Member Info for Proselenes

Dont say sorry flava.......... if people are silly enough to sell based on nothing (like they did last Friday and also today) then more fool them.

Heron-1 results should be out Wed/Thu next week........and Red Deer-1 results the week after.

Last Friday the end of the week sellers managed to push the price from 8.4p down to 5p along with all the nutters on here saying Heron license problems, duster, company bankrupt and placing..........

And then this Monday it rose and rose all week.

Now again on Friday the traders sell all their shares but the price fall is less than last time......as people are wise to them now.

The traders will be looking to buy in again on Monday.........so expect a weekend of "No news Monday is bad.........." as they will want a cheap entry price on Monday morning to trade again with................

Monday too quick for logging........they will probably be logging Sunday.........so news around Wed or Thu I reckon.

There WILL NOT be news on Monday.

The company said DURING THE WEEK COMMENCING 9th Sept.......which means news sometime between Monday and Friday.

Whats the point.

Even the final well......Gazelle......is worth 8p a share on a strike.

Why on earth do people worry so much...........let it go.............you have Heron then Red Deer then Gazelle..........just let it run..........relax and what will be will be.............. win or lose.

I have more MATD stock than that sell was.............thats nothing big chaps.

I would expect news on Wednesday or Thursday............

Same last Friday........crashed on Friday.......run up all this week.........bound to have a lot of profit taking today. It was 8.4p last Friday morning......crashed to 5p....and back up to 8p.

All that happened was this Friday the crash was less. I would remind everyone to remember last Friday............ LOL

Will start red.......and will end blue.

MM's will chase the sellers down first making it red and then rise it up to get buyers coming in.

IMO

Going to be a very exciting 2 weeks.........

For info in case they strike oil :

Heron-1 smallest size 11 MMBO recoverable - 8p a share
Heron-1 Pmean size 25 MMBO recoverable - 18p a share
Heron-1 Best case size 42 MMBO recoverable - 30p a share

Red Deer-1 smallest size 20 MMBO recoverable - 15p a share
Red Deer-1 Pmean size 43 MMBO recoverable - 32p a share
Red Deer-1 Best case size 82 MMBO recoverable - 61p a share

Gazelle-1 smallest size 6 MMBO recoverable - 4p a share
Gazelle-1 Pmean size 12 MMBO recoverable - 8p a share
Gazelle-1 Best case size 22 MMBO recoverable - 14p a share

Heron-1 high chance of success (appraisal)
Red Deer-1 lowest chance of success (exploration)
Gazelle-1 high chance of success (appraisal)

Uncrossing Trade (UT) was 8.55p so MATD opens in the morning at 8.55p.

Looks like a red start then, MM's might shake it in an attempt to get some stock, I predict a solid strong finish and blue - as news on Heron-1 could be anytime from Monday morning onwards now.

Just reposting in case anyone missed it.

For your weekend reading.

21 page September 2019 note on JOG by Arden.

https://uploadfiles.io/k1e9wtbs

.

Looks like some day trader shorters are trying it on. If they cannot generate a fall expect them to rush to buy back later.

For your weekend reading.

21 page September 2019 note on JOG by Arden.

https://uploadfiles.io/k1e9wtbs

.

The Pmean figure is what is used for the 25 MMBO figure. Whether that is bigger or smaller depends on net pay, reservoir quality etc...... All hangs on the logging results and then flow testing that would follow a discovery.

The upside for Heron is Recoverable 42 MMBO (100% owned) - which could mean that Heron-1 gives MATD more proven oil than ECO (who only have circa 37 MMBO with their 15% of Jethro so far).

Exciting.......... :)

Yep, the UT trade (Uncorossing Trade) is the closing price at which it opens tomorrow, so opening price will be 8.25p and will be blue straight away.

I make that nearly 1m shares purchased (some delayed and hidden as sells but they were buys) purchased in 20 minutes from 4pm. Interesting............. Heron-1 target zone penetrated ?

The various valuations scenarios for JOG by Arden:

https://i.ibb.co/C7J7nB1/val.jpg

.

The conclusion from the new Arden note makes interesting reading. For the first time they mention potential farm out.

So the news flow to get the JOG price up to a more proper nigher value is.... Equinor deal, farm out, CPR's and p2170 update and drilling program news......all possibly in the final months of 2019 it seems. Loads of news ahead.

Conclusion

The award of Buchan,J2 and Glenn is a very substantial event for JOG, transforming asset value and the company’s activity schedule going forward. The various valuations that we have set out above show a very wide potential range, but even the lowest of all of these, at 292p, is materially above current levels. As such, we are of the view that the value of the asset awards is yet to be fully appreciated by the market.

The route to realising a greater portion of the value of JOG’s assets is also set out above, and includes progression of the development plan, potential farm out, new CPRs and clarity on the 2020/21 P2170 work programme in the coming months. This should then be followed by further development planning progress,potential P2170 drilling in 2020 and potential drilling on the new exploration assets, alongside the ever-present possibility of production acquisitions.

The substantial discount to our base case risked NAV, combined with the upcoming newsflow, supports our Buy recommendation and 550p target price.

3 September 2019
Jersey Oil and Gas* (JOG LN) – Arden note released
Buy, Current Price: 239p Target Price: 550p

Key Points: JOG recently announced the award of substantial new assets in the UK North Sea. This note maps out the newsflow we would expect this to generate as the company moves towards development, while also laying out a series of valuation scenarios. This all well supports our Buy recommendation and 550p price target.

Significant asset additions. JOG recently announced 100% award of the Buchan oil field and Buchan Andrew, J2 and Glenn oil discoveries. These contain gross mean contingent resources of 119mmboe – a huge uplift on JOG’s existing Verbier 5mmboe net 2C position.

Buchan is development ready. Buchan is an existing field with all the required data to be redeveloped: JOG is now beginning to work on a new field development plan.

Share price not yet fully reflecting new assets. JOG shares have already made significant gains. Our modelling indicates that they are still substantially undervaluing the new asset position, however.

Way forward to help demonstrate veracity of new asset value. There are a number of waypoints over the coming months and years that should help demonstrate JOG’s asset value, including development plan submission (mid-2021), potential farm out (50% option granted to Equinor expires in Q4 2019; numerous other potential partners otherwise), completion of funding and FID, and first oil (targeted for 2024). We could also see further P2170 drilling in 2020.

Our modelling shows a wide range of potential valuations. This note includes a number of modelled scenarios for JOG’s assets, and we also look at UK North Sea transaction multiples. Our base case returns a JOG risked NAV of 597p, but our overall range runs from 292p to 2,664p.

Buy recommendation, 550p target. Going forward we expect the outcome of the Equinor option, new JOG CPRs, confirmation of the 2020 P2170 work programme, potential 2020 drilling and periodic Buchan development planning updates. This, alongside the underlying asset value, supports our Buy recommendation and 550p target.