet ?

Just a reminder what is at stake here with Heron-1.

Size estimate on Pmean pre drill is 25 MMBO. Worth 18p a share, and would be 9p a share post any 50% farm out to PetroChina where PetroChina then pay for the development wells.

MATD have 3 pumps in stock, so if the well flows they can simply put a pump in place and start production very very soon, the CEO hoped maybe before year end, although Q1 looks more likely, but who knows.

The reservoir in this southerly location has better permeability and better porosity than pre drill estimates. This means that more oil and easier to flow. Therefore potentially the 25MMBO might be higher.

The reservoir was also encountered higher than expected, this means that there should be a greater area as there will be more before the water/oil line is hit.....bigger area means more oil as well.

Potentially Heron maybe 40MMBO....which would be 29p a share to MATD, or 14.5p a share post a 50% farm out to PetroChina.

Thats ignoring Gazelle where drilling results are due end of October.

So the upside is significant......if Heron-1 flows oil.

And the flow tests results are due before the end of October all being well.

Arden increase target price to 600p

Flash note in the link below:

https://ufile.io/5cl8blvj

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You can also assume this was known well in advance......by the fact the news is out on the Capital Markets Day by JOG in the City today.

They will now be showing off their CPR and presentations to interested parties.

Feedback from todays CMD will be very interesting.

You can perhaps go backwards and in hindsight the wording that Equinor could farm in for basically nothing, was the reason Equinor allowed themselves to be associated with the proposals such that JOG were in a better position to get the licenses awarded to them 100% and get hold of the GBA project. Equinor being associated with it only in effect to boost the chances of JOG getting awarded all those licenses. Bit of back scratching.

Equinor served their purpose for JOG in that with them associated with the project JOG have been granted the licenses.

Was that the plan from the start ? Who knows, all we know now is JOG have a very valuable asset, a great CPR, loads of proven oil......and valued at peanuts.

Makes it a great buy at these sub 200p levels, I added more.

I did not say the CMD is for Equinor. What I said was what will be shown at the CMD will also be presented to the team at Equinor at a meeting with them, whenever that is.

There is due diligence to be done by Equinor, they will not be jumping in willy nilly. JOG will have to present all their plans to a team at Equinor at some time - for a final decision to be made.

What I said was........what will be presented at the CMD will be near the same as what will be presented to Equinor, less some technical of course.

I would expect it will go to the end of the 3 month period before Equinor say yes or no. There is no rush, they are partners. If Equinor have any questions based on what JOG present to them soon I am sure there could be an extension to the 3 months if needed.

I mean, you dont set a 3 month period unless you have things to do in those 3 months to get things ready for a presentation to Equinor.

I expect the CMD on the 8th of October to be the forerunner to the Equinor presentation that JOG will make to them, ahead of them giving the final yes or no to moving forward.

JOG will present this to the City during the CMD and judge the level of interest there for funding options.

They will then present to Equinor for them to say yes or no.

If Equinor say yes JOG will look into the funding options based on 50% share.

If Equinor say no JOG will look into the funding options based on current 100% share.

These will of course be farm out, debt etc....

The CMD will be a good look at what JOG is planning to do to develop the GBA.

Gazelle should be complete week commencing 21st October. In the event of a discovery then the well testing rig will move straight from Heron-1 location to Gazelle-1 and test there.

So the news flow should be :

Gazelle-1 drill results or Heron-1 flow test results

then

the other one of Gazelle-1 drill results or Heron-1 flow test results

then

Gazelle-1 flow testing results (in the event of an oil strike)