Member Info for Proselenes

Its going to hand around 0.75p until all the overhang shares and cleared and then its going to rocket upwards..........quite simple.

Will not go below 0.7p - stagnation will end soon and the price will rise.

Exactly bambulka........exactly.

Thats why I was buying like crazy at 3p.

At 3p the same people saying there is now a placing, were saying it looks bad and Heron will not flow......they were wrong then, they are wrong again.

Their sole aim is to scare people into selling, nothing more, nothing less.

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The plan has always been to farm out Heron - that was the plan from when the drilling plans for Block XX were made years ago.

PetroChina told MATD - find oil - we are extremely interested in farming in. But we are not farming in until you find oil.

Now they have oil there are a few hoops to jump through.

Extended well testing and pressure/flow - in process.
Reprocess the whole of Block XX data based on the new information gained from drilling.
Apply for Exploitation License (which allows production to start).

At this stage then the farm in is likely to happen.

So in the weeks ahead we should see:

Lots of PR - Mike will be busy doing interviews and spreading the word about what MATD have found and the current situation and immediate future plans.

Finalisation of Heron testing.

AGM

Re-processing of the Block XX data complete - with upgrades and new leads.

Exploitation license awarded.

Production will commence from xxxx

Farm in discussions ongoing

Farm in concluded (PetroChina to pay for xx number of development and appraisal wells). PC can probably get wells costs down to 1M USD per well (based on doing an initial 50 off wells)

Now, whilst the plan has always been to farm out, the question remains as Heron is now way bigger than expected and way better than expected - do MATD go it alone ?

Cancelling the Raptor drill gives them enough cash to do another Heron well. Get Heron-1 on production asap as soon as the Exploitation license is given, start generating that income, then apply some bank debt.

20M dollars bank loan secured with the Heron production area (post Exploitation License award) would give around 15 wells of drilling.

15 wells could be generating 2M US$ a month or more in cash income by year end. So - do MATD go it alone ? or farm out ?

Waiting for Mikes interviews in the coming 2 weeks to get an idea on his plans.

This was the JOG share price when the first well missed, then the sidetrack hit in 2017.

https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=chartscreenshot&u=CMH%2FAX%2FQy9VDjBdkOci4oyk07jvHZov1WzjyW8Cl9MU%3D

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So we have a new target on the sidetrack and then some days after that we see a new Oil Discharge permit applied for.

Would suggest that, with the sudden buying and share price rises......the original well missed, they did a sidetrack and struck oil and that oil is why they needed the new oil discharge permit.

Jolly good..........now is it a biggie, is this the extension of the Tain..... ?

Exciting times.

Looks like the original well from JOG on Verbier, where it missed the target then they did the sidetrack and struck oil.

If the target location changes but surface location stays the same, the new wellbore is called a geological sidetrack. If a sidetrack is made to bypass an obstruction while the surface and target locations remain the same, this is called a mechanical sidetrack.

Just repost my earlier post.........

Derampers........Sat 22:51
The derampers (and those who missed out or badly called MATD wrongly - like OilManJim) are going to ignore production, they are going to suggest this is like offshore and will take billions to develop - LOL, they are going to say no cashflow in 2020 - total horse****e - , they are going to lie it will be 2099 before first production - basically they are just going to spout lots of nonsense because either they are just jealous toads who missed out, or they want to buy in cheap so want to push the price down by getting people to sell.

Anyone talking of the need for a placing - utter nonsense. They cancelled Velociraptor so they are fully funded in 2020 and can get Heron on to production in Q1.

If they drill no more wildcats they can get Heron on production and then pursue bank debt to develop Heron - which means no placings - which means they are in a strong position to negotiate with PetroChina that they pay a big cost to farm in.

EG....they are looking after shareholders interests. One would not rule out a fund raise when the share price is much higher and Heron is flowing well and cash is piling into the bank account, but it will not be below the 10p per share level the Directors purchased bucket loads of shares at imo.

At that stage they will have all new leads and prospects on Block XX, the Raptors on Block V, cash flow coming in from Heron as its in production, farm out done - and so with that strong position, then its time to raise a little to do some exploration drills.

The derampers (and those who missed out or badly called MATD wrongly - like OilManJim) are going to ignore production, they are going to suggest this is like offshore and will take billions to develop - LOL, they are going to say no cashflow in 2020 - total horse****e - , they are going to lie it will be 2099 before first production - basically they are just going to spout lots of nonsense because either they are just jealous toads who missed out, or they want to buy in cheap so want to push the price down by getting people to sell.

Anyone talking of the need for a placing - utter nonsense. They cancelled Velociraptor so they are fully funded in 2020 and can get Heron on to production in Q1.

If they drill no more wildcats they can get Heron on production and then pursue bank debt to develop Heron - which means no placings - which means they are in a strong position to negotiate with PetroChina that they pay a big cost to farm in.

