Member Info for PRK1

Snoopz, you are right, AST are a small outfit chosen by a multinational Telco to launch 1st generation satellite to SIM service across Europe. Will it succeed, on time? Who knows, but you have to have more than one iron in the fire to be successful. All this "tried and tested" confidence. Lots of historic products fall into that category. Doesn't mean they sell. BT will always make a living as the major fibre connectivity supplier in the UK. But that's not a great wallet share any more. It's electricity. It's water supply.

Snoopz, not Starlink, which I think will only ever be a wholesale supplier (probably to BT since they won't have an in-house capability). The competitive threat is more likely to be Vodafone AST. There is still some time to go before they get going but once they do it will put further pressure on BTB and especially EE to defend market share.

Fleccy, low earth orbit satellites will not compete against conventional mobile networks, you are right. What they will do is enable a generation of always-on, AI driven, autonomous devices. The Internet of Things. This market has been hampered by the inability to get mobile. With a satellite network providing true uninterrupted coverage, the potential is there for all sorts of new business. IoT doesn't require lots of bandwidth. Just 100% coverage. Any mobile operator who can offer that has a huge advantage across numerous industries. Now I don't think this is the be-all-and-end-all. But it's one example of how market demand might form away from fixed access. You seem so certain that the only option is BT fibre, but you don't have that crystal ball any more than me or anyone else. It's not reliable to bet on a company with one product in one country and say, this is inevitable. That's real old school BT think. It's arrogant and dumb. BT's quarterly results are the only hard evidence to go on and they don't paint a good picture

If technology moves in some of the several possible directions that the future might hold, then BT could end up as kings of betamax.

Only if people want to buy what they are selling. And they aren't selling much other than fibre connections. Why don't you look at the insipid, declining numbers coming in from the business and ask yourself why the SP almost doubled in a year. Does that not seem like maybe it's just a little overcooked???

Fleccy:

BT remains on the 'sell' list of two major investment banks https://share.google/GoGNVpJyTz6EZ0CbK

I'm really not hostile to BT, but I'm sceptical about the near doubling of their share price in the last 18 months given the disconnect between what they project and their current performance. I understand that some optimism for the future is fair, but not to this extent. Usually company share prices rise because their quarterly updates show they are smashing it. But BT are not smashing it. They have positioned themselves as failsafe once they've rolled out fibre, and the market has put them in a bubble on that promise. Meanwhile they lose market share and lean ever heavier on cost cutting.

I know the company extremely well

Snoopz, it's true that the BT share price soared, but it's founded on optimism for the future rather than current performance. £1.46 is now a bit low. I'd buy at £1.55 now. Don't trust a business losing market share when they only have one market

Consensus fair value is 86p. I doubt it will rise higher than that until the run in to H1 results

Fleccy, I hear you saying this on a regular basis. My thoughts are this - all well and good but where is the growth? Where are the attachment sales? Why is business market share tanking? Savings only deliver value if revenue stays constant or rises. But BT is shrinking in its only market. If this doesn't reverse, the only benefit of cost savings is to slow the rate of decline.

The real question here relates to smugness. Who, amongst the know-it-alls arguing here, is most full of themselves?

92p for me please

Jim, agreed that 90p is probably a ceiling although I'm not sure it's that strong. Future movement will depend on H1 results. Last quarter the SP rose in anticipation, and I think the same will happen next time. On track results or better will take the price over £1

This share is going to hit 90p this week. Or a meringue?

No worries Roofer. Can you put me down for 87.2p this week please

85.8p please

83.2p please. Next notable rise will be on the last few weeks before H1 update.. hopefully then to break 90p

The reason I don't give a damn about broker downgrades is that they only see Germany. Meanwhile Qatar, Egypt, Turkey and subsaharan Africa are showing double digit growth. The new Vodafone is not a restoration of the old.

https://www.investing.com/news/company-news/vodafone-qatar-h1-2025-presentation-revenue-growth-accelerates-to-105-guidance-raised-93CH-4162396

One thing I'm looking for is the point of resistance to negative events. Seems like 81p is the bottom. That's encouraging