EG....they are looking after shareholders interests. One would not rule out a fund raise when the share price is much higher and Heron is flowing well and cash is piling into the bank account, but it will not be below the 10p per share level the Directors purchased bucket loads of shares at imo.

At that stage they will have all new leads and prospects on Block XX, the Raptors on Block V, cash flow coming in from Heron as its in production, farm out done - and so with that strong position, then its time to raise a little to do some exploration drills.

As for production.

Firstly, the Mongolian PSC terms are one of the best in the world. You can even reclaim the cost of transport of the oil when you sell it......

Heron-1 production requires very little. The plan is either to truck just up the road to the PetroChina facility and offload it, or truck just over the border and sell directly.

PetroChina have expressed a desire to utilise their spare capacity, so its up to them to make a good offer to MATD (low cost) or MATD can truck across the border. Whatever, the cost of transport MATD can reclaim under the PSC terms.

I would expect production flows from Q1. Very little further cost to MATD now for Heron-1 production as production will be trucked from the well head to sale.

First up they need to do the reservoir work and submit all the into to the government to get the Exploitation License awarded. This allows them to go straight on to Test Production (in effect full production but classed as Test for the sake of the paperwork).

So with production now just months away - which opens the bank debt route, and discussions to go on with PetroChina about farm in once the exploitation licenses is approved......exciting times.

Ahead we have :

Next week and the week after - interviews and PR events.
Week after that AGM and further update.
Heron-1 testing completed, maybe update.
Exploitation award.
Heron update.
Gazelle update.
Block XX update, new leads and prospects (expecting some big things from Erdenetsagaan area following Gazelle proving the Strat Trap Play)
Farm in discussions.
Production planning

Loads going on.

Difficult to pinpoint it exactly how much cash they have. We can only go on forecasts.

So if you add on the small extra cost from the delay at Heron and take off Velociraptor, they are funded to end 2020 and will have around 3M cash left end of 2020 based on Heron not flowing and no oil production. EG they can go all next year with zero revenue if they dont drill the Raptor.

Now we know Heron is flowing and they will have production. They will have revenue and this now opens up the bank debt avenue to fund development.

Lets not forget, the Directors ploughed loads of money in for shares at 10p - they will want to see a profit on that.

Which is why the wildcatting is stopped now, focus is on Block XX, farm out, production, revenues coming in. Get the true value of Heron in the share price, the upsides of Gazelle, the upsides of Block XX.

Screw the Raptors for now.......they are not a priority. Cash flow asap is, and farm out discussions. No need for a placing, which is of course upsetting those who desire and want to see MATD share price down and post as much lies as they can to try to get people to sell.......

Tynanhi - Joined 25th October2019

Posted on only I3E and all on 25th October 2019

Looks to me like a panicking shorter signing up new user names all over the place. LOL

ColonolDrake, you seem to be a very bitter person......looks like you made a fool of yourself recently with your posts of late and now being bitter.

Believe me when I say, enjoy your life, be positive on shares you hold. The constant negativity on shares you do not even own is a recipe for a heart attack and a lonely sad life. Your doing nobody any favours and it just looks very sad.

Buy some stocks - concentrate on being positive on them - and dont worry about the rest of us, we are more than happy :)

Block V they know oil is there, but only have 1 real well of data. I believe thats why they wanted to drill a quick and cheap well there to test the Raptor theory. Block V is very much at the first stages....might take 3 more dusters to find oil or the Raptors might deliver oil next drill. But its still much higher risk than simply now focusing on Block XX and unlocking that potential. My guess is that they may try to do Velociraptor late in 2020 once they have revenue coming in from Heron.

This is why its no surprise to me to see them now openly saying they will reprocess and reevaluate all of Block XX. Gazelle has opened up new proven play types to be seriously looked into - large prospects around Erdenetsagaan. Heron could be 3 times bigger than the current estimate of 25 MMBO recoverable. So I believe the immediate focus is now Block XX and maybe one well on Block V late in 2020 once they have good revenue coming in from Block XX and any farm out is concluded.

The company is in a very strong position now, much stronger than they were back in April. 10p a share for what they have now is not a high expectation, and with Mike soon to be out telling his story to the city and the institutions we should see some strong gains ahead and people begin to understand what a very good position MATD have now.

I dont think Gazelle was bad news only, but it could be construed as such. I would class it more as "surprising". Surprise downside in that the main target was not there, surprise upside as it confirmed that the secondary target was good, that the upper area is very much mature for oil generation (proven by NGL wet gas and a 3M net oil pay zone) and that this proves the stratigraphic trap play type of which there are a number of very big ones in Block XX.

So short term down, long term big upside - so Gazelle is not over, and its why its been cased and suspended. Proven mature NGL and oil being generated in the shale. Proven good reservoir sands in the strat pinch out. Yes Gazelle was sub-optimal location for the secondary target as its aim was the primary, but what if now...for an optimal located well on Gazelle ?

What I would say is that Mongolia is not a simple geologic area and with very limited number of wells drilled, its in its infancy. The more wells drilled, the more well data, the more geologic data the more it will progress and the easier it will be to find more oil.

How many dusters have been drilled in the North Sea - many many. Its now mature with good understanding but still you will see duster after duster drilled by the big players.

Geologically you have to test theories against data, refine the data, do it again, refine the data, do it again and over and over and success will follow.

MATD in April were still guessing - Three wells later MATD's knowledge is vastly improved - they know that Gazelle secondary strat trap play is proven. They know Heron is proven. They know primary targets at Red Deer and Gazelle are not proven. They have 3 wells of data now to reinterpret into the complete Block. This will lead to upgrades, new prospects, bigger prospects and all which will have a much higher CoS now.

I think Block XX will be the focus of 2020 now - there is potentially another 600 MMBO of recoverable oil to be discovered there - so given the impressive data they now have - you exploit that.

Lockyer, best to not get carried away. Acknowledge the upside potential but dont plan on it or bank on it.

Feet on the ground always :)

Fingers crossed......... will be a massive rerating if S1 delivers with oil.

Heron Pre-drill estimate

Heron 165 MMBO OIP with 15% RF giving 25MMBO recoverable.

So why is Mike so excited and delirious ?

Net Pay is bigger than expected as per old RNS - TICK

Porosity is way better than expected - TICK

Permeability is way better than expected - TICK

Structure 5 meters higher than pre-drill estimate, so its bigger - TICK

Flow rates (not stimulated and natural flow - wow factor) - TICK

165MMBO plus 20% for better net pay = +33MMBO

165MMBO plus 15% for better porosity = +24 MMBO

165MMBO plus 10% as bigger area = +16.5 MMBO

So now Heron might well be 165+33+24+16.5 = 238.5MMBO OIP

Now........lets say the RF is not 15% but given the very light oil and the high permeability its more like 30%......

Now means Heron is looking at being 71.5 MMBO recoverable. Which is currently 100% owned.

Now you might see why Mike is pretty damn pleased and beaming from ear to ear. BUT BUT BUT, dont forget that Gazelle has been cased and will be tested in future.

Gazelle may be the key to some very serious upside. We have NGL's in the wet gas, a lot of it and then also 3M of net oil pay and this was drilled at the fringe. So not only may Gazelle deliver something important, it will deliver some very serious upside from similar strat trap plays down at the Erdenetsagaan area........ones which are multiple times the size of Heron - a few over a hundred million MMBO recoverable targets and all there in Block XX at the southerly end of the Tamtsag basin.

Lots of upsides and upgrades to come out yet..........expect to see many interviews and loads of PR over the coming weeks as MATD have a very good story to tell now and will be a producer very soon and generating their own cash.

Got to sit back, relax and wait.

News flow ahead is significant.

Heron size upgrade.
Gazelle post well evaluation news and upsides for Block XX strat trap plays
Block XX new leads and prospects based on all 2019 drilling results.
Farm out discussions later.

As crazy as it sounds, when MATD farm out 50% of Heron you should see the price double. EG 18p of value based on 25MMBO but being valued at 25% due to capex needed for development wells. Secure farm out and development costs, then the remaining 50% can be valued properly..... eg 9p So 100% of 50% is better than 25% of 100% valuation :)

Lots of news ahead, lots of value to out, lots of upgrades - Rome was not built in a day and share prices dont go straight up (and if they do, they often fall back down again).

Share price rises need churn and consolidation, old sellers and new buyers, up and consolidate and then up again and consolidate etc.....

Share prices are short term like voting machines and long term valuation machines. Value will always out in the end.

End of sermon........ LOL :)

A note for the derampers as well.........as I said, there has been no ADDITIONAL testing costs........they did not even need to stimulate. Learn to read English and learn to know whats going on.

Oilmanjim ? MuppetmanJim more like !!

Quite simply, the additional costs were the delays with the G2G permit when the rig went on standby........ the sentence did NOT infer additional testing costs. The sentence clearly meant the additional delay costs and the ongoing testing costs.......

So there.........

Lets play a game called make the bird fly.

Pre-drill estimate

Heron 165 MMBO OIP with 15% RF giving 25MMBO recoverable.

So why is Mike so excited and delirious ?

Net Pay is bigger than expected as per old RNS - TICK

Porosity is way better than expected - TICK

Permeability is way better than expected - TICK

Structure 5 meters higher than pre-drill estimate, so its bigger - TICK

Flow rates (not stimulated and natural flow - wow factor) - TICK

165MMBO plus 20% for better net pay = +33MMBO

165MMBO plus 15% for better porosity = +24 MMBO

165MMBO plus 10% as bigger area = +16.5 MMBO

So now Heron might well be 165+33+24+16.5 = 238.5MMBO OIP

Now........lets say the RF is not 15% but given the very light oil and the high permeability its more like 30%......

Now means Heron is looking at being 71.5 MMBO recoverable. Which is currently 100% owned.

Now you might see why Mike is pretty damn pleased and beaming from ear to ear